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This can't be true, can it? - TOR Has 350k Concurrent Players; Minimal impact on WOW


DeaconX

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No it can't.

 

Look at the website. It's called furiousfanyboys LOL. That's the stupidest 'article' (it's not an article, it's not news, the person who wrote it clearly is a furious fanboy). It's uncited garbage, please delete this thread. (No offence OP but this is nonsense).

 

If it was legit, it would be on the big websites, it's not.

 

 

The story is from the industries games business magazine - if you spent as much time looking for the source instead of posting the crap above you would know it's legit....

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I know it's not WoW, the benchmark that everyone likes to measure against, but this article from Massively mentions Eve Online's population of 330,000 accounts and peak concurrent users of just over 60,000.

 

Making the huge assumption that the ratio of peak concurrent users to total accounts gives us a population of somewhere around 2 million. That ratio is of course not going to be exactly right, but it still shows that there are a good number of people subbed, and a ton of people playing at the same time.

 

You could make that comparison in a few months, not because of the game, but because it just launched, and ppl are playing it more.

 

 

Plus releasing it on the holidays is a touch of genius for the media and hype

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The story is from the industries games business magazine - if you spent as much time looking for the source instead of posting the crap above you would know it's legit....

 

Here's a couple things

 

- What I posted isn't 'crap', what I posted is the truth about that bullsh*t I just read on furiousfanboys LOL

- The only 'fact' is the statistic - 350k concurrent users.

 

I know this. Never disputed it. Every other word he's written however is garbage.

Edited by Boundd
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The number I've always used is that the number of users a game has online at peak play time represents a quarter (25%) of the total subscribers. It's a rough guess I know, but it's been pretty accurate for me in the past with other games. Anyhooo, 350k is superb.
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I only can wish that all blog posts, which I take with a grain of salt because they are mainly an opinion of the author, take the approach such as MMOData.net that actually rate their sources of data. For example, MMOData provides the following:

 

"Accuracy Rating and MMORPG Requirements

Accuracy Rating :

 

A rating – Most or all of the data points come from official or other reliable sources and are in line with other numbers and information.

 

B rating – Part of the data points come from official or other reliable sources and part of the data points come from estimates, third party sources, unclear official sources or other indirect information.

 

C rating – Some of the data points may come from official or other reliable sources, many of the data points come from estimates, third party sources, unclear official sources or other indirect information.

 

Note :

The MMORPG list and charts are based on latest available data, if no new data is made available, certain MMORPG's may be misrepresented. Furthermore many MMORPG's are not listed here because I have not enough information."

 

They also have a disclaimer as well. However, they are upfront with the reader and describes their sources, their methodology as to how they compute the numbers. The referred web site posted by the original poster did not provide any of this information. Therefore, using MMOData as a source that has not been verified by other sources by myself there is a trend for all MMO's over 1 million active subscribers downward including WoW from mid 2010 to mid 2011 (ref: http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-1.png). I myself am impressed in the format of MMOData and their description of their frame pertaining to how they obtain their numbers and how they identify what data they do use and the accuracy of the sources by a grading system. This is not perfect, but it gives the reader much more information than the original posted site. I hope to see SWTOP on the list soon as data collection process proceeds.

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I understand that maths is hard, but that's no reason to ignore it.

 

Regarding 350K concurrent peak usage:

SWTOR serves two distinct communities with vastly different time zones and peak usage periods. We can't be certain of the distribution of users between the two communities, but as BioWare has place roughly half of their 200 or so servers in each area, it's probably a safe bet that it's not too far away from a 50/50 split, regardless of what other conventional wisdom may be. (Okay, the EU servers seem to fill up sooner and are full for longer.)

The time difference between London and New York is 5 hours, not 12 hours, so clearly there will be some peak usage overlap, probably around 20%.

The total available user base is about 1 million players. The total available user base in either community is about 500K players. With overlap, that number's probably around 600K players. [Edit: Looking over the server split, it's apparently 124 v 91, so 350K users is nearly exactly half of probable realistic maximum concurrent users of around 696K.]

The 350K concurrent peak usage number means that more than half of the likely potential players for the game are logged in at peak usage. Or half. Or slightly less than half. Anything more than 30% would be astounding, and the rest of that article seems meaningless.

 

Regarding negligible impact on WoW:

There are roughly 11 million subscribers for WoW. There are roughly 1 million subscribers for SWTOR. That's starting off at less than 10%. Looking at concurrent peak usage numbers, which will never be the same as total subscriber base, the largest impact that SWTOR could ever have on WoW is way, way less than 10%. Probably 3% to 5%.

It isn't possible for SWTOR to have a significant impact on WoW based on concurrent peak usage numbers, and the rest of the article seems meaningless.

 

Regarding cited facts:

These numbers are based on guesses by people who stroke their ironic beards and guess, banking on the fact that there will never be any hard evidence to refute their assertions. Guesses are not facts, speculation doesn't equal reality, and the rest of the article seems meaningless.

 

tl;dr: Thanks for sharing a meaningless article.

Edited by Wager
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I understand that maths is hard, but that's no reason to ignore it.

 

Regarding 350K concurrent peak usage:

SWTOR serves two distinct communities with vastly different time zones and peak usage periods. We can't be certain of the distribution of users between the two communities, but as BioWare has place roughly half of their 200 or so servers in each area, it's probably a safe bet that it's not too far away from a 50/50 split, regardless of what other conventional wisdom may be. (Okay, the EU servers seem to fill up sooner and are full for longer.)

The time difference between London and New York is 5 hours, not 12 hours, so clearly there will be some peak usage overlap, probably around 20%.

The total available user base is about 1 million players. The total available user base in either community is about 500K players. With overlap, that number's probably around 600K players.

The 350K concurrent peak usage number means that more than half of the likely potential players for the game are logged in at peak usage. Or half. Or slightly less than half. Anything more than 30% would be astounding, and the rest of that article seems meaningless.

 

Regarding negligible impact on WoW:

There are roughly 11 million subscribers for WoW. There are roughly 1 million subscribers for SWTOR. That's starting off at less than 10%. Looking at concurrent peak usage numbers, which will never be the same as total subscriber base, the largest impact that SWTOR could ever have on WoW is way, way less than 10%. Probably 3% to 5%.

It isn't possible for SWTOR to have a significant impact on WoW based on concurrent peak usage numbers, and the rest of the article seems meaningless.

 

Regarding cited facts:

These numbers are based on guesses by people who stroke their ironic beards and guess, banking on the fact that there will never be any hard evidence to refute their assertions. Guesses are not facts, speculation doesn't equal reality, and the rest of the article seems meaningless.

 

tl;dr: Thanks for sharing a meaningless article.

 

dammit, stop being logical, you'll start spreading common sense and objectivity round these forums if you keep doing that.

 

 

Good post btw.

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Funny thing about TOR "dropping" sales in the UK. EVERY game higher than it on the list is a console or SP game.

 

TOR is still the top selling MMO in the UK.

 

350K concurrent players isn't too shabby to be honest.

 

this, everyone hit 50 and is now waiting for new content so they are buying console games in the mean time, they aren't going back to WoW that's for sure... but the promised features are the ones most are waiting for... like combatlog, dual spec, rated pvp etc...

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All:

 

Be careful using media sites that do not provide their data sources and any pertaining disclaimers as to the facts.

 

Calm down people, what the hell is there to argue about ?

 

 

350,000 concurrent users is a great figure, it's more than WoW at the moment and close to where Rift was at launch. The original story is at http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-01-03-early-star-wars-success-points-to-healthy-mmo-market for those who do not / can not follow sources.

 

The fact there are so many people playing over Christmas holidays, in a new game, with the free month sub is not surprising - the test comes when people level / get back to school, college, uni, work and the free month runs out. Then we see whether the game has legs or not.

 

At the moment SWTOR is following the same pattern as WaR, AoC and Rift - its whther when people finish the first month and hit level cap if they decide the game is worth staying around for that we can start saying hit or miss.

 

Again, be very careful with media sites unless they describe their source of data, how they created their facts and how they based their analysis. Otherwise, this is that persons opinion only.

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You could make that comparison in a few months, not because of the game, but because it just launched, and ppl are playing it more.

 

 

Plus releasing it on the holidays is a touch of genius for the media and hype

 

Sure, that's going to make things different as well. Eve is also just a very different kind of game; I played for a few years and was one of the very few people I knew who didn't have multiple accounts, and many of these folks would be playing two (or more, sometimes!) accounts simultaneously; one account would have a low-SP character that would do nothing other than staying cloaked and scanning down enemies, and then the main account would come in for the kill, or would jump into system in the jump freighter or whatever. So Eve might have a higher-than-normal ratio of concurrent:total users.

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I don't care one bit about WoW, I'm done with it and never going back. It was a fun ride, but I've had enough of it. Right now I only care about TOR. Let the two coexist, there's no reason to get all hostile towards either game.

 

350K users online at the same time at peak sounds pretty good to me, but in the long run it's unimportant... What's important is how many people will continue to subscribe 6-12 months from now.

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Current SWTOR Concurrent Subscribers: Estimate 350,000 source = everywhere.

 

Current WoW Concurrent Subscribers : Exact 232,171 source = http://www.warcraftrealms.com/activity.php

 

This thread means nothing.

 

The above is only based upon the use of an add-on that many may not use. As described on their site: "This is a graphical display of data submitted from the Warcraft CensusPlus UI Mod. The collected World of Warcraft Census information gives a general view of server, faction and overall population trends. Only characters level 10 and up that have been seen in the past 30 days are included in this data."

 

The above is an estimate for a given population NOT actual population numbers. Thus there is a high degree of error in this number without having a clear understanding of the actual population as a whole and what percentage use this add-on and what do not. Therefore, this is not an authoritative source, but only one of many datapoints. This only shows a population that uses the CensusPlus UI Mod, NOT the total population.

Edited by Codexena
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I gave you a reliable resource, you are looking for a resource that confirms your opinion, not a fact.

 

Estimate of TOR concurrent players isnt a fact, it can be lot less or lot more or about tthe estmates. What comes to Warcraftrealms hat you call factual players, thats just false and not relaible source in any way.

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