Estimation of average concurrent logins (top servers)

[Scorpienne]

Anyway, I do think we'll see numbers jump up once F2P goes live. I'm also curious to see how the release of MOP affects things.

 

Yeah, me too! That's part of the reason why I'm doing this (that an unhealthy fascination with math, numbers, and patterns).

[Yogol]

28k players... you think that is more or less than 500k subs? Edited September 16, 2012 by Yogol

[Scorpienne]

28k players... you think that is more or less than 500k subs?

 

I have no data about subs. :-)

 

If you think that 5% of people are active online as a 24 hour 2 week average, then that's about 560,000 subs. If you think that 3% of people are active online as a 24 hour 2 week average, that's about 932,000 subs. If you think that 10% of people are active online as a 24 hour 2 week average, that's about 280,00 subs. Your guess is just as good as mine.

 

 

Paige

[Yogol]

I thought it was a little unusual having higher RP pops. In the other game, those are the low pop servers. Must be Bioware.

 

It just depends on how many RP servers you have, compared to PvE servers. If you only got one RP server for 10 PvE servers, than the population will be relatively higher compared to when you got 1 RP server for 25 PvE servers.

[Yogol]

Out of curiosity... how did you get the 28k active players? Is that an average? Just at peak time? Average number of players when the survey is taken ? Corrected for the fact that surveys may be taken more at peak times?

 

 

If you think that 10% of people are active online as a 24 hour 2 week average, that's about 280,000 subs.

 

Explain that to me, will you? Preferably slowly :-)

 

If 280.000 people are online 24 hours in two weeks, how does that make 28k on average?

[Andryah]

Out of curiosity... how did you get the 28k active players? Is that an average? Just at peak time? Average number of players when the survey is taken ? Corrected for the fact that surveys may be taken more at peak times?

 

 

 

 

Explain that to me, will you? Preferably slowly :-)

 

If 280.000 people are online 24 hours in two weeks, how does that make 28k on average?

 

She is trying to explain to you that "concurrent logins" =/= active subscriptions.

 

Various metrics are used in the community to speculate on how to convert a concurrent logins number into totals subscriptions. It is generally accepted in the community (from years of observations in many games) that somewhere between 5% and 10% of total subscriptions are concurrently logged in at prime time in an MMO.

 

The 28K on average number is low in terms of concurrent logins at prime play times IMO. So It is probably more like 2x that at prime time, but who knows for sure. We are in the lull before a patch so that also drives down concurrent numbers, as does new shiny "next messiah" MMOs launcing (like GW2) which may drive down concurrency in the short term, but gives no accruate indication of subscriptions.

 

Given the current lull, and nomadic interest in GW2, and soon coming Pandaland, it is very reasonable to use the average concurrent number tracked here, and a 5% concurrency value. Which leads strongly to the game still being north of 500K active subscribers, and nobody knows how many inactive current subscribers (people who maintain their sub and play multiple MMOs, like me for instance, and therefore may dilute average numbers sampled over longer intervals).

Edited September 16, 2012 by Andryah

[Yogol]

It is generally accepted in the community (from years of observations in many games) that somewhere between 5% and 10% of total subscriptions are concurrently logged in at prime time in an MMO.

 

So with 28.000 people logged in at peak time on the destination servers, the assumption is that it has between 280.000 and 560.000 total subscriptions.

 

Sounds about right, given what we already knew.

 

 

nobody knows how many inactive current subscribers (people who maintain their sub and play multiple MMOs, like me for instance, and therefore may dilute average numbers sampled over longer intervals).

 

I assume that these subscriptions are counted in the remaining 90-95%, because I would find it hard to believe that only 5-10% of the ''active current subscribers'' would log on at peak time, that's really, really low.

Edited September 16, 2012 by Yogol

[Scorpienne]

Out of curiosity... how did you get the 28k active players? Is that an average? Just at peak time? Average number of players when the survey is taken ? Corrected for the fact that surveys may be taken more at peak times?

 

Explain that to me, will you? Preferably slowly :-)

 

If 280.000 people are online 24 hours in two weeks, how does that make 28k on average?

 

Yogol, please, I beg you, read every word of the original post on page 1. I think it explains everything. Once you read it, I'll be more than happy to answer any specific questions that you have.

 

 

Paige

[Darka]

I thought I had noticed the opposite on RP servers

Seems to be a drop off specifically in RP

[Yogol]

Yogol, please, I beg you, read every word of the original post on page 1. I think it explains everything. Once you read it, I'll be more than happy to answer any specific questions that you have.

 

Sent you a specific question in private...

 

What worries me the most are the big negative numbers of the last weeks. Basically, the latest weeks, the numbers were on average...

-0.9%

-3.8%

-6.7%

-6.2%

 

In order to loose 3.8% of the players on average in two weeks, given that you lost 0.9% the previous week, you would need to loose 6.7% in the new week (the average between 0.9 and 6.7 being 3.8).

 

Doing the same for the last two weeks, the numbers become this...

Average change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.9 . . . -3.8 . . -6.7. . -6.2

Real change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.9 . . .-0.9 . . .-6.7 . . .-6,7 . . .-5,7

Amounts . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 . . . 99.1 . . 98.2 . . 91.5 . . 84.8 . . 79.5

Edited September 17, 2012 by Yogol

[lklinga]

24k concurrent users is Bad.

 

I mean If you take Eve online they have around 40000 with 300 000 k active subs.

24 000 is in in the APAC region

[Knockerz]

24k concurrent users is Bad.

 

I mean If you take Eve online they have around 40000 with 300 000 k active subs.

24 000 is in in the APAC region

 

There is always some thing to do in eve despite having a smaller player base is more dedicated and active. Plus, the eve population is stable where swtor isn't. Swtor just doesn't have the level of depth as eve. Plus, swtor future f2p switch leaves a lot of uncertainty. Unless you like to rp, there isn't much to do at moment.

 

I canceled my sub due to lack of things to do in game. The crafting sucks. Warzones are ok, more like standard in mmorpgs, but lacks any large world pvp battles. The customization sucks. You can transfer to the server of your choice and are force to play on the current server you were placed in. The end game armor sucks. The trailer armor for most classes is non-existant. I mean really you put some nice looking armor in the trailers, but you can't find it in game. Last, why on earth would you keep the zones segregated. You can't invade another dromund kaas or Coruscant. This is actually the first mmorpg that I played that you can't invade an opposing faction capital or other non capital cities, much less zones. It's almost like they don't want world pvp to happen cause they don't want large scale pvp to happen.

Edited September 17, 2012 by Knockerz

[Scorpienne]

Doing the same for the last two weeks, the numbers become this...

Average change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.9 . . . -3.8 . . -6.7. . -6.2

Real change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.9 . . .-0.9 . . .-6.7 . . .-6,7 . . .-5,7

Amounts . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 . . . 99.1 . . 98.2 . . 91.5 . . 84.8 . . 79.5

 

I'm sorry, Yogol, I don't understand your question...

 

Here's the math... LINK

 

Go to the tab called "summary stats".

 

I automated the math in the first table so you can see exactly what the math is doing (it's not just numbers copied out of excel).

 

 

Paige

[Scorpienne]

Original post updated. The bright spot is that the pop decline this week was *less* than it was last week. :-) The population *balance* between the types of servers (PvP, PvE, etc.) and the areas/languages (APAC, US EST, German, etc.) are all about steady.

 

 

Date Logins Change from prev week Change from 6/27/2012

6/27/2012 32,834

6/29/2012 34,310 4.5% 4.5%

7/2/2012 35,383 3.1% 7.8%

7/10/2012 35,160 -0.6% 7.1%

7/16/2012 35,853 2.0% 9.2%

7/23/2012 35,827 -0.1% 9.1%

7/30/2012 34,490 -3.7% 5.0%

8/5/2012 34,173 -0.9% 4.1%

8/13/2012 33,872 -0.9% 3.2%

8/21/2012 33,579 -0.9% 2.3%

8/27/2012 32,311 -3.8% -1.6%

9/4/2012 30,133 -6.7% -8.2%

9/10/2012 28,253 -6.2% -14.0%

9/17/2012 26,998 -4.4% -17.8%

 

 

Overall population is about 82% of what it was on 6/27. RP-PvE is 102% of the 6/27 number (2% growth). PvP is at 68% of the 6/27 number (22% loss). The other server types are about in line with the overall population trend.

 

Paige

[Yogol]

I'm sorry, Yogol, I don't understand your question...

 

That's cause there wasn't a question in the forum post

It's just a trabslation from your averages in the past two weeks to the number of people in the last week, that's all!

 

To add the last week....

Average change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.9 . . . -3.8 . . -6.7. . . -6.2 . . -4.4

Real change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.9 . . .-0.9 . . .-6.7 . . .-6,7. . . -5,7 . . -3.1

Percentages . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 . . 99.1 . . 98.2 . . 91.5 . . 84.8 . . 79.5 . . 76.4

 

The bleeding continues

Mainly on PvP, which is to be expected with GW2 out there.

Edited September 17, 2012 by Yogol

[Scorpienne]

Although we've had a long crazy trip here, we're back to square one.

 

The new population caps throw off all the math. I can't do this anymore until and unless I get a lot more data on what server status = how many people.

 

If you're interested in helping, please take this survey HERE a few times a week, on the imperial and republic sides of your server, and at different server loads (light, medium, heavy, very heavy, full).

 

The data, as always, will be housed HERE so that everyone can see it and do their own analysis if they choose.

 

Paige

[Skyzen]

This thread always makes me shiver. It is so intellectually dishonest.

[Jarlgon]

Although we've had a long crazy trip here, we're back to square one.

 

The new population caps throw off all the math. I can't do this anymore until and unless I get a lot more data on what server status = how many people.

 

If you're interested in helping, please take this survey HERE a few times a week, on the imperial and republic sides of your server, and at different server loads (light, medium, heavy, very heavy, full).

 

The data, as always, will be housed HERE so that everyone can see it and do their own analysis if they choose.

 

Paige

 

just looked at all the different APAC server numbers, and Low and behold Gav Daragon isn't doing as well as you thought

[Scorpienne]

This thread always makes me shiver. It is so intellectually dishonest.

 

I've been called a lot of horrible things in my day, but as a practicing scientist that spends *every working day* trying to determine meaning from data, that is absolutely the *worst* and most hateful thing that has been leveled at me.

 

Ever.

 

I take it as one of the core principles of my very self that I am completely intellectually honest.

 

I have, as a good scientist should, done the following:

 

1) Made my data public for alternative reanalysis for anyone who chooses to do so.

2) Explained my methods in detail, including their limitations.

3) Incorporated useful suggestions to improve the analysis.

 

If you can do better, then I enthusiastically invite you to do so.

 

If you can only accuse me of intellectual dishonesty, then you are what you are.

 

Paige

[Durasturan]

I've been called a lot of horrible things in my day, but as a practicing scientist that spends *every working day* trying to determine meaning from data, that is absolutely the *worst* and most hateful thing that has been leveled at me.

 

Ever.

 

I take it as one of the core principles of my very self that I am completely intellectually honest.

 

I have, as a good scientist should, done the following:

 

1) Made my data public for alternative reanalysis for anyone who chooses to do so.

2) Explained my methods in detail, including their limitations.

3) Incorporated useful suggestions to improve the analysis.

 

If you can do better, then I enthusiastically invite you to do so.

 

If you can only accuse me of intellectual dishonesty, then you are what you are.

 

Paige

 

Please don't take that person's comment to heart. A lot of us out here really do appreciate the depth of analysis and time it takes to put this kind of set together. Some people are just angry little children who don't know what they're talking about and lash out.

 

I don't think anyone that actually understands what the term "intellectual dishonesty" really implies could level it at the work you've done evaluating server loads and population demographics.

[Karquile]

Although we've had a long crazy trip here, we're back to square one.

The new population caps throw off all the math. I can't do this anymore until and unless I get a lot more data on what server status = how many people.

 

I know this part is a copy and paste from your OP, but this time, I haven't seen any evidence that the Light/Standard/Heavy/etc metric has changed. Not yet anyway. They may have released server tech that ALLOWS for a lot more players, but they certainly don't HAVE a lot more players. They had about 15% more players on the destinations when the origins closed, now those are bleeding off. I don't know about you, but I'm seeing 20-25k concurrents in North America prime time, and 7-10k in the off hours. That's consistent with the previous metric.

 

It could be that if they actually get a player explosion with F2P, they'll readjust the metric then. From what I can see at this point, they could double their playerbase and still fit into the old server tech, but who knows.

[Hudlar]

Please don't take that person's comment to heart.

 

I don't normally post on these forums, but I'm de-lurking to second Durasturan's comment. I really appreciate all the work you've put into estimating concurrent logins, not to mention your history of helpful and civil posts in this and other threads.

[SpazCats]

I don't normally post on these forums, but I'm de-lurking to second Durasturan's comment. I really appreciate all the work you've put into estimating concurrent logins, not to mention your history of helpful and civil posts in this and other threads.

 

I agree with this. Don't take that one person's comments to heart. I also appreciate the work you have done.

[Jarlgon]

I haven't seen any evidence that the Light/Standard/Heavy/etc metric has changed. Not yet anyway.

the fact that the servers have been merged in NA and EU is the fact. The new servers have a bigger pop for each of the server status levels.

Edited September 29, 2012 by Jarlgon

[Knockerz]

I've been called a lot of horrible things in my day, but as a practicing scientist that spends *every working day* trying to determine meaning from data, that is absolutely the *worst* and most hateful thing that has been leveled at me.

 

Ever.

 

I take it as one of the core principles of my very self that I am completely intellectually honest.

 

I have, as a good scientist should, done the following:

 

1) Made my data public for alternative reanalysis for anyone who chooses to do so.

2) Explained my methods in detail, including their limitations.

3) Incorporated useful suggestions to improve the analysis.

 

If you can do better, then I enthusiastically invite you to do so.

 

If you can only accuse me of intellectual dishonesty, then you are what you are.

 

Paige

 

Your doing a good job Scorpienne. Don't listen to the nay naysayers. This is the first mmorpg I know that some one actually attempted an analytical approach with actual numbers. Good Job.