PjPablo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's good to see these news items. It's good to see Goldman cut earnings for EA yesterday and this company downgrade today. It's good that Deutsche Bank thinks the stock is going to $14. Why? Because that negative opinion causes companies to take notice and try to correct course. I like the game but have concerns over the future and items like this might cause EA to take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Attycuss Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 EA and Activision shares are down due to lower then expected boxed copy sales of all their games. It is also why Gamestop etc shares or financial outlooks were wrong/down. Has nothing to do with any game in particular, this all according to Forbes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fryseboks Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Because analysts are always right... http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/12/27/8-Outrageously-Flawed-Economic-Predictions.aspx#page1 In my biology class during population dynamics and ecology, our professor said that the mathematical modeling we use is very similar to the ones being used for economical analysis. The difference lies in that the biologists prediction on large are pretty accurate, while the economical predictions are seemingly 50/50, and thus random and does not really work No offense to anyone studying economics, but I found this pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZettaZonvolt Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Apart from that 85million Trion just got you mean? Following their 100milliion revenues over 10months. Just saying...the money is there but people are being more careful where they put it now. Like I said. Less keen. Trion got very lucky when they managed to persuade a bunch of big names. But comparing Trion to EA is apples and oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andryah Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Actually that isn't good at all. Analysts tend to avoid placing 'Sell' ratings on stocks so they use 'Hold' instead. When you have a stock with as many Buys as Holds/Sells that is not a good sign. Many investors screen for a large ratio of Buys to Holds before they will even consider it. The point is -----> analysts guidance has been consistent on this stock over the last 6 quarters, that is the key point in the context of the rolling "THE SKY IS FALLING, YEAH" posts about one analysts revised price estimates. Stock price has also been in a fairly consistent range for the last two years. Their mean is 2.3 and has been for some time. What individual investors use as their decision points is irrelevant to the ranting attached to the threads about one analysts adjustments. If you invest on the basis of an internet news report on what one analyst thinks, you are doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adnyl Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 lol, brokers. If those people knew what they are doing, we wouldn't be where we are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grupurt Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 never trust anything from san francisco either. most corrupted city in the most corrupted state! Have to say Chicago/Illinois has SF beat by a mile.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yfelsung Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The funniest thing about the stock market is that it's an entire system made out of smoke and mirrors. A rumor here, a bad product there, and suddenly massive shifts rumble through this sea of digital money. Suddenly opinion, and not objective data, dictates the rise and fall of companies. RIM has been on their backfoot for months not because the Blackberry is necessarily an inferior product, but because the mass appeal of something like Apple adds to it's value. It's value is inflated not by facts, not by demonstrably superior stats and power, but because of the name printed on their product. EA's stock falls because some dude decides to post his opinion on something. This is why I laugh at people who actually think money is important or some sort of end within itself. Money is just ********, printed on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackfriar Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Because analysts are always right... http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/12/27/8-Outrageously-Flawed-Economic-Predictions.aspx#page1 No one says they are. But cherry picked anecdotes to prove a point is certainly no rebuttle. Even if you imagine that they are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpanisiak Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This isn't a normal market. Software lives and dies on the opinions of people and users. Your ideas about stock valuation does not apply here. Just reposting so people read it further into the topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sykologist Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 When your game is the topic of discussion on a financial website, you know your in deep trouble. Seriously. Especially when it shows up on http://www.financialwebsiteyouhaveneverheardof.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PjPablo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If you invest on the basis of an internet news report on what one analyst thinks, you are doomed. I don't. I use custom screens that I have created to get a manageable list of companies to research and then I pick them apart looking for certain key characteristics. BUT you have to realize that the market does react to this. Stock is down 5% today because of this and probably some hangover from the Goldman cut. Now is any of this relevant to gameplay? Nope. It might be relevant to the future though? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackfriar Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 In my biology class during population dynamics and ecology, our professor said that the mathematical modeling we use is very similar to the ones being used for economical analysis. The difference lies in that the biologists prediction on large are pretty accurate, while the economical predictions are seemingly 50/50, and thus random and does not really work No offense to anyone studying economics, but I found this pretty funny. It's the Freshwater/Austrian problem. There are a lot of robust economic models out there that have been effective since the days of FDR. But, alas, libertarianism hsa corrupted much of the economics profession and most of the effective models in macro economics, while effective and robust, were discarded by the idealogues led by Friedman and Greenspan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrloch Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Oh noes! SWTOR hasn't reached the 923986239569235 subs some idiot thought they might have by Jan. 2012!!!!....what does this have to do with me enjoying my SWTOR again ? Kinda true. It depends on what the investors were thinking originally. Remember, they are financial people, not necessarily gamers. If they saw "releasing what should be a popular MMO" and thought that meant WoW-like numbers, yea this game is coming nowhere near expectations. (the by far most well known MMO to non gamers) "What? It didn't get 10,000,000 players in it's first month..oooh, it isn't performing like I expected, better downgrade it." If they compares it to other popular MMOs that aren't WoW, then it's doing fine I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeodic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 While I am no means a market type person nor a stock owner I find it humorous that one video game can affect a stocks worth. Wouldn't that be similar to Ford's worth dropping if there was a recall on mustangs for an engine issue? This has never happened to my knowledge, but like I said I am not a market person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamuraBob_Fl Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 While I am no means a market type person nor a stock owner I find it humorous that one video game can affect a stocks worth. Wouldn't that be similar to Ford's worth dropping if there was a recall on mustangs for an engine issue? This has never happened to my knowledge, but like I said I am not a market person. Yeah and I like how everyone is ignoring that this random analyst still expects the stock to go up, just not by as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sephendrine Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well, here's the thing. Never played a game in my life based on the financial projections of the company who made it. My only concern is if I can still log in and play when I really want to. Since this game will be around for many years, I'm not panicking. Isn't it stock brokers who panic and leap out of windows? I really really really don't care about EA's stock. But I do appreciate that SWTOR is an awesome game, and I'm having a lot of fun playing it. Don't much care that some panicky fellow in Podunk who is a complete stranger to me doesn't like it and wants to worry about their market shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
themistocles Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Has anyone looked at the History of EA stock? go back to Jan of last year, 16 bucks a share. This is normal market flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aurelus Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 EA Stocks > Activision Blizzard Stocks does that mean World of Warcraft is a failure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimhand Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Take an advanced statistics or research methodology program. Most "experts" are wrong. 2/3rd of all published studies are wrong (look at that professor who did the study on Red Wine and health, who recently got slapped with a 60,000 page report on his falsifications) In the case of economists...they are wrong close to 100% of the time (a lot of people will balk at that...but it is, unfortunately, a very real figure). Now I can't recommend all of you take advanced stats or research programs. So I would recommend "Wrong" by David Freedman. Bottom line is, never trust an economists projections, predictions or concerns. The only people you should trust with matters of money are the nerdy accountants who sit in offices all day begin boring. (Economist and/or broker =/= accountant) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MMOTotal Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This is very interesting, i agree with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHagbard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's just the assesment of one guy, who doesn't even have the numbers an relies on speculation. But since stock market are also a game of psychology, I can see why a stock dips a little when some "respected anaylst"cuts his (personal) price target. All the more interesting to the MMO-community, who usually doesn't have all that much insight to do with stock markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monjiay Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 San Francisco. Stopped reading there. It's the Wall Street Journal. It says it right underneath the big Market Watch banner at the top left of the page. There is no more respected financial publication than the Wall Street Journal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talosred Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Stocks flux at the sightliest thing, till EA gives the full numbers we won't really know, one sale off or even a 10 and so on is enough to make stocks falls lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarjarloves Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 When your game is the topic of discussion on a financial website, you know your in deep trouble. so WoW is in deep trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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