LoadedWeapon Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 And what most of you fail to realize is that we are still playing on first months subscription. Just like me and my guild many others have already canceled there accounts. They will lose alot of subs this month and its a shame too cause I know alot of people had great expectations but just like warhammer it will be to late before they fix anything.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROSS- Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 And what most of you fail to realize is that we are still playing on first months subscription. Just like me and my guild many others have already canceled there accounts. They will lose alot of subs this month and its a shame too cause I know alot of people had great expectations but just like warhammer it will be to late before they fix anything.. a number of people said this very thing, oh about 30 days ago when it was coming up on Jan. 20. didn't pan out as predicted. and if those sales charts are true, then most people are past their free month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anetsetsouken Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 And what most of you fail to realize is that we are still playing on first months subscription. Just like me and my guild many others have already canceled there accounts. They will lose alot of subs this month and its a shame too cause I know alot of people had great expectations but just like warhammer it will be to late before they fix anything.. This is actually wrong. Investor call on 02/02/12, launch on 12/20, end of first month on 01/20. The sub numbers included the people who left after month 1. Also, there is actually their. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordgubben Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Can anyone explain to me the almost obsessive interest in subscriber numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJMTL Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Can anyone explain to me the almost obsessive interest in subscriber numbers? The average person's life is a bore fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
commonperson Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Until Bioware issue some server stats that's all anyone can do. Personally I have characters located on 3 servers and in the first few weeks I always had to sit in a queue to join. Over the months the queue time went down and now, even at peak time, I never see any of them as being full. True but I'm always seeing a healthy population when I log in, that's the thing it's all conjecture right now. We have no numbers but rough estimates based on what we can see and while ques have disappeared and there's been at least a 300,000 drop off from the 2 million sales (not including Origin numbers) there's also been server optimization that could impact ques, populations shifts, etc. It's hard to tell anything solid at this point. We'll have a better idea in the next couple of months as more numbers come out. Here's the thing at 2 million sales at the 59.00 price point (So eliminating the deluxe and collector's editions) there's 118 million in sales. So at 200 million to make that leaves 82 million not recoverd. First month we've got 1.7 million in subscriptions that's an additional 25.5 million (rounded up by 20k and change.) So even with another .7 million drop off bringing us to a 50% drop off from initial purchase over the next three months (using an immediate drop of of .7 million) you've got just shy of 45 million. So in three months costs will have been recouped and everything beyond that is gravy. Now this involves some rounding, speculation and unknown variables (like the number of digital copies which have a higher return on investment than a physical copy which has to cover production costs) but that's the thing, right now we're dealing with al ot of unknowns. There will always be a loss leader when dealing with a long term project like this. It will make money, it's a matter of how soon and how much. With dramatic losses in subscribers we're looking at a possible profit in just shy of one quarter. Nothing to be ashamed of on this scope. We need more data but honestly it's not likely to be forthcoming at least not until the next investors call. What can be said is they've done remarkably well at launch, if they continue to improve, update and respond to customers they will hone the product in to something with some serious longevity. Let's just hope they are able to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
commonperson Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Most likely he's a paid forum poster, if you don't know what that is do a google search. It's actually a business. Which is pretty sad and pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
commonperson Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Things don't look that great post launch. Global First Ten Weeks (Units) Week Ending Week Weekly Change Total 24th December 2011 1 1,453,494 N/A 1,453,494 31st December 2011 2 316,194 -78.2% 1,769,688 07th January 2012 3 111,762 -64.7% 1,881,450 14th January 2012 4 67,742 -39.4% 1,949,192 21st January 2012 5 59,131 -12.7% 2,008,323 28th January 2012 6 49,075 -17.0% 2,057,398 04th February 2012 7 36,972 -24.7% 2,094,370 Source; vgchartz Which doesn't include digital sales and yeah you think they're going to sell a million units every month? There's a limited market to deal with and there are several regions where it's unreleased where it will pick up a spike. Also almost 2.1 million sales is pretty good. That's about 55% of their costs recouped for production right there if you assume that they are just buying regular edition. You'll see drop off in a product like this over the course of a few months period. It'll stabalize and then become a long burn. That's to be expected, look at the sales of any game (including WoW) you'll see the same trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Arcane- Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Just wait for the player dropoff in the next 1-2 months to affect share price. SELL SELL SELL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
commonperson Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Can anyone explain to me the almost obsessive interest in subscriber numbers? It's the MMO player equivilance of a small wang syndrome. Because some one doesn't like a game and they feel they have to prove how much better they are they belittle a product or person to show how much better they are. In this case it's sub-numbers what many of these people fail to take in to account is even at a 50% drop off they will have paid for the product within or just after 1 quarter and past that point there is substantial profit (since technology is in place for server maintainance and structure they wont need to beef up there and they have the teams in place so they can work within those limits and maybe shave off staff as they become redundant.) People complain and see this as a sign of weakness but much of design work in video games is contract or project driven so these people will be realigned as necisary. The problem with gamers is they have an incessent need to justify their actions. They can't just not like something they have to damn everyone who likes it as the spawn of the devil. They are worse than religious fundimentalists at times, add to this the paid fourm posters who will leave out facts like the pending release to multiple "Red zones" which will drive up numbers even further. Facts don't matter to these people it's just urinating on people's parades that make them feel big and happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
commonperson Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Just wait for the player dropoff in the next 1-2 months to affect share price. SELL SELL SELL! And again EA have said with a 1 million user base they'll be making a tidy profit which is a 50% drop off. Also in the next 2 to 3 months they will be opening up sales in a lot of red regions which will add users to the base plus there are bound to be drifters who come back. Until we see numbers it's all speculation and it's silly "let's buy or sell based on no data" that we have to thank Wall Street for it's "stunning vision" over the last decade that's landed us in the economic trouble we're in. I'm sorry if I take Pacther's opinion based on knowledge from inside the industry, experience, and education over some arm chair game analysts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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