Predict the sub numbers 6 months from now.

[Gokkus]

Yet they still have 10-11 million subs down from 12-13. How on any scale could that possibly be considered dying?

 

He said dying not dead. Losing 15-20% of your subs isnt a sign of great health.

[WhiskyJax]

ask yourself

 

why you even care about sub numbers?

200k or 200kk

if your server will still have like 80-150 lvl 50 online at peak hours…

 

Exactly

A merge is needed now simply because usually in any mmo only 15-20% of the population are on during peak times spread that over 216 servers, 2 factions and over 30 zones per faction that can turn a game with a 2.5 million pop into planets with an average of 35 r so players

[Madwooki]

300 to 500k with free to play this time next year. Ask yourself this, take away the Star Wars name, would you still think this is a top notch MMO with the amount of money,time and beta testing done?

[Leggomy]

He said dying not dead. Losing 15-20% of your subs isnt a sign of great health.

 

I dont think Blizzard is at all worried about it since they are still the #1 MMO ever by leaps and bounds over anyone else. Noone has even came close to their current numbers much less when they were at max subscribers. Hardly could be called dying or a failure.

[Leggomy]

300 to 500k with free to play this time next year. Ask yourself this, take away the Star Wars name, would you still think this is a top notch MMO with the amount of money,time and beta testing done?

 

If this wasnt star wars it would be closed already. I say they spent way too much on voice acting and not enough on gameplay and graphics. Who cares about cut scenes I can read. I love the voice acting dont get my wrong but seems to me they spent too much on it. Releasing a game with no hi res option in 2012 is suicide.

[Rhymez]

300 to 500k with free to play this time next year. Ask yourself this, take away the Star Wars name, would you still think this is a top notch MMO with the amount of money,time and beta testing done?

 

I predict and agree with this.

 

There is nothing unique about this game other than the odd gimmick like crafting, space combat and companions that get uninteresting quickly.

The only thing is the name. such a massive wasted opertunity

[Gokkus]

I dont think Blizzard is at all worried about it since they are still the #1 MMO ever by leaps and bounds over anyone else. Noone has even came close to their current numbers much less when they were at max subscribers. Hardly could be called dying or a failure.

 

I dont see anyone saying failure, and the fact that they are still the biggest does not say anything about the rate at which it is declining. I understand you like WoW, but if it keeps declining as it does now, I would say it is dying. Although it would still take several years to hit rock bottom.

 

They are still making ridiculous amounts of cash and they are not doing bad but that doesnt mean that the word dying cannot be applied.

Edited February 27, 2012 by Gokkus

[muzzle_flash]

Need to Merge servers right now even with a million plus players servers are ghost towns due to the number of instances on a server 30+

 

Yeh this is sadly true, though there for some reason BW seem to think that the pr from some server merges would be worse than an implosion of the subscriber base..

[chaosdefined]

He said dying not dead. Losing 15-20% of your subs isnt a sign of great health.

 

True, but if losing 2million subscribers a year is what you class as dying then WoW still has another 5 years before it'll have died completely.

[navarh]

but if it keeps declining as it does now

it will come to 0 in what? five years?

[Gokkus]

it will come to 0 in what? five years?

 

True, but if losing 2million subscribers a year is what you class as dying then WoW still has another 5 years before it'll have died completely.

 

Admitted that it is not a quick death if the declining rate doesnt pick up and it might actually be right at the time they can release Titan ^^

[chaosdefined]

WoW has their new expansion launching in a matter of months (August is currently the most popular predicted month) and that is really the biggest contendor Star Wars has.

 

WoW may have lost 2 million subscribers, myself included, this last year but you can be a good majority of those will return to try out MoP, myself included.

 

Also keeping in mind about a million of those subscribers were in China where they are further behind on expansions and on a different subscription service to us.

 

I love both games, I really want both to succeed because I enjoy both. I just really want them to improve!

[WhiskyJax]

Yeh this is sadly true, though there for some reason BW seem to think that the pr from some server merges would be worse than an implosion of the subscriber base..

 

What i find frustrating is that no one really wants to see it this way .. they seem to think that with 1.7 million players the servers should be jammed packed when this isn't true at all...

[navarh]

What i find frustrating is that no one really wants to see it this way .. they seem to think that with 1.7 million players the servers should be jammed packed when this isn't true at all...

yup

where is that 1.7million's?

86 at fleet?

32 on Ilum?

 

when you search for fp or wait wz, where is that 1.7million?

Edited February 27, 2012 by navarh

[WhiskyJax]

yup

where is that 1.7million's?

86 at fleet?

32 on Ilum?

 

when you search for fp or wait wz, where is that 1.7million?

 

The math is there yet no one wants to acknowledge it.

With 1700 000 there might be only 30 players in each zone if evenly spread out ...which obviously there are not.

[William_F_Guile]

Thanks for all the input so far.

[Ortonic]

In six months time, I believe that TOR will hold strong at 800k - 1.2 million subscriptions, not bad for a relatively new MMO. You honestly cannot go by WoW's numbers and say "oh man, it's not at 10 million so it's a big fail." What major MMO out there (not counting the kid casual ones) have anything above 2-3 million right now?? None that I can recall.

 

I believe Guild Wars 2 will take more subscriptions away than Mists of Pandaria, but you'll have those who will try GW2, not like it, and come back. You will also have those, like myself, who will play both.

 

Concerning lack of exciting content, what are you comparing it to?? WoW boss fights have been dps races since Wrath, and I haven't really heard a peep about any other end-game bosses from other MMO's that have just wowed the community. TOR end-game focuses more on survivability and movement, something that should be required of end-game content. Strong dps doesn't hurt either of course, but you really don't have time to stand around much, especially if your melee dps, which I'm pretty sure the majority of the game is.

 

Overall I believe the subscription numbers will be fine for some time. BioWare will continue to release content to keep it fresh, and over time people will give this game a shot that might have not been interested before. There's room to grow.

[Dego_Locc]

300 to 500k with free to play this time next year. Ask yourself this, take away the Star Wars name, would you still think this is a top notch MMO with the amount of money,time and beta testing done?

NAILHEAD. I mean it is what it is, you hit in right on.

Edited February 27, 2012 by Dego_Locc

[Coiffio]

Care to explain why you feel that way? i want to know the reason for the numbers you guys picked. I see a lot of hate on here and lot of love at the same time. I am curious to know the reason for both sides. Actual legit reasons.

 

They're just being dramatic. 200-300k is just silly. However I don't really see much growth simply based on current server trends. Most mmos have a surge of subscriptions at launch, then things kinda teeter off after the first few months. Mostly it's people who have tried it and didn't care for it, they usually leave within the first couple. As time goes on I think you'll see the game's true numbers, those in it for the foreseeable future. Game might settle into a little over a million subs as time passes, depending on how fresh they can keep the content. This number is just a guess really when you consider the saturated mmo market, then you have to anticipate other titles coming along that might grab people's attention, GW2 or even the secret world.

 

 

Edited to add, even bioware's own mass effect game might cause a population decrease when it hits in a week or so. Not a subscription hit necessarily, and it being a single player game and all. Just think people will take time off and be playing that. I've been enamored just with the multiplayer aspect of the demo myself, let alone the core game.

Edited February 27, 2012 by Coiffio

[Mizab]

I would say around 800k-1 million. I think this will last for a while since they are many people who are going to keep playing the game no matter what changes and a lot of people who are sticking around because they believe the game is going to keep getting better.

[zrinking]

2.5 million

 

 

The haters are gonna be shocked when the new numbers come out.

[islander]

I'll say 750k to 1 million.

 

Guild Wars is just next on the hype train. I'm sure it'll fall flat on its face like every other overhyped MMORPG initially.

 

I think a lot depends on how Bioware deals with all the extra servers now. If there were a magically way to consolidate many of them...have maybe 33% less servers I think the game would be healthier.

 

Higher average populations = good for everyone (even if it meant being forced to move communities).

 

I know I for one and finding it tougher to log into Kinrath Spider (hits standard during prime time, thats it). If not for the massive guild presence we still have, I'd have probably ditched the place by now.

 

I think they need to get character transfers working soon....and then implement it cheaply. Thinking people will pay 20 bucks to move a character at this point is a pipe dream. Honestly EA should be doing this for a) free or b) really cheap in an attempt to maintain existing subs.

Edited February 27, 2012 by islander

[Kaskava]

I know its going to be one less (me) if they do not hurry up and put in some graphics from this decade. I am paying to play a game that doesnt even have hi-res textures as an option. What game from 2012 has this horrible of graphic quality? Spend less on voice acting most poeple spacebar through and more on graphics and playability.

 

Dunno who you run with, but I've group I've been a part only bothers with space barring if it's something that we've done a million times. Like Black Talon.

 

As for numbers, I'm guessing somewhere around the one million mark. The timing of their release, and coming titles like MoP, Terra, Planet Side 2, and GW2 are going to steal a few subs. The F2P ones a bit less so, but there are going to be some drops.

 

Things will probably pick up after that, as people get bored with their new game, and return to try new content that BioWare releases.

[Ozzone]

500K or around that unless Bioware fires all the PvP staff and gets people that really understand PvP. It will be mostly, if not all, PvE players left.

[Coiffio]

2.5 million

 

 

The haters are gonna be shocked when the new numbers come out.

 

Being a hater is just as bad as having blinders on. I'm 100 percent positive this game does not have the same number of active subscriptions it did when it came out in december. It's not a knock on the game, it's just the way it is. It's rare for any mmo to see a sharp upswing in subscriptions post launch. it's one of those things where you either like it and stick with it, or you hate it and quit. Games like wow and some of it's predecessors are exceptional examples to the contrary. Don't get me wrong, I want to see this game do well. However one has to be realistic, it'll settle into a comfortable number of subscriptions, but it won't be 2.5 million, I'm willing to stake my life savings on that.