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Why did the odds of getting Kingpin Chips go so low?


Starladytwo

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Playing the first couple of days in the casino for the Nightlife event thing, I was doing amazingly well compared to today. The blue chips were 1 every 5-10 rolls..or less...and now its like 1 in 20-30. What is with changing the odds in the middle of the event?
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My experience leads me to believe some toons are inherently luckier than others. I have some who can blow through stacks of chips and get nothing, others who consistently win golden certs etc. I try to just use the 'lucky' ones.
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Even if you push the button a few thousand times in a day, it's still a relatively small sample upon which to base any real conclusions. Nevertheless, if you really want to speculate about the drop rate, keep track of the exact results rather than how the results seem to you.
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I've wondered if there's some sort of AOE thing to the droprate based on player numbers. I noticed last year and this year that if I'm on the barges with one other person (or, usually, by myself) that Certs drop at a faster rate. This year I've gotten more CMCs on the barge than I have in the Casino. That being said, I only received a comp after going to the Casino. Same with mounts--I've only won one mount on the barge while winning multiples in the Casino. The reason I tested it is I wondered if there was an uptick in the chances for super rares with scores of people rolling in a small area (the Casino).
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This is all pure conjecture and a classic example of how your own mind is playing tricks on you. The odds are the same regardless of the time of day you are gambling, which character you play or whatever machine you use and in which order.

 

The one and only chance modifier is the "Feeling Lucky" boon you get from the smugglers machines (indicated by the holo Hutt face in your boon tray) that increases the drop chance for all 4 rewards (golden certificates, cartel market certificates, Vectron Wraith mount and the rodian companion) of the kingpin machines for 2 minutes until you get one of the above.

Edited by Phazonfreak
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I've never received a thing from the event .. quite literally never won enough to buy a thing or had anything drop -- since inception. So as far I can see, the drop rate has never changed. ;)
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The same thing happens during the Life Day Event. Based on my own experience, the higher the number of players in the area increases the odds of getting something for your effort. My best guess is that the algorithm is less about individual's random chance and more about whoever happens to be next in queue is the player that gets whatever item was next in queue to be handed out. :(
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Whether its legit or a figment of imagination, I have experienced what feels like "lucky" toons vs. unlucky toons with this event. I have one scoundrel (no implication that scoundrel is the factor) that seems to be "hot" at the tables compared to my other characters.

 

And...it has felt that the jackpots are more frequent when the casino is packed, and the "when it rains it pours" as I hear the big jackpots called out around the same time... probably global RNG factor.

 

-Ashur

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