Quick read on EA (SWTOR / Bioware concerned.)

[Bodypull]

Just a quick note:

 

2007 they were trading at over 50.00 USD a share

 

Next year they laid off 1500 people.

 

later they spent 300m to buy playfish (social / casual gaming.)

 

this failed, Zygna took off, and obtained a higher market capitalization as a private company. Now, after a decent IPO, they are trading with still, a higher market capitalization than Electronic Arts.

 

Now we have a company that after repeat failures (that is trading near it's all time low,) getting smacked by analysts, investors, shareholders and customers concerning the dismal launch and quality of SWTOR. This game cost EA nearly 200M to market and develop, and another 100m is Licensing (Lucas Arts, Hero Engine ect ect,) logistics and support. Just keeping the game profitable at the moment may not even be possible, with the mass exodus (some 40 percent drop in the "free month.")

 

After 1.1, many more are leaving. After Diablo 3 is launched (or MoP,) many more will leave.

 

If they don't merge servers, the game will become lopsided (more so,) and virtually unplayable ... if they merge, they will make revenue, but do not expect content updates and huge fixes (save minor ones,) which will take much longer to implement.

 

Point is, this game is a dud, and only the hard core fanboys, extreme casuals and the occasional (insert bad thing here,) will be left, and most of them will be on empire side anyway,

 

On a better note, I short sold all my EA stock and made about 122,000 USD :-) (Purchased at 14.80) (sold at 17.55)

 

I know a few C suite execs at EA, one thru my wife, two I used to work with. Each of them have sold off stock this week. My investment group has all dumped EA, and this trend is going to continue, and its current price (falling,) reflects this.

 

Opportunity Cost.

 

I posted before, this was huge. They should have stuck to Console, RPG and RTS games that have DLC and micro transactions associated with them, it's the only thing they succeed at and do reasonably well. Leave MMO's to developers and Engineer teams with talent please. Glad this game fails, EA needs to be acquired, dismantled and sold off. Bioware needs its autonomy back or be acquired by a company that will do the titles they own justice.

 

SWTOR is a failure from my personal experience (hundred and thousands back me here,) and a disaster from a business / financial perspective.

 

just read marketwatch (estimates cut ect)

 

 

Cya

 

References:

 

Estimated cut:

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-falls-on-broker-concerns-about-star-wars-2012-01-19?link=MW_home_latest_news

 

historic numbers:

http://investor.ea.com/stocklookup.cfm

 

Current price:

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/stock-price?symbol=EA

 

Sub data:

https://www.capitaliq.com/home.aspx

Edited January 19, 2012 by Bodypull

[Bodypull]

Not saying doom and gloom,

 

we are past that :-0

[imtrick]

EA's stock is down from 2007? Oh my God. Say it ain't so.

 

And please list the "hundreds and thousands" (whatever that means) of people who back you up, because I don't believe it for a second.

Edited January 19, 2012 by imtrick

[Mr_Crueak]

DUDE almost every major stock has been down since 2007....you forget about the recessions that is still going on?

[islander]

Diablo 3 is going to be underwhelming. Not terrible, just underwhelming.

 

can't argue with the rest of your points, but if you've beta tested D3 and semi-kept up on the beta forums, you'd likely come to the same conclusion.

 

I'm sure D3 will have a following. I'll still buy it, eventually.

[OBLCDiomedes]

We get it. EA is a disease. Stop beating a dead horse that's already decayed.

[Bodypull]

EA's stock is down from 2007? Oh my God. Say it ain't so.

 

LOL

 

Did you eve read.

 

It fell because they failed, laid off 1500 people.

 

Another fail trying to purchase playfish (got upset by Zygna.)

 

Another fail the next 2 MMOs launched.

 

Now this.

 

Also, its worth noting its fallen over 36 dollars a share since 07.

 

If you launched an MMO in 07, and a stock does that ... what happens tot he MMO...

 

just look at EA's MMOs for your answer.

 

Now guess what happens to SWTOR.

[Bodypull]

Diablo 3 is going to be underwhelming. Not terrible, just underwhelming.

 

can't argue with the rest of your points, but if you've beta tested D3 and semi-kept up on the beta forums, you'd likely come to the same conclusion.

 

I'm sure D3 will have a following. I'll still buy it, eventually.

 

Just an example, my point is other titles will erode more numbers, and this title is not experiencing growth.

 

net/net even more a ghost town in the near future.

 

Why? some go back to wow, some quit for this game, many are bored / fed up with EA, waiting on something new.

[freddiez]

Writing's on the wall. I saw this coming 10 years ago working in the pits of their dev studio. Marketing/IP does not replace quality product. Quality product requires strong talent and good decision-making up and down the chain. Oh well, they'll always have Fifa and Madden.

 

oh yeah...ibtl

[Bodypull]

DUDE almost every major stock has been down since 2007....you forget about the recessions that is still going on?

 

OK,

 

Not tech / gaming companies by the percentage EA has fallen. And the fail with Playfish after laying off 1500 people to make the purchase, only to get defeated in the segment by Zygna (who now has a higher market cap than the entire EA brand.)

 

When opportunities and losses like this occur, its problematic at the management / exec level, and this is a huge indicator as to the support current projects receive.

[JediMarvel]

Honestly this game had WAY to much hype and no MMO should have that much hype, they need actuall mature gamers to help this community and game grow, not a bunch of kids complaining after everything.

 

You've heard it many times before..

"Rome wasnt built in a day"

 

So what investments drop? now is the perfect time to buy when they are low because if you look at any MMO, the first year is all headaches and it takes time and the community to make a solid game. WOW didnt start getting popular till Burning Crusade.

 

Give the game time, this game suffers now because of the HYPE it was garnished.

 

 

 

NOTE: the community (majority) on this forum that are complaining are the WoWers who came to MMO's late that already had a smooth layout and game, they werent there for the vanilla days or any MMO start.. we dont need them.

 

Quit. Leave the market out of the game especially when we are slowly climbing out of a recession.

Edited January 19, 2012 by JediMarvel

[Kurenar]

Diablo 3 is going to be underwhelming. Not terrible, just underwhelming.

 

can't argue with the rest of your points, but if you've beta tested D3 and semi-kept up on the beta forums, you'd likely come to the same conclusion.

 

I'm sure D3 will have a following. I'll still buy it, eventually.

 

TOR is underwhelming. Not terrible, just underwhelming.

[Bodypull]

Honestly this game had WAY to much hype and no MMO should have that much hype, they need actuall mature gamers to help this community and game grow, not a bunch of kids complaining after everything.

 

You've heard it many times before..

"Rome wasnt built in a day"

 

So what investments drop? now is the perfect time to buy when they are low because if you look at any MMO, the first year is all headaches and it takes time and the community to make a solid game. WOW didnt start getting popular till Burning Crusade.

 

Give the game time, this game suffers now because of the HYPE it was garnished.

 

Sorry but,

 

WOW had it easy because the only options at the time was EQ and EQ2 (which didnt go over well,) and FF11 ... which wasn't bad but didn't cater to the casual gamer (that fills most of WOWs numbers.)

 

SWTOR pulls from that finite subscription pool (gamers willing to buy a game and pay per month.) and we aren;t sticking around to pay subs.

 

If it was F2p fine, I wouldnt even complain.

 

This is a subscription game and one we paid for upfront .. we deserve more and the people are speaking out!

[Maniacal]

I'm pretty sure most people, even the ones adhering so hardcore to the failing body, will admit that TOR is a pretty big disappointment out of the box as-is. There are so many things that are just a necessity ( and no, I'm not talking about damage meters or any of that crap ) to an MMORPG these days that they, for some reason, decided against at launch. When a game is obviously a rushed product, it is going to show through in quality, and it does in this game make no mistake.

 

However, STO was equally as bad at launch, yet Cryptic / Sony managed to turn it around by suddenly taking their complaints very seriously and managed to salvage something of a decent game out of it. However in the end, they had to adopt the f2p model because so many people at launch, the bulk of the population they RELIED upon for a constant sub-funding, were already jaded and done.

 

This will be Bioware and SWTOR, I have no doubts. I'm not saying they will fail and shut-down, I'm not saying they can or can't sustain a successful f2p model, I am merely saying within a year or two, this game will be forced to adopt said model purely to make a profit.

 

Steve Blum isn't cheap, after all.

[Bodypull]

TOR is underwhelming. Not terrible, just underwhelming.

 

Agreed.

 

if it was f2p after buying all would be well.

 

If it was free to try and sub based, id stick around.

 

Pay and sub for this? ... nah

[Kirjava]

I wouldn't say SWTOR has 'failed' yet. Your basing your whole argument on the assumption that everyones leaving. From what I've seen, there's a lot of people enjoying the game. In fact my server just seems to be getting bigger at the moment. Edited January 19, 2012 by Kirjava

[chton]

Diablo 3 is going to be underwhelming. Not terrible, just underwhelming.

 

can't argue with the rest of your points, but if you've beta tested D3 and semi-kept up on the beta forums, you'd likely come to the same conclusion.

 

I'm sure D3 will have a following. I'll still buy it, eventually.

 

Save the doom and gloom about D# for their forums LOL. I'm sure there won't be any people dissappointed or vowing to never buy some one product over there.

[Bodypull]

I'm pretty sure most people, even the ones adhering so hardcore to the failing body, will admit that TOR is a pretty big disappointment out of the box as-is. There are so many things that are just a necessity ( and no, I'm not talking about damage meters or any of that crap ) to an MMORPG these days that they, for some reason, decided against at launch. When a game is obviously a rushed product, it is going to show through in quality, and it does in this game make no mistake.

 

However, STO was equally as bad at launch, yet Cryptic / Sony managed to turn it around by suddenly taking their complaints very seriously and managed to salvage something of a decent game out of it. However in the end, they had to adopt the f2p model because so many people at launch, the bulk of the population they RELIED upon for a constant sub-funding, were already jaded and done.

 

This will be Bioware and SWTOR, I have no doubts. I'm not saying they will fail and shut-down, I'm not saying they can or can't sustain a successful f2p model, I am merely saying within a year or two, this game will be forced to adopt said model purely to make a profit.

 

Steve Blum isn't cheap, after all.

 

They are going to take a hit either way, and the opportunity cost alone will cause ehads to roll at EA (finally.)

 

That said, I think they will have to adopt a different model to justify us staying. Further, there are just too many titles on the horizon that seem much better than this game.

 

I'll play D3 for awhile, than 38studios RPG and MMO at launch for example. Might try DOTA 2 (MOBA genre,) and there is always wow to fall back on and league of legends.

[Gruntcruncher]

LOl, you trying hard much?

 

You posted the exact same cut n paste post on the MMOchamps SWTOR forums.

 

Btw, you do not speak for me, so your assumtion of "many" people is as false as my claim that many people think I am a god.

 

Personaly don't care about the game or its fail/win. Just the fact you hyperbole and try and include me in your figures by using words such as "many, hundreds and thousands of people" etc. Where as you have no direct proof. Unless you can go out and name every single person who supports your view and also are willing to personaly attatch there signature to your statements.

 

You cannot, No? Fine, stick to using " IMO" Or I think.

[Genesizs]

LOl, you trying hard much?

 

You posted the exact same cut n paste post on the MMOchamps SWTOR forums.

 

Btw, you do not speak for me, so your assumtion of "many" people is as false as my claim that many people think I am a god.

 

Personaly don't care about the game or its fail/win. Just the fact you hyperbole and try and include me in your figures by using words such as "many, hundreds and thousands of people" etc. Where as you have no direct proof. Unless you can go out and name every single person who supports your view and also are willing to personaly attatch there signature to your statements.

 

You cannot, No? Fine, stick to using " IMO" Or I think.

 

 

lol you will notice soon enough ...

 

i dont want this game to fail ..

 

but i will be laughing in your face if your still subscribed to this game when it fail and it will if they dont take some drastic messures soon , looking for a roup over 2 hours couse tere only 20 people left on the lfeet on primetimes in weekends

[Maniacal]

They are going to take a hit either way, and the opportunity cost alone will cause ehads to roll at EA (finally.)

 

That said, I think they will have to adopt a different model to justify us staying. Further, there are just too many titles on the horizon that seem much better than this game.

 

I'll play D3 for awhile, than 38studios RPG and MMO at launch for example. Might try DOTA 2 (MOBA genre,) and there is always wow to fall back on and league of legends.

 

That's exactly it. With GW2 coming out in a month or two, followed by The Secret World, they really needed to come out strong and blow everyone away.

 

They did not.

 

Plus, my own personal anticipation for ArcheAge means TOR will not be a long-term game by any means. However I had hoped to get a few months out of it. As-is, I'm nearly 50, Illum is broken and dead, and PvP isn't really much fun. I could always level another toon through the slog of same-world quests and locations purely for the storyline, but imho it's not worth it.

 

Ironically I re-subbed, but only after the 12:01AM call for Founder status. I don't want to be a Founder, because I do not support this game as it stands. Only what it could've been / maybe can still be if they put extreme effort into it.

[Bodypull]

lol you will notice soon enough ...

 

i dont want this game to fail ..

 

but i will be laughing in your face if your still subscribed to this game when it fail and it will if they dont take some drastic messures soon , looking for a roup over 2 hours couse tere only 20 people left on the lfeet on primetimes in weekends

 

That and

 

this

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=202846

 

and all others like it.

 

Power to the people!!!!

[Zhiroc]

I still have to chuckle at the claim that the launch has been terrible. I guess you aren't an MMO vet. Compared to all that I have had experience with, this has been great, 1.1 patch not withstanding.

 

As for the future, who knows? The beloved SWG launched to about 450K then started heading downhill. The changes that killed it were a reaction to a game that was ALREADY FAILING.

 

As a reverse, take Eve. It launched to about 30-40K, if I recall. Over the first year or so, it declined to about 20K, and I thought it was in danger of dying. But the devs stuck to their vision and it is now at about 450-500K. Mind you, I finally decided that I personally didn't like Eve, but at least they made it into the game they wanted, and it paid off for them.

 

Worldwide sales by one group of analysts for SWTOR put it at around 2mil. If it loses 50%, it will be left with 1mil which is still quite respectable, and would provide an ample base for them to continue to continue improvements. But still, I would encourage them to make it the game THEY want, not chase the mythical forum majority. Maybe I'll like it, maybe I won't.

[Tresson]

 

Now we have a company that after repeat failures (that is trading near it's all time low,) getting smacked by analysts, investors, shareholders and customers concerning the dismal launch and quality of SWTOR.

 

Sorry can you actually show some proof of this? From what I've seen the vast majority of people, press and analysts beleived this to one of the better mmo launches.

[themistocles]

I played FFXI, SWTOR is already better.