Thaltom Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 (edited) Emeda is correct and the formula used by her/him is a lot more accurate than the highly political one EA will use. 370, 300 sounds about right. It takes into account the % of players who logon. 10% of the total sub base is pretty accurate. The only solid subs EA would reveal is if they say....as of now, end of July, we have these many subs. But even that will be infected with the 6 month subbers who have canceled but still counted. "Sounds about right"?... sounding right and being right are very different things. One is opinion and the other is fact. In this thread we should make estimations at the sub numbers but touting that you have some kind of concrete proof... well that is just silly Edited July 27, 2012 by Thaltom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valkirus Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Close to accurate? Not sure that qualifies as a citable source. 10%? Where does that number come from? I've heard that figure used to describe Eve Online's logins to subscriptions ratio but it was explained that is very much an estimation and shouldn't be treated as concrete. My guess is that subs are 750,000 +/- 100,000 subs, I don't back that up with formulas because the formulas won't be accurate. Think about it. They have less than 30 servers with high populations. There are not enough servers to have much more than 400k players. No way 750k, unless there are 300k+ players who have a 6 month sub and have canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthTHC Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 To the OP's question, over 300k is a very, very safe bet. The 6 month subs purchased when the game launched are still active. Plus there are probably a lot of free trial accounts they can count as active. EA is never going to break it down to the level that we can see how many active, paying accounts there are. We are going to have to infer the game's ability to survive long-term by watching other actions EA takes relative to the game. Things like: Staffing. Are they increasing or reducing staff? Staff reductions can be normal early in an MMO's life but if they continue, it's probably a sign that the game is performing below expectation and it's a certain sign that the publisher is reducing its investment in the game. Companies invest where they believe profit can be made and reduce investment where they are losing money. Business 101. Release Cadence. The frequency with which new features and content are released can be telling. MMOs performing at or above expectation release new content and/or features on regular schedules. Publishers keep the players informed about the new stuff coming up "soon". An unpublished schedule for releases and lack of communication about new features can indicate an MMO that is performing below expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackardin Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 (edited) I'm going to put my guess in for the sub base. I'm going to guess they report a 450k "player base" which we can understand as 150k trial accounts and 300k subs. Over or under? <edited for spelling> What I want to know is why you people are so intent on disparaging, and driving players away from a game that you are interested in. You do know that is all these negative threads do right? You do know that the devs are not reading them right, not in this forum? You do know that potential players are, right? So the game is lacking for subs. You constantly post negativity about it and put it front and center 10 to 20 times a day with negative posts. Subs drop off even more. Game shuts down and you can't play anymore. What have you accomplished. You going to go to some other game board and type "I told you so?" I mean, you are complaining about subs and you are very probably the largest contributor to their decline, all of you. You do not make any sense to me at all. Edited July 27, 2012 by Blackardin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaltom Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Think about it. They have less than 30 servers with high populations. There are not enough servers to have much more than 400k players. No way 750k, unless there are 300k+ players who have a 6 month sub and have canceled. Our estimates (because that is all these numbers are ) can't include subscribers who login infrequently due to school, work, deployment, etc. etc. Even the login numbers are guessing at the low, standard, heavy, very heavy, and full thresholds... Now correct me if I am wrong but EA has never stated: The Low threshold is 3,000, the Standard is 5,500... right? If they have let me know please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 "Sounds about right"?... sounding right and being right are very different things. One is opinion and the other is fact. In this thread we should make estimations at the sub numbers but touting that you have some kind of concrete proof... well that is just silly No one has said they have concret proof. Stop saying that is what we are saying to discredit anything we say. Any number I give is not concrete but using a formula that has been show to be accurate by Bioware telling us they had 1.3 million and the formula giving a number close to 1.3 million is the best thing to use to figure out subs without being allowed acces to the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valkirus Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Our estimates (because that is all these numbers are ) can't include subscribers who login infrequently due to school, work, deployment, etc. etc. Even the login numbers are guessing at the low, standard, heavy, very heavy, and full thresholds... Now correct me if I am wrong but EA has never stated: The Low threshold is 3,000, the Standard is 5,500... right? If they have let me know please. You still are not getting it, but that's ok. Time proves all things. Just keep in mind what I said about the 6 month subs inc and the more solid sub figures released by EA will not be until the end of the year. When all the extra effects are gone. That is if they release the sub numbers at all. Rift does'nt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaltom Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No one has said they have concret proof. Stop saying that is what we are saying to discredit anything we say. Any number I give is not concrete but using a formula that has been show to be accurate by Bioware telling us they had 1.3 million and the formula giving a number close to 1.3 million is the best thing to use to figure out subs without being allowed acces to the numbers. No one said that they have concrete proof but posting numbers from formulas that are not accurate doesn't do anyone any good... unless you are trolling and trying to get a rise out of people, but that rarely happens in swtor GD... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shingara Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Im gonna say not changed very much at all. I think they have purposly done a low content patch for the same reasons they put it out at xmas before it was ready, TSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaltom Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You still are not getting it, but that's ok. Time proves all things. Just keep in mind what I said about the 6 month subs inc and the more solid sub figures released by EA will not be until the end of the year. When all the extra effects are gone. That is if they release the sub numbers at all. Rift does'nt. The Force willing, they won't release them to us. Bickering over sub numbers has got to be one of the least productive things we could do on this forum... but it is Friday so I guess if you are going to be inefficient today is the day to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackardin Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 No one said that they have concrete proof but posting numbers from formulas that are not accurate doesn't do anyone any good... unless you are trolling and trying to get a rise out of people, but that rarely happens in swtor GD... right? Nope they are trying to kill the game with the conjecture bat. Not a one of them know jack about squat, but the need to post negativity on a daily basis, drive new players away, drive those of us that actually enjoy the game crazy...is...well, overwhelming for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthTHC Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Nope they are trying to kill the game with the conjecture bat. Not a one of them know jack about squat, but the need to post negativity on a daily basis, drive new players away, drive those of us that actually enjoy the game crazy...is...well, overwhelming for some. If you enjoy the game then a) why are you on the forums instead of in the game and b) why are you on the forums where negativity reigns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valkirus Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 What I want to know is why you people are so intent on disparaging, and driving players away from a game that you are interested in. You do know that is all these negative threads do right? You do know that the devs are not reading them right, not in this forum? You do know that potential players are, right? So the game is lacking for subs. You constantly post negativity about it and put it front and center 10 to 20 times a day with negative posts. Subs drop off even more. Game shuts down and you can't play anymore. What have you accomplished. You going to go to some other game board and type "I told you so?" I mean, you are complaining about subs and you are very probably the largest contributor to their decline, all of you. You do not make any sense to me at all. Are you saying most players are like sheep and cannot think for themselves? The game has a lot of issues and it is better some know up front about some of them , than later down the road which some may leave in bitterness, which can be worse. And BioWare is not reading these forums? They should'nt base thier decisions just on the feedback on the forums, but on thier own internal tracking. But ignoring the forums? That could explain some things. You donot agree with some of the issues and that is ok, you are entitled to your own opinion. But many others think the issues they raise are legit ones and bring them up in hopes the game can be improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkerus Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 (edited) Nope they are trying to kill the game with the conjecture bat. Not a one of them know jack about squat, but the need to post negativity on a daily basis, drive new players away, drive those of us that actually enjoy the game crazy...is...well, overwhelming for some. As its been said since day 1... There is a concentrated, cohesive effort, driven largely by the Internet, to fail this game. It's a combination of several things: 1. The SWG community backlash. This game wasn't designed for them. 2. EA backlash 3. Bioware backlash for a series of poorly received games 4. Finally, a mob like cohesive force that is drive by the need for a self serving "win", whereas they can claim they knew the game would fail because the designers did not listen to them. While this phenomenon noted in several other games, it's strangely strong here. Most likely driven by the nature of gamers in general and the hype set by EA putting the game on an impossible pedestal. Edited July 27, 2012 by Arkerus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaltom Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 (edited) If you enjoy the game then a) why are you on the forums instead of in the game and b) why are you on the forums where negativity reigns? A) Some of us have jobs that have downtime. On that downtime we can look over the forums. Some of us have smartphones and can view the forums when we have some wait time (e.g. doctor's office)... but you already knew the answers to these questions. No one asks "why are you on the forums instead of in the game?" unless they already know the answer. They just want us to type this out every time you ask. B) I'm a masochist? A terrible terrible masochist. Edited July 27, 2012 by Thaltom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Our estimates (because that is all these numbers are ) can't include subscribers who login infrequently due to school, work, deployment, etc. etc. Even the login numbers are guessing at the low, standard, heavy, very heavy, and full thresholds... Now correct me if I am wrong but EA has never stated: The Low threshold is 3,000, the Standard is 5,500... right? If they have let me know please. They are educated guesses. The guesses are from collecting data to determine the thresholds for each level by taking the high of light and the low of standard and narrowing down the posible number it could be. Also determining who made errors and gave false information. The person who listed heavy as 850 would be an example of that case. The only reason you wont accept it is because you dont like the number that has came from it. Even though you have no data at all to dispute it. I know if the formula showed 1.6 million subs you would somehow accept it then since its a number that is better for the game. Again its not 100% accurate but it is close enough with a margin of error to give a general sub rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthTHC Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 As its been said since day 1... There is a concentrated, cohesive effort, driven largely by the Internet, to fail this game. It's a combination of several things: 1. The SWG community backlash. This game wasn't designed for them. 2. EA backlash 3. Bioware backlash for a series of poorly received games 4. Finally, a mob like cohesive force that is drive by the need for a self serving "win", whereas they can claim they knew the game would fail because the designers did not listen to them. While this phenomenon noted in several other games, it's strangely strong here. Most likely driven by the nature of gamers in general and the hype set by EA putting the game on an impossible pedestal. You believe far too much in conspiracy theories. In order to post on these forums, people will have had to pay for the game ($60+) and to post for longer than a month, they have to buy a monthly sub. To suggest that more than a few people would do that is just.... conspiracy theorist. And if that's how you get your kicks, there are a lot more fun and intriguing conspiracies to subscribe to than a bunch of nutjobs trying to crash an MMO. People come here to complain because they had expectations about the game, which all boil down to it being fun for them, and the game failed to meet those expectations. Some come to vent their frustration. Some come to offer the best constructive criticism they can. Some come to warn others that the game may not be what they perceive to be either. And once their subs run out, they stop posting. Because, really, how many people are going to pay $15 a month just to b***h on an Internet forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaltom Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 (edited) Because, really, how many people are going to pay $15 a month just to b***h on an Internet forum? Emeda, for one. Think she/he admitted it a few posts ago, in fact. So if one person is willing to $15/month for forum pvp... Edited July 27, 2012 by Thaltom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthTHC Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Emeda, for one. Think she/he admitted it a few posts ago, in fact. So if one person is willing to $15/month for forum pvp... Yes, I'll give you that a few will do that. Maybe even a handful. Like 10 tops. That doesn't make a conspiracy. That makes a handful of people for whom we should feel sadness at the state of their lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Nope they are trying to kill the game with the conjecture bat. Not a one of them know jack about squat, but the need to post negativity on a daily basis, drive new players away, drive those of us that actually enjoy the game crazy...is...well, overwhelming for some. So you would rather the new players only get one side of the story? From the fanboiz that say the game is growing and everything is just dandy. I am not telling anyone not to buy the game because of me or anyone else. All the posts are basically dirrected at Bioware and EA telling them that they can say all they want to but we dont believe them just because they said it. Wasnt it the may call that they posted a 400k drop in subs but just a week or two before they said the subs were growing? One thing to think about. If it wasnt for the haters then nothing would ever get fixed or added to the game. If no one complains then there is no reason to fix things or add anything because they are happy and will continue to sub right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaltom Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 The only reason you wont accept it is because you dont like the number that has came from it. Even though you have no data at all to dispute it. I don't have data to dispute it. You don't have data that can 100% disprove that there aren't 1mil subs right now. You have a formula that could be accurate within a window of possible margin of error... And OFC I would want to see a huge sub number like 1.3+mil. I like this game, even with it's (imo) minor flaws, and I want it to succeed. I submit bug reports and post suggestions in the Suggestion box; which I feel is more useful to BW than ****posting in GD along the lines of "EA/BW state F2P is coming to TOR. Your thoughts?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterKayote Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 lol, I still remember eveyone saying how Bioware was down below 500k or something then "oops" still had 1.3 million subs. Now theyre saying the same thing ... saying its lost even more subs than it lost last time in the same amount of time, even though the gameplay has improved tenfold since 1.3 and has actually been attracting new players. Oh and lol at those talking like the 6 month subs are going to be incredibly significant number... you know ... because there are sooooo many people out there who'd actually shell out approximately $90 sub + $60 box price in the same month for an unproven MMO. Even those that do are obviously much more dedicated fans then any of the 1 and 3 month subbers, thus much less likely to unsub specially now that the game is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkerus Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You believe far too much in conspiracy theories. In order to post on these forums, people will have had to pay for the game ($60+) and to post for longer than a month, they have to buy a monthly sub. To suggest that more than a few people would do that is just.... conspiracy theorist. And if that's how you get your kicks, there are a lot more fun and intriguing conspiracies to subscribe to than a bunch of nutjobs trying to crash an MMO. People come here to complain because they had expectations about the game, which all boil down to it being fun for them, and the game failed to meet those expectations. Some come to vent their frustration. Some come to offer the best constructive criticism they can. Some come to warn others that the game may not be what they perceive to be either. And once their subs run out, they stop posting. Because, really, how many people are going to pay $15 a month just to b***h on an Internet forum? It's not a conspiracy theory, it's an observation. This is what I believe is a perfect storm of a cluster $?&$ for people to complain. I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories. This is a simple observation from reading. And if you don't think a large portion of people would LOVE to see this game fail, you are delusional. Read any other site (outside these forums) and you see the same exact backlash. Bioware themselves talked about it at release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaltom Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Yes, I'll give you that a few will do that. Maybe even a handful. Like 10 tops. That doesn't make a conspiracy. That makes a handful of people for whom we should feel sadness at the state of their lives. I think 10 is shooting far too low. I was doing random HMs with two guys who were trolling GD while they waited for a group finder pop. I mean, c'mon, it's that common of an activity. Swtor forums are like STV in vanilla WoW: it's where you go to start **** for no reason to waste a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Emeda, for one. Think she/he admitted it a few posts ago, in fact. So if one person is willing to $15/month for forum pvp... No I paid the 15 bucks to try out the changes. I didnt pay just to post on the forums. Read what I said before you think. Your the target Bioware audience. You will read anything and take from it what you want too without actually understanding what is said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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