Do we have the population to ''hold'' ?

[Kalfear]

I read somewhere that there is an average of 53K people who log on daily. And the total subs is somewhere between 80-600K.

 

I gotta admit

 

That sounds about right

 

I think they still over the 500k magic mark but just barely!

But getting a read on subscriptions so hard as they add in non subscribers to the quarterly figures.

 

The last 1.3 figure, Id bet anyone a donut that real number was already under the 1 million mark in reality.

 

I think its between 500-600k right now and still shrinking weekly

 

But anyone with any common sense and actual MMORPG experience new the bleeding wouldnt stop with trasfers. Transfer make those who want to stay more pacified (like myself) but they do nothing to confince those who fed up to keep supporting the game.

 

Said it in 08

Said it in closed beta

Said it in open beta

been saying it weekly since launch.

 

This game needs its non combat social content

 

It needs pazaak, swoop racing (ala KotOR1), cantina pit fighting (ala K1 and K2), holochess (just cause its obvious) and frankly the person that said no to this stuff while in design phase should be fired immediately as they simply have no clue what they doing.

 

This game needs a working Ilum for Open World PVP. People are getting really bored of Warzones and want the other option. Heck some are already going out there with out a reason just to fight. Imagine how busy it would be if faction reputation, ego, pride was on the line like in DAoC.

 

This game needs houseing or at least space ship decorating (though personally I think the cyber designers will feel unfullfilled limited to a space ship thats already mostly filled up)

 

The swarmy self rightous pro fanatics around here can say "go build your own game if you know everything" but thats just a poor mans deflection by posters trolling or dont have a answer for the complaints/suggestions. Fact is you dont need to have 100 million dollars and a engineering degree to know this stuff. Everything I listed is standard MMORPG concepts. The items might be different (no other game will have paazzaak but even EQ way back when had social side games to play how many years ago now? This isnt cutting edge thinking regarding MMOs. Its really not.)

 

TOR lacks community and anyone that plays the game knows this to be a fact. They might not admiting it on the forums, but deep down everyone knows the social element is missing from the experience, more then anything else.

 

Yet the latest post responce from the devs I read said these things on their radar but not planned for the general future.

 

And its that statement why I know the bleeding will not stop

 

If they cant figure out and act on the obvious stuff

How on earth can we expect them to act on the not so obvious stuff

Heck the freaking memory leak from closed beta is still in full force for crying out loud.

Today I loaded off elevator and I was standing while driving my speeder (closed beta testers know exactly what Im speaking of and how laughable that graphic bug is back now)

 

Im sorry, Transfers have helped me but I desperately want to like this game as nothing else out there or upcoming even glimmers of interest to me. But im not blind and I dont hide my head in the sand on the plentifull of issues either.

 

EA has to get with it or this game will go F2P with in the next 12 months

 

And thats not screaming Gloom

Thats being overly generous to be honest.

[Scorpienne]

There was a HUGE thread on it, it's as accurate as anything players can calculate will ever get.

 

You mean this one, the one I wrote? The one I've been updating since May?

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=449144

 

In no way shape or form did I say the following:

I read somewhere that there is an average of 53K people who log on daily. And the total subs is somewhere between 80-600K.

 

So if this fella has this info, I'd love to see how he got it.

 

 

 

If you're looking for the accurate TL;DR summary from the thread I wrote, here you go. I encourage you to go to the original thread and take a look at the data for yourself and draw your own conclusions.

 

1) No one other than BW has any way at all to estimate subscription numbers. Certainly not me.

2) Destination servers have about 2000-3500 actively logged in characters during peak hours. (As censused using /who of each level band.)

3) Population is about equal between reps and imps.

4) About 30% of the population is level 50.

5) Looks like the 24-hour average logged in population on destination servers is about 30k-40k logged in characters BUT that doesn't account for 191 origin servers AND that's a 24 hr, 2 wk average based on server load which is correlated to status based on 90+ measurements to derive that correlation. So that's dead slack time and peak time averaged together. FURTHERMORE that is a number that has a COMPLETELY UNKNOWN relationship to subscriptions. (Caveat - I haven't updated it today yet.)

6) About 20% of the pop is on the fleet, but that's highly variable.

7) Pop on destination servers has been growing overall, but The Fatman has been shrinking.

 

Which is why I still want links or I can't really take actual numbers seriously. Surely we all learned in high school English classes that you have to cite your sources or no one will take you seriously?

 

 

 

Paige

[Scorpienne]

Yep dropping over 100 servers is always a great sign!

 

First, 191 servers were "origin" servers and were locked.

 

Second, we don't know that the number of servers mean anything.

 

Let's say that I would like to give you some delicious, ice-cold, Coca cola. (I'm from Atlanta, it's my default beverage. Offering someone a delicious, ice-cold Coke is often considered kind in the summer heat.) So I pick up a 2 liter bottle and start pouring for you...

Q. Would you rather have your beverage in 23 three-ounce dixie cups or in or in 4 sixteen-ounce glasses plus the last swig out of the bottle?

 

A. The 2L of Coke is 67.6 ounces, no matter how many cups you pour it into.

 

I think that the "origin" servers are dixie cups and the "destination" servers are sixteen-ounce glasses.

 

The census information certainly seems to bear that out.

 

Paige

Edited July 16, 2012 by Scorpienne

[Goretzu]

You mean this one, the one I wrote? The one I've been updating since May?

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=449144

 

In no way shape or form did I say the following:

 

 

So if this fella has this info, I'd love to see how he got it.

 

 

 

If you're looking for the accurate TL;DR summary from the thread I wrote, here you go. I encourage you to go to the original thread and take a look at the data for yourself and draw your own conclusions.

 

1) No one other than BW has any way at all to estimate subscription numbers. Certainly not me.

2) Destination servers have about 2000-3500 actively logged in characters during peak hours. (As censused using /who of each level band.)

3) Population is about equal between reps and imps.

4) About 30% of the population is level 50.

5) Looks like the 24-hour average logged in population on destination servers is about 30k-40k logged in characters BUT that doesn't account for 191 origin servers AND that's a 24 hr, 2 wk average based on server load which is correlated to status based on 90+ measurements to derive that correlation. So that's dead slack time and peak time averaged together. FURTHERMORE that is a number that has a COMPLETELY UNKNOWN relationship to subscriptions. (Caveat - I haven't updated it today yet.)

6) About 20% of the pop is on the fleet, but that's highly variable.

7) Pop on destination servers has been growing overall, but The Fatman has been shrinking.

 

Which is why I still want links or I can't really take actual numbers seriously. Surely we all learned in high school English classes that you have to cite your sources or no one will take you seriously?

 

 

 

Paige

 

 

 

Well if you dunno what's in your own thread, I dunno what to say.

[Leggomy]

Well if you dunno what's in your own thread, I dunno what to say.

 

How about quoting your sources? That or concede that scorp is probably as close as anyone can be without having access to the real numbers.

[Goretzu]

How about quoting your sources? That or concede that scorp is probably as close as anyone can be without having access to the real numbers.

 

That's exactly what I was saying when it was calculated that before the transfers, going by the calculated activity from pops and using general MMORPG rules of thumb the actively playing population was likely between 500,000 and 800,000 (of course the only solid thing we know is that is was under 1.3m).

 

After transfers, who knows, until the next subs call.

 

It's all somewhere in that thread, if the thread creator doens't know where it is, I'm not going looking for it.

 

 

 

 

 

Or are you really trying to claim that SWTOR still has 1.3m actively playing accounts?

 

 

.

Edited July 16, 2012 by Goretzu

[Blackardin]

Or are you really trying to claim that SWTOR still has 1.3m actively playing accounts?

 

I'll tell ya what I'm trying to say.

 

People should stick to playing the game rather then running it because no one in this thread has clue one about what they are bloviating about....no more then working the frialator at a Macdonalds grants someone the vision to project customer trends regarding the big mac marketing plan. ;p

[Leggomy]

That's exactly what I was saying when it was calculated that before the transfers, going by the calculated activity from pops and using general MMORPG rules of thumb the actively playing population was likely between 500,000 and 800,000 (of course the only solid thing we know is that is was under 1.3m).

 

After transfers, who knows, until the next subs call.

 

It's all somewhere in that thread, if the thread creator doens't know where it is, I'm not going looking for it.

 

 

 

 

 

Or are you really trying to claim that SWTOR still has 1.3m actively playing accounts?

 

 

.

 

No I am just claiming to believe scorp since he has actual data and can cite his sources.

[Goretzu]

I'll tell ya what I'm trying to say.

 

People should stick to playing the game rather then running it because no one in this thread has clue one about what they are bloviating about....no more then working the frialator at a Macdonalds grants someone the vision to project customer trends regarding the big mac marketing plan. ;p

 

That's a bit harsh, if someone wants to do a lot of work, working out server populations and activity why shouldn't they?

 

 

No I am just claiming to believe scorp since he has actual data and can cite his sources.

 

And what exactly is being said that you believe, that is different from what I said in my previous post.

[Scorpienne]

It's all somewhere in that thread, if the thread creator doens't know where it is, I'm not going looking for it.

 

I submit it's *not* in that thread. I welcome you to prove me wrong. :-)

 

Paige

[Goretzu]

I submit it's *not* in that thread. I welcome you to prove me wrong. :-)

 

Paige

 

And I submit it is, and welcome you to prove me wrong!

 

However what did you think the pre-transfer actively playing population was if not between 500,000-800,000?

[Sporin]

MMOs are all about improving your skills, working as a team, and having fun while doing it.

 

Love this one!

 

Tanks: Taunt, don't stand in fire, rotate, taunt, don't stand in fire...

Healers: Heal, don't stand in fire, Heal, don't stand in fire...

DPS: Shoot/poke/stab, don't stand in fire, dump threat, stab or shoot more, oh and.. don't stand in the FIRE!!! :p:rolleyes:

 

As for working as a team, that's fine as a guild, most of whom know each others reaction levels and what to do anyway... In a pug? Teamwork? Lol. Maybe Flamework, Greedwork or OMGit'syourfaulthealer-work!

 

There's probably no events cause there's no staff left, and those that are left are working on the infinite bug list (as each new patch ADDS more to the list. 1.2 working great... mini-fix the next day... Rollback & more holes than a Swiss Cheese!).

[Scorpienne]

because no one in this thread has clue one about what they are bloviating about

 

Again, I respectfully disagree. We *do* have real data about # of logins, faction balance, class balance and the like. We do have estimates of server population, with clearly defined uncertainties so you can assess how much you'd like to rely on those numbers. I've been pushing that math around with like minded folks since May, and I believe in those numbers.

 

Never ever have I once said that I have any clue about sub numbers, because I don't. I've been extremely diligent about making sure I'm only discussing real quantitative information and I leave the guessing and believing and "read somewhere"-ing and unfounded and undocumented statements to others. I squash 'em like a tick where I can because "read somewhere"-ing and guesses asserted as fact are really not responsible tools of social discourse.

 

If you really think I have not one clue about the numbers, then I absolutely welcome you to take a look at the math for yourself and to show me where I'm wrong. :-) I'm looking for the best and most appropriate analysis... I don't care who comes up with the best tool for the job. I have no pride; I'd rather have good analysis.

 

Blackardin, we've been round and round about this in a number of threads over the last few months. Can we just continue to agree to disagree? You don't like my numbers or methods. Cool. I get it. I do like assessing this mathematically, and really, no amount of your dislike or disparagment is going to stop me from attempting to be rational about numbers.

 

Maybe just put me on "ignore" so you don't have to see my posts?

 

Paige

[Devlonir]

Goretzu, I know we had our differences in the past and I greatly respect your opinion. But really, cite your sources if you claim there is proof of a lower number than Scorpienne claims. One bit of proof was given, it is your work to counter proof it.

 

If Scorp is clear in one thing, it's that activity =/= subscriptions. That it is impossible to determine subs on server activity and that it, at most, gives a trend on subs but not actual numbers. For example: i will be on a vacation for the next 2,5 weeks. My sub will not show on the 2 week average before I return. Yet, I still have it and pay it. Like me, there are tons of examples of inactive or slightly active players with running subs that are part of the general average of subscribers.

 

Also, another fun observation: People still claim the Fatman is the server to be and the biggest one there is in this thread. Current TORStatus.net update actually puts them below The Progenitor in activity.. this is a European RP server. Just another bit of proof about how we cannot take old numbers in the new situation..

[Sporin]

We're just gonna have to wait til the next earnings call until we're gonna find out, but I'd be inclined to say that this game's population isn't going to increase anytime soon. Like others have said, best estimates put it at 53k concurrent users which for a AAA MMO is terrible.

 

And they'll only count the "Free Trial" players in the same light as the rest of us... There will be 3 million or some far-fetched number to bump shares. Bums on seats, Laddie. Bums on seats!

[Goretzu]

Goretzu, I know we had our differences in the past and I greatly respect your opinion. But really, cite your sources if you claim there is proof of a lower number than Scorpienne claims. One bit of proof was given, it is your work to counter proof it.

 

If Scorp is clear in one thing, it's that activity =/= subscriptions. That it is impossible to determine subs on server activity and that it, at most, gives a trend on subs but not actual numbers. For example: i will be on a vacation for the next 2,5 weeks. My sub will not show on the 2 week average before I return. Yet, I still have it and pay it. Like me, there are tons of examples of inactive or slightly active players with running subs that are part of the general average of subscribers.

 

Also, another fun observation: People still claim the Fatman is the server to be and the biggest one there is in this thread. Current TORStatus.net update actually puts them below The Progenitor in activity.. this is a European RP server. Just another bit of proof about how we cannot take old numbers in the new situation..

 

 

I'm unclear as to what number is even being claimed.

 

Clearly it can be no more than 1.3m (at that time), and it probably isn't below 500,000 (as current server caps and activity suggests it isn't that low).

 

So there for is the contention that is was between 800,000 and 1.3m actively played accounts?

[Devlonir]

I'm unclear as to what number is even being claimed.

 

Clearly it can be no more than 1.3m (at that time), and it probably isn't below 500,000 (as current server caps and activity suggests it isn't that low).

 

So there for is the contention that is was between 800,000 and 1.3m actively played accounts?

Most educated guesses claim no number.

 

Again the key here is: Activity does not equal subscriptions. Maybe TOR got more subs since the 1.3 million but people spend less time in game (not a good sign, but it is a possibility), and maybe activity stays the same while total subs drop like a brick because people simply spend more time in game now thanks to what patch 1.3 brought.

 

Nobody knows subs, all we know is activity. So really, if you claim to know anything about subscriptions, you need to bring proof of your knowledge. Otherwise, all we can talk about with numbers backing us are activity and activity trends (and how these probably relate to subscriptions). But really, with how the landscape of servers changed since the server transfers, we cannot compare current situation to pre-transfer situation anymore and we basicly need more time to come up with good data.

[Goretzu]

Most educated guesses claim no number.

 

Again the key here is: Activity does not equal subscriptions. Maybe TOR got more subs since the 1.3 million but people spend less time in game (not a good sign, but it is a possibility), and maybe activity stays the same while total subs drop like a brick because people simply spend more time in game now thanks to what patch 1.3 brought.

 

Nobody knows subs, all we know is activity. So really, if you claim to know anything about subscriptions, you need to bring proof of your knowledge. Otherwise, all we can talk about with numbers backing us are activity and activity trends (and how these probably relate to subscriptions). But really, with how the landscape of servers changed since the server transfers, we cannot compare current situation to pre-transfer situation anymore and we basicly need more time to come up with good data.

 

 

 

Yeah, they are all a guess and, of course, can be utterly wrong. (outside of the 1.3m top end total subs, and the lower limit of actively played accounts that would likely account for bare minimum server activity - it is possible SWTOR total subs was rising, but really with server pops at that time it is unlikely to say the least)

 

 

But if looking looking at activity, peak activity and comparing it to other known MMORPGs and narrowing that number down (of actively played accounts) with guessitmates from that is pointless.......... well then so is everything mentioned in this thread (numbers-wise) except offical subs releases.

 

 

Because that's the only thing that cannot be wrong - if that indeed is the only criteria for judgement.

Edited July 16, 2012 by Goretzu

[Devlonir]

But if looking looking at activity, peak activity and comparing it to other known MMORPGs and narrowing that number down (of actively played accounts) with guessitmates from that is pointless.......... well then so is everything mentioned in this thread (numbers-wise) except offical subs releases.

 

Because that's the only thing that cannot be wrong - if that indeed is the only criteria for judgement.

 

Exactly. And this has always been my opinion.

Talking about subscription numbers is a useless matter untill a new official statement is done by EA/Bioware concerning this.

 

All we can talk about is activity, and how this relates to game enjoyment. And this has been done a lot in the past and led to the server transfers and same-server LFG system that came with it. Making the game more enjoyable because our chosen playgrounds are more active.

 

To me, any other discussion truly is pointless.

[Blavatsky]

No...

[Goretzu]

Exactly. And this has always been my opinion.

Talking about subscription numbers is a useless matter untill a new official statement is done by EA/Bioware concerning this.

 

All we can talk about is activity, and how this relates to game enjoyment. And this has been done a lot in the past and led to the server transfers and same-server LFG system that came with it. Making the game more enjoyable because our chosen playgrounds are more active.

 

To me, any other discussion truly is pointless.

 

True, in that context it is all pointless, but then your issue was/is really with those that collected the masses of data to allow for estimates of activity and log ins (pre-transfer, post-transfer it's nothing like as clear and maybe utterly impossible to guessitmate) as much as anyone contrasting it to existing MMORPG and guessitmating.

 

But if people want to do that why not?

 

 

Either way the next subs call will show the active account number which will give an indication of whether actively played accounts guessimates were remotely correct or massively wrong (and it could be either).

But yes it is all pointless, but that IS the internet for you!

[Valkirus]

 

True, in that context it is all pointless, but then your issue was/is really with those that collected the masses of data to allow for estimates of activity and log ins (pre-transfer, post-transfer it's nothing like as clear and maybe utterly impossible to guessitmate) as much as anyone contrasting it to existing MMORPG and guessitmating.

 

But if people want to do that why not?

 

 

Either way the next subs call will show the active account number which will give an indication of whether actively played accounts guessimates were remotely correct or massively wrong (and it could be either).

But yes it is all pointless, but that IS the internet for you!

 

The next sub report? I donot think it will. For one..there are several players with a 6 month sub ( inc myself ) who have unsubbed, but they will show up on the next sub report as active. I really think the best report will be the one in the fall and even more so the one due at the end of the reporting year.

[Devlonir]

True, in that context it is all pointless, but then your issue was/is really with those that collected the masses of data to allow for estimates of activity and log ins (pre-transfer, post-transfer it's nothing like as clear and maybe utterly impossible to guessitmate) as much as anyone contrasting it to existing MMORPG and guessitmating.

 

But if people want to do that why not?

 

Either way the next subs call will show the active account number which will give an indication of whether actively played accounts guessimates were remotely correct or massively wrong (and it could be either).

But yes it is all pointless, but that IS the internet for you!

 

Honestly.. I care so little about people's needs to put the guesstimates in words and then shouting "I told you so!" if their specific guesstimate was close to what reality turned out to be. This is just spamming the forums and hoping you win the lottery this time around.

 

Let me put the only proovable truthful statement concerning subscription numbers this thread has seen so far:

 

The total amount of subscriptions is between 1 (my own) and around 3 million (the maximum total number of sold units by now).

The total amount of subscriptions has either gone up, or gone down since the last quarterly statement and will continue going up or down untill the next quarterly statement. This statement will have a number that is either more, or less than the current one and this total number is the end product of many factors including (but not limited by):

- The succes of patch 1.3

- The lack of succes of patch 1.3

- The speed at which content is developed and delivered

- The quality of Customer Service

- The enjoyment people have on their current servers

- PVP being fun

- PVP being unbalanced

- The promise of <insert content or feature here>

- The lack of delivery of <insert content or feature here>

- etc..

 

But most of all, it is defined by one thing: How many people have an active, paying subscription on the time the qaurterly statement is done.

 

I wish I could say /thread now.. but i'm sure more people will come forward with their own view on things and proove that my general statement is wrong somehow.

[Shaabyy]

both factions guys, both factions

 

^ This. People are so narrow minded.

[Qarran]

The next sub report? I donot think it will. For one..there are several players with a 6 month sub ( inc myself ) who have unsubbed, but they will show up on the next sub report as active. I really think the best report will be the one in the fall and even more so the one due at the end of the reporting year.

 

Maybe, but the same issue will apply then too. The promotions, free month or and additional 3 months at a discount etc. etc. will continue. The numbers with regard to subs will still be skewed.

 

No... I think the leading indicator is activity. Wallstreet may look at subs but we will know better. And so will BW. This discussion btw is of particular interest to us, but not the stock holders. They care about the bottom line. They will take the sub numbers and run with that. Also, if EA/BW manages to increase the profitability of the game despite a small drop in subs, investors will love that too. A very different view from what we may wanting or experiencing.