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Forbes take on SWTOR


gunnerjoe

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No !

 

This game is successful. It has more players than... most games that cost 1/5 of it's budget !

 

BEAware will fix everything when it goes F2P. Just wait and see.

 

Am I doing the whole fanboy thing right?

 

No. Your factual statement was actually factual. Good work on the prediction and opinion though.

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Man, the fanboy denial and devotion to the Bioware/EA/SWTOR Holy Trinity is just unbelivable.

 

Fanboy or not, you must at least consider the validity of his point. If you don't, feel free to post some LOGICAL rebuttals.

 

Are you trying to incite some sort of matter-antimatter explosion?

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Maybe. Doesn't change the fact that he's right though. This game is a massive failure when you take into account the amount of money thrown at it.
I'm good with opinions either way. What I find most amusing is how some place so much credence in an independent blogger's contribution as being Forbes' professional opinion carrying Forbe's professional credentials. Some of what Mr. Tammi touched on is valid. But it sure isn't gospel. Edited by GalacticKegger
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Man, the fanboy denial and devotion to the Bioware/EA/SWTOR Holy Trinity is just unbelivable.

 

Fanboy or not, you must at least consider the validity of his point. If you don't, feel free to post some LOGICAL rebuttals.

 

I was thinking about replying sincerely, but then I realized you just pointed a finger at the holy trinity system for SWTOR's failures. That just lost all credit of you wanting a legit reply and I doubt you would care what information is presented.

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I was thinking about replying sincerely, but then I realized you just pointed a finger at the holy trinity system for SWTOR's failures. That just lost all credit of you wanting a legit reply and I doubt you would care what information is presented.

 

Nope. He named the trinity he was talking about as EA + BioWare + SWTOR.

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Article written by some disapponted guy that just can't get over fact that game is not what he wanted it to be.

 

Just because it's on this or that site doesn't make it any more valid.

 

Its valid enough.... BW lost over a million subs and is now in F2P to try and save the game mode.

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Very liberal use of the world failure. Its degrading the power of the term.

If this game had 300k subs and was bleeding cash then I would call it a failure. While the game may have lost subs it is by no means a failure.

 

Was its performance disappointing as a whole? Probably. I know I'd like to see 2-3 million subs but right now that isn't happening. Failure it is not.

 

And can we please stop with the $300 million estimates for cost? Unless you're on the finance team at EA, there is no good way to know what it really cost them.

 

And for the millionth time, THIS IS NOT A FORBES ARTICLE.

 

This is basically a blogger section of their website. They pay independent folks to fill this section up with fluff like this article.

Edited by Arkerus
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I was thinking about replying sincerely, but then I realized you just pointed a finger at the holy trinity system for SWTOR's failures. That just lost all credit of you wanting a legit reply and I doubt you would care what information is presented.

 

It wasn't the holy trininty system I was pointing fingers at. It was the high regard that people hold those three entitites (you know, that whole father, son, holy ghost thing). Didn't think I had to spell it out.

Edited by agamemnon-
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Pretty accurate article. Development started in 06, only a few years after the release of WoW. If they game had released in 06, the sub model probably would have worked, but flash forward 6 years to the present, and F2P has become too entrenched to ignore.

 

Basically poor foresight on the part of the suits.

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Pretty accurate article. Development started in 06, only a few years after the release of WoW. If they game had released in 06, the sub model probably would have worked, but flash forward 6 years to the present, and F2P has become too entrenched to ignore.

 

Basically poor foresight on the part of the suits.

 

I think it is wrong to blame F2P for SWTOR's fail. One thing that is missed is that you need a quality game. If the product is good, people will pay. The product just wasn't good in this case.

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And can we please stop with the $300 million estimates for cost? Unless you're on the finance team at EA, there is no good way to know what it really cost them.

 

There's a good way to know the floor.

 

We've been told the team was ~300 people. We were told the game was under development for 2 years before they opened the forums in October 2008. Let's say that average expense per staff member was $85k a year (that's low).

 

300 people * $85,000 * 5 years = $127,500,000

 

That's just personnel expense. Then they bought computers, paid rent on facilities sufficient to house that staff, paid voice actors and studio time for same and producers for same, paid Lucas Arts for licensing (might be a % of revenue rather than outright expense), paid for marketing (attending events can get spendy especially the ones they took a bunch of computers to for demos)...

 

Easily over $200 mil. Easily.

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I think it is wrong to blame F2P for SWTOR's fail. One thing that is missed is that you need a quality game. If the product is good, people will pay. The product just wasn't good in this case.

 

I don't know that anyone is blaming F2P for SWTOR's failure. F2P hasn't been implemented yet and the game's already a failure.

 

I think people are saying that F2P is a symptom of or reaction to the failure, not the reason for it.

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There's a good way to know the floor.

 

We've been told the team was ~300 people. We were told the game was under development for 2 years before they opened the forums in October 2008. Let's say that average expense per staff member was $85k a year (that's low).

 

300 people * $85,000 * 5 years = $127,500,000

 

That's just personnel expense. Then they bought computers, paid rent on facilities sufficient to house that staff, paid voice actors and studio time for same and producers for same, paid Lucas Arts for licensing (might be a % of revenue rather than outright expense), paid for marketing (attending events can get spendy especially the ones they took a bunch of computers to for demos)...

 

Easily over $200 mil. Easily.

 

A good number of the 300 were contractors, and that number is not concurrent for the entire development period. People usually tend to be conservative with these kind of estimates - yours is not.

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Very liberal use of the world failure. Its degrading the power of the term.

If this game had 300k subs and was bleeding cash then I would call it a failure. While the game may have lost subs it is by no means a failure.

 

Was its performance disappointing as a whole? Probably. I know I'd like to see 2-3 million subs but right now that isn't happening. Failure it is not.

 

And can we please stop with the $300 million estimates for cost? Unless you're on the finance team at EA, there is no good way to know what it really cost them.

 

defend till the end man. Everything you have been defending against has been proven already. The game is bleeding subs, thats why its going F2P. Its not the market shift pr spin you all try to believe.

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Man, the fanboy denial and devotion to the Bioware/EA/SWTOR Holy Trinity is just unbelivable.

 

Fanboy or not, you must at least consider the validity of his point. If you don't, feel free to post some LOGICAL rebuttals.

 

Many of his suppositions are in direct conflict with his previous articles on the topic. His last blog claimed the cost of producing SWTOR was over $500M now he's saying it's only 200M-300M. He is still qualifying his claims with stuff like "it's very likely" and "possibly" and "perhaps."

 

He makes patently false claims that he offers NO justification for such as "NO GAME SHOULD COST $400M TO MAKE." Why not? He never says.

 

SWTOR and WoW are too similar because... they both have levels and inventory! Hey, did you know that a game is just a wow clone if it has levels and inventory space, because no game before WoW had levels or inventory and no game should now!

 

And on to page two where he makes the bold assertion that EVERY MMO HAS FAILED EXCEPT WOW. Top of the page, EVERY SINGLE MMO has failed! But wait, even WoW has failed now... because it's losing so many subs to free to play games, and THAT my friends is why free to play is a bad idea. That's his conclusion.

 

Let's try and follow his points.

 

1. "Going free to play proves SWTOR has failed." Wait why?

2. "IP isn't enough you need a good solid game." Ok.

3. "SWTOR doesn't have a solid game." Well that's debatable.

4." Because they copied too much from WoW which is a solid game." Wait what?

5. "And anyone that tries to compete with WoW is a failure, every MMO but WoW has failed." That's not even true look at DCUO DDO EVE RIFT all are profitable and

5. "And even WoW has failed because it's losing subs to all these free to play games!" Wait your conclusion is in direct conflict with your premise, I think you need to...

FINAL TROLL: "AND ALL MMO'S SUCK NEENER NEENER LOL TROLLED"

and there we have it.

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defend till the end man. Everything you have been defending against has been proven already. The game is bleeding subs, thats why its going F2P. Its not the market shift pr spin you all try to believe.

 

Similar article on Forbes about WoW that uses the exact terminology you referenced - bleeding subs. What do they both have in common? Don't discount the market shift completely.

Edited by Typeslice
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Does Forbe have any paid staff, as in real analysts, that cover the gaming industry?

 

At all??

 

Bueller?

 

Bueller??

 

Seriously, it's an opinon piece by a "contributor" (ie: an unpaid outsider to Forbes) who writes content at Forbes to pull traffic to his site. Pretty much like all Forbes "contributors"

 

So, how about instead of sayng.... "Forbes take" we say..... "an unpaid contributor at Forbes thinks".

 

It's an opinion piece, and really not very cuting edge or original either.

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There's a good way to know the floor.

 

We've been told the team was ~300 people. We were told the game was under development for 2 years before they opened the forums in October 2008. Let's say that average expense per staff member was $85k a year (that's low).

 

300 people * $85,000 * 5 years = $127,500,000

 

That's just personnel expense. Then they bought computers, paid rent on facilities sufficient to house that staff, paid voice actors and studio time for same and producers for same, paid Lucas Arts for licensing (might be a % of revenue rather than outright expense), paid for marketing (attending events can get spendy especially the ones they took a bunch of computers to for demos)...

 

Easily over $200 mil. Easily.

 

There's so much wrong with your estimate I don't even know where to begin but the MOST OBVIOUS point is the salary you used to average everything else off of. uhhhhhh where the hell do you get $85K from? It's not the average salary of someone in the tech field, it's not the average salary of an American, it's almost like it's just some completely random number you pulled out of thin air.

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A good number of the 300 were contractors, and that number is not concurrent for the entire development period. People usually tend to be conservative with these kind of estimates - yours is not.

 

Contractors tend to be more expensive than direct hires and are paid for every hour they work (whereas direct hires may not be). Arguing that there were a lot of contractors only serves to increase my number.

 

Direct hires tend to be much more expensive than $85,000 per year, especially good, solid game developers.

 

Even if the game ramped up to 300 staff over 2 years, you're still way over $200 mil.

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