xMrBill Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The champion bags have been very odd for me over the past couple of weeks. Everything was going good until the servers went down about 10 days ago. since then every single bag that contains a champion item has been a relic. now, assuming the relic has twice the chance of a normal item, this would mean a 1/7 chance per bag that contains a champion token to have a relic token. I have gotten 5 relics in a row. now, leave asside the fact that PVP relics are terrible. The probability of getting 5 in a row would be (1/7)^5. That is a 0.004% chance. Am I really this unlucky? I ticketed to ask the devs to look into the drop rate. After the second one I reloaded my client to pray I could get something else... no luck. W3-p0 messaged me in game and asked me to post it in the forums so the developers would see it. well.. here it is. I just want to make sure my character has not gotten into some buggy loop where I get nothing but terrible relics for the rest of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMrBill Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 off the front page in a minute. Why would customer service chat with me in game and tell me to post my concernes in a forum where threads disappear in a minute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Eyesight Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The probability of two independent events occurring at the same time is simply the first event multiplied by the second event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleinone Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 off the front page in a minute. Why would customer service chat with me in game and tell me to post my concernes in a forum where threads disappear in a minute? So you will go away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMrBill Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 yes. 1/7 times 1/7 but it was 5 times in a row. so that would be 1/7 raised to the fifth power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMrBill Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Oh, I see. BW wants me to post it in the forums so I can either be ignored or have a bunch of idiots tell me to go forth and multiply. grand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurisnoctis Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 (edited) The probability of two independent events occurring at the same time is simply the first event multiplied by the second event. The probability of the 2nd bag having a relic would be 1/7 regardless of how many he got. Getting 5 in a row is in fact: (1/7)^5. Opening his 6th bag and getting a relic has a 1/7 chance. Getting his 6th in a row is a [(1/7)^5]/1 chance. Wheeeee maths. Oh, I see. BW wants me to post it in the forums so I can either be ignored or have a bunch of idiots tell me to go forth and multiply. grand They'll get around to it, don't worry. Edited January 14, 2012 by Jurisnoctis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMrBill Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 ...then they locked my ticket so I cannot update it and tell them that posting anything serious in the forums is a stupid idea. How very frustrating. I think I will go do something else. BW: you may want to let your CS reps know that sending people to the forums to reach the devs is just a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurisnoctis Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 (edited) ...then they locked my ticket so I cannot update it and tell them that posting anything serious in the forums is a stupid idea. How very frustrating. I think I will go do something else. BW: you may want to let your CS reps know that sending people to the forums to reach the devs is just a bad idea. If you expect an answer within 10 minutes of posting, you are probably doing the wrong hobby. Why did your post disappear off page 1? Because of so many others like you with problems that need attention. Edited January 14, 2012 by Jurisnoctis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleinone Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Oh, I see. BW wants me to post it in the forums so I can either be ignored or have a bunch of idiots tell me to go forth and multiply. grand Although I think you may be being sarcastic, I think this may be very close to the truth. Remember, the odds of flipping a coin is always 50/50. Even if it comes up heads 7 times in a row, it still has a 50/50 shot of coming up heads the next time. With the hundreds of thousands of bags being opened, it was only a matter of time before someone hit the 1 in 7 5 times in a row. It was bound to happen sooner or later. I think you are just having bad luck, but if it turns out you are bugged or some kind of change was made to these drop rates, you have my sympathy and I hope it gets fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trevalon Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Assuming every item has an equal chance to be drawn and there is a chance of no item dropping meaning there is a 1/8th outcome to the draw.. So your looking at 1/8*1/8th = .125*.125 = .015 = 1.5% Now lets go further .125*.125*.125*.125*.125 = .0000305 or .00305% chance... Which is basically a mathematical impossibility... What does this mean? Not all items have an equal chance of dropping So you answered the question with your own question...Should it be looked into? I dunno, it depends on if Bioware wants it to be that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trevalon Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Although I think you may be being sarcastic, I think this may be very close to the truth. Remember, the odds of flipping a coin is always 50/50. Even if it comes up heads 7 times in a row, it still has a 50/50 shot of coming up heads the next time. With the hundreds of thousands of bags being opened, it was only a matter of time before someone hit the 1 in 7 5 times in a row. It was bound to happen sooner or later. I think you are just having bad luck, but if it turns out you are bugged or some kind of change was made to these drop rates, you have my sympathy and I hope it gets fixed. Except a coin only has 2 outcomes and thus - hitting 7 times in a row is not out of the realm of possibility - a Bag has up to at least 8 combinations - making getting the same item 5 times in a row almost impossible assuming all 8 items have the same probability of dropping - obviously, they dont which is whatever, maybe thats how Bioware intended it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMrBill Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 ^ That is why I posted the ticket. 3 times in a row? unlucky. 5 times? I think there may be an issue because I closed a bag with a relic in it and logged out... just praying that I could get something other than the relic. At least with other items I can give them to companions. Blizz has 3 pieces of champ gear on already. I am just hoping a dev will look into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zsaroth Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 it would be scary if the OP understood statistics or probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMrBill Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 (edited) it would be scary if the OP understood statistics or probability There are 14 slots that can be equipped on a character. 2 out of those 14 slots can be a relic I made the assumption that since 2 could be a rlic, they double the chance of a relic dropping this means that instead of 1/14 being a relic 1/7 would be a relic the chance of getting a relic 5 times in a row if the probability of a single token being a relic is 1/7 is (1/7)^5 that comes out to 0.0000585 Assuming I am not bugged, and there are millions of players opening bags, that means that there would be multiple samples of this sort of thing already. I may be one of those samples and it may be that I am one of the outlying data points. It is still FREAKING ANNOYING. I still want a dev to take a look at the code for opening bags to determine if there is something in the state map that could make it so that if a player follows the sequence: open bag->close bag without looting->open bag again->close bag without looting->logout->log in->open bag->loot relic they could get locked into some repeating sequence where every further token they recieve is destined to be the same as the one they were trying not to loot.. Edited January 14, 2012 by xMrBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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