Numbers on the Shadow armor nerf in PvE

[Boarg]

You can't really reverse the net "damage taken" number back to a pre-mitigation value.

 

It was just a very rough approximation using LagunaD's numbers to go backwards. Like you said, a significant portion of the damage types taken don't work well for that model so it's not very accurate.

[ArchangelLBC]

I have to say, I'm loving a lot of the analysis in this thread. Thanks to LagunaD for the original number crunching analysis, and thanks to KeyboardNinja for the slightly different, and ultimately correct I think, viewpoint, as well as the generally positive attitude you bring to the table. Every time I stare at a nerf bat (and my main is a gunnery commando, so I'm starting to get used to this crap) it's easy to focus on the negative, and a more positive perspective that manages to be realistic at the same time and backed up by strong empirical analysis is very refreshing.

 

 

Nothing really to add. My Shadow is 46, hope to have it 50 in the next week or so, and really hoping the changes don't mean I wasted my time since the whole point was to level a tank.

 

My only question on the discussion is, by experience how much of our healing is ever over heal and thus wasted? 130 HPS is all well and good but only if it's actually 130 HP healed per second not 100 Healed and 30 of it wasted because you are at 100%, or is this mostly a nonissue on hard bosses anyway?

 

Keep up the great discussion guys.

[KeyboardNinja]

My only question on the discussion is, by experience how much of our healing is ever over heal and thus wasted? 130 HPS is all well and good but only if it's actually 130 HP healed per second not 100 Healed and 30 of it wasted because you are at 100%, or is this mostly a nonissue on hard bosses anyway?

 

On boss fights that are actually challenging, I tend to sit around 7% overheal in 1.2. With that said, it's important to note that overheal on a *self-heal* is different from a healer's overheal. If a healer has overheal, you subtract it from their overall HPS. A self-heal is more like effective mitigation. If a self-heal has overheal, it means that the *healer* healed for too much, resulting in a shadow who was topped off when the self-heal proc'd. Thus, self-heal overheal should be added to the healer's overheal, rather than subtracted from effective mitigation.

 

With that said, shadows have three different types of self-heal, and only one of them qualifies for "pure mitigation" status, at least in the strictest sense. A proc'd Telekinetic Throw is our biggest self-heal, and it's also something that we have a bit of control over. Thus, we should be able to delay our Telekinetic Throw situationally and use it when we actually need healing. However, we can't delay the Telekinetic Throw for too long, because it's also our highest DPS ability. So, it's a balancing act.

 

In general, I would say that a fairly small percentage of a shadow's overheal is attributable to bad play and should be treated just as you would a healer's overheal. However, most of a shadow's self-heal overheal is actually reflecting effective overheal on the part of the healer. Healers who are extremely familiar with kinetic shadows know not to top them up, allowing their HP to remain around 80-85% of maximum.

Edited June 12, 2012 by KeyboardNinja

[ArchangelLBC]

Perhaps but that potentially leads to even greater danger of getting one or two shotted by high damage spikes, since then you're sitting in the 19k to 20k range assuming you start off with a base of 24k HP, and honestly the biggest worry about the upcoming changes has to be our vulnerability to getting gibbed like that.

 

Nevertheless, I have to disagree that overheal shouldn't be counted against our total effective mitigation precisely because you ARE counting that 130 HPS, or whatever value you want to use, in your calculation for the unmitigated damage threshold a boss has to reach before you have less survivability than a Vanguard. In a real world situation if you can only count 120.9 HPS (that's 7% taken off of 130, though maybe you meant 123?) then the equation becomes:

 

((1-.2744) - (1-.3083))x = 120.9

 

Then x = 3,566.37 unmitigated DPS

 

Obviously this part is at least somewhat in the control of the players and requires good teamwork between Tank and Healer, but the point stands. The more you overheal, intentionally or not, the less unmitigated DPS is needed by the boss.

 

If, in my earlier example, extreme or not, your effective HPS is only 100, then the boss only needs 2949.8525 unmitigated DPS to meet the required threshold. So an effective HPS average needs to be determined, or guestimated at least, and then that number applied to your analysis.

[KeyboardNinja]

Nevertheless, I have to disagree that overheal shouldn't be counted against our total effective mitigation precisely because you ARE counting that 130 HPS, or whatever value you want to use, in your calculation for the unmitigated damage threshold a boss has to reach before you have less survivability than a Vanguard. In a real world situation if you can only count 120.9 HPS (that's 7% taken off of 130, though maybe you meant 123?) then the equation becomes:

 

((1-.2744) - (1-.3083))x = 120.9

 

Then x = 3,566.37 unmitigated DPS

 

Obviously this part is at least somewhat in the control of the players and requires good teamwork between Tank and Healer, but the point stands. The more you overheal, intentionally or not, the less unmitigated DPS is needed by the boss.

 

I tend to see lack of mitigation as not so much a strain on the tank, but a strain on the healer. The less mitigation a tank has, the more the healer has to heal. One way of looking at *healer* overheal is to see it as wasted energy. Another way to look at it would be that the mitigation/boss-damage ratio was high enough that the healer didn't need to be as diligent and could afford to be lazy. Thus, overheal is one sign of good mitigation.

 

(this also leads to an odd see-saw, where a good tank will erode a healer's ability to keep him up in *really* bad situations, and a good healer will make a tank lazy about active mitigation and positioning)

 

When a self-heal is overhealing, it means that the healer is keeping up. That, right there, is mission success. Nothing else really matters. If the healer is able to keep up, then the mitigation is sufficient. The situation we need to analyze is the following: At what point will the healer *not* be able to keep up? Wherever that point lies, it seems certain that the self-heal will no longer be overhealing, since the healer won't be able to keep the tank topped up. Thus, when we analyze mitigation, we need to consider the maximum potential of the self-heal, rather than the effective potential (subtracting practical overheal).

Edited June 12, 2012 by KeyboardNinja

[ArchangelLBC]

That still leaves the concern of leaving Shadows at 80-85% health in potential instagib situations, but I suppose that's mostly a nonconcern for the moment.

[ragamer]

I don't know were you got the 7% figure on overheal, Keyboard but... You are vastly underestimating the overheal effect. That's why no reassoning can be done taking into account any parser ATM about effective healing capabilities and the "average effect" of the nerf on Self-healing on PvE.

 

What you can do is estimating how long it will take you to recover now (and after 1.3) from certain combos on certain encounters were self healing may be fully used.

 

On a regular combat:

 

- CT proc is uncontrollable. You can guarantee that each 6 seconds you are at full HP your CT is been wasted. This varies HEAVILY with the fight, specially on the ones were you are offtank and are attacking something while not been attacked back, or fights were you spend considerable time without been able to hit anything (F&S for example).

 

- TK Throw can be delayed a bit and your cycles can be tuned to the expected spikes of damage (This, after 1.3, can be done freely as you will not require TK Throw to keep agro on you on most fights). If you are controlling this, you can meassure its effective HPS to compare to the one CT is providing on each fight... When you see that the theoretical difference between both is less than expected (because CT is overhealing systematically and TK Throw not so much) you will get an average of around 25% overheal on CT.

 

- BR shouldn't be triggering any overheal in itself.

 

 

But once you do all the above... You need then to evaluate if the healer you have is really taking advantage of a Shadow Self-healing (Specially as all recent fights come with frequent tank swaps... Unless BOTH tanks are of the same type, it will be very rare to find a healer that knows how to swap his healing approach based on the tank he has to currently heal).... Because doesn't matter how much care you put into maximizing your self heal... If a healer is toping you continuously, he is not saving any resources anyways making your self-healing irrelevant.

 

 

That's why using any kind of average reassoning (As the Devs seem to be using) is a pitfall on this tweak... You have to go to specific moments on fights and realize that the armor reduction + the delay on self healing + the weak CDs will increase the already common image the average healer has that Shadows are "fragile" & a hell to heal.

 

Regarding one shoting... It's all about DPS windows & worse cases. Obviously, after 1.3 the "worst case" is worser & the time to recover is increased. The best example you have is on EC Toth's enraged jumps were the Shadow is already the worst tank and will be even worser after 1.3. Just calculate time to recover between the 1st and the 2nd jump and check the same situation (Final HP level) with a Vanguard (And don't think on the CD a Vang can burn twice on this fight and still have it rdy for the final Enrage).

Edited June 12, 2012 by ragamer

[KeyboardNinja]

That still leaves the concern of leaving Shadows at 80-85% health in potential instagib situations, but I suppose that's mostly a nonconcern for the moment.

 

So, 80-85% is the sweet spot for 1.2. In 1.3, it's 85-90% (due to the diminished self-heal). So, that lands between 20k and 21k HP. Definitely a non-concern at present, since there aren't any bosses which hit *that* hard short of an enrage.

 

All of this analysis definitely gets called into question once we get higher tiers of content. The magic 3.8k threshold, for example, is not exceeded by current bosses in nightmare modes and hard mode EC, but they definitely come close (especially bosses like Foreman Crusher and Kephess). I think it's a safe bet that the next tier of content will hit even harder, which likely means that we will need something tied to that content tier that either buffs our armor, our self-heal, or both.

[KeyboardNinja]

I don't know were you got the 7% figure on overheal, Keyboard but... You are vastly underestimating the overheal effect. That's why no reassoning can be done taking into account any parser ATM about effective healing capabilities and the "average effect" of the nerf on Self-healing on PvE.

 

I got it from my combat logs, main tanking nightmare modes and hard modes (including EC). Tor Parse does a really good job of computing overheal. 7% is a decent average for my overheal on hard fights. Some fights see it much lower (e.g. I had to solo tank nightmare Fabricator once with a sage who was already OOM, and that fight gave me an overheal of just 1%). Easier fights show a overheal that is substantially higher. If I tank a normal mode, my overheal is likely to fall around 30-40%.

 

What you can do is estimating how long it will take you to recover now (and after 1.3) from certain combos on certain encounters were self healing may be fully used.

 

That's what I'm doing. This is why my numbers assume the full 130 HPS self-heal, rather than subtracting overheal.

But once you do all the above... You need then to evaluate if the healer you have is really taking advantage of a Shadow Self-healing (Specially as all recent fights come with frequent tank swaps... Unless BOTH tanks are of the same type, it will be very rare to find a healer that knows how to swap his healing approach based on the tank he has to currently heal).... Because doesn't matter how much care you put into maximizing your self heal... If a healer is toping you continuously, he is not saving any resources anyways making your self-healing irrelevant.

 

I've been running raids with my smuggler healer for several months. Our sage healer has been in the mix for nearly as long. Believe me, they are well aware of how the shadow's self-heal works and how to exploit it. It's easier for the smuggler than it is for the sage (because of burst healing), but they both do it. They don't bother if everyone in the raid is doing fine and the amount of damage is moderate, but when the excrement hits the fan, you better believe they're going to leverage my self-heal to the maximal extent possible.

 

Any time I analyze classes, I assume optimal play on all sides. Accounting for suboptimal play is nearly impossible to do rigorously, and just leads to hard feelings and erroneous conclusions.

 

That's why using any kind of average reassoning (As the Devs seem to be using) is a pitfall on this tweak... You have to go to specific moments on fights and realize that the armor reduction + the delay on self healing + the weak CDs will increase the already common image the average healer has that Shadows are "fragile" & a hell to heal.

 

I have heard both those terms applied to guardians, and less frequently to vanguards. I have also heard them applied to poorly played shadows. The only times I have ever heard them applied to me are during extreme multi-target tanking (e.g. Kaon Under Siege) where my Kinetic Ward falls off. (oh, and once while trying to down pre-nerf Ironfist in orange gear with daily mods) That's not ego, I'm just trying to convey how very confident I am that these nerfs are only going to smooth out an already overpowered class.

 

With that said, I would love to go into specific fights and plot out, situationally, how the various tanks will fare. I think that is a much more interesting analysis, but also vastly more time consuming. Averages can get you really, really close to the truth. Averages combined with statistical deviation (which LagunaD calculated earlier) get you even closer. Add a little basic reasoning beyond that and you have something that is almost certainly a true picture of performance.

Edited June 12, 2012 by KeyboardNinja

[Sothicus]

I agree with this post, even if I haven't run the numbers myself, they sound about right off the cuff.

 

I don't think the Devs understand damage mitigation versus avoidance and the different ways to go about it.

 

As a cloth wearer, armor is not the way we mitigate damage. We either mitigate it through shield/absorbtion or self-healing. We don't bother with avoidance (because it uses up the spots for shield/absorbtion bonuses) and (obviously restated) we don't do it through armor mitigation because we are cloth wearers.

 

We don't have access to their number crunching (thank Bioware for not giving us adequate tools for that) but we have to assume that they are seeing some imbalance. And I'm okay with them tweaking the numbers. But I think they've tweaked them too far in the opposite direction and Shadow Tanks will because unviable even in PvE.

[Naldash]

Thanks to OP and other experienced shadow tanks for crunching the numbers.

 

I am playing a shadow dps spec (infiltration/upheaval spec) and my guild has had a couple of tanks leave the game temporarily for reasons beyond their control and so I have started to gather tank gear in order to fill the void on ocassion. I played around with KC one night with just orange daily tank gear (boy was that hard to get used to after using dps rotations for so long) and found that being rooted during the tele throw played a huge role in being able to use it and that my ability to self heal really didn't help me that much when I did get to use it.

 

First question. Is there a gear threshold for the viability for ENTRY lvl shadow OPs tanking that is higher than other tanks now and if there isn't do you see one post 1.3?

 

Second question. Since I don't have any experience playing the other tanks. Do they also have to manage at least 2 powers on cooldown at all times (Force breach and slow time) 3 if you include Kinetic ward although this doesn't have to be on cooldown at all times in every situation but you will want to activate it if it is recharged and and your around 3 stacks.

[Spiili]

tl;dr

[Sothicus]

Thanks to OP and other experienced shadow tanks for crunching the numbers.

 

I am playing a shadow dps spec (infiltration/upheaval spec) and my guild has had a couple of tanks leave the game temporarily for reasons beyond their control and so I have started to gather tank gear in order to fill the void on ocassion. I played around with KC one night with just orange daily tank gear (boy was that hard to get used to after using dps rotations for so long) and found that being rooted during the tele throw played a huge role in being able to use it and that my ability to self heal really didn't help me that much when I did get to use it.

 

First question. Is there a gear threshold for the viability for ENTRY lvl shadow OPs tanking that is higher than other tanks now and if there isn't do you see one post 1.3?

 

Second question. Since I don't have any experience playing the other tanks. Do they also have to manage at least 2 powers on cooldown at all times (Force breach and slow time) 3 if you include Kinetic ward although this doesn't have to be on cooldown at all times in every situation but you will want to activate it if it is recharged and and your around 3 stacks.

 

I haven't been able to do OPs, but I have crushed some of the FPs in hard mode. You can follow the suggested gear flow just fine as a Shadow Tank (pre 1.3) from what I've been told. For FPs, you can go with Orange Gear with purple mods or even the entire rookie PvP gear set. Then over time collect your Columni/Rakata set pieces through the FP HM's, Dailies etc. With near full Columni/Rakata gear you should be able to do the story mode OPS, then with full gear from story mode OPS, you should be able to do Hard Mode.

 

This link gives a good gear progression for 1.2. I have to assume 1.3 will be similar.

 

http://dulfy.net/2012/04/13/dailies-and-pve-gearing-in-1-2/

[KeyboardNinja]

I haven't been able to do OPs, but I have crushed some of the FPs in hard mode. You can follow the suggested gear flow just fine as a Shadow Tank (pre 1.3) from what I've been told. For FPs, you can go with Orange Gear with purple mods or even the entire rookie PvP gear set. Then over time collect your Columni/Rakata set pieces through the FP HM's, Dailies etc. With near full Columni/Rakata gear you should be able to do the story mode OPS, then with full gear from story mode OPS, you should be able to do Hard Mode.

 

It's even easier than that, really. As soon as you hit 50, you can start doing story mode EV. It really is an easy-mode raid designed to introduce people to the whole concept without scaring them off. The amount of loot you will get from a single story mode EV generally far outstrips what you can get in a week of hard mode running. Once you add to that the fact that hard mode flashpoints are substantially harder than story mode EV, the tradeoffs seem obvious.

 

Run a story mode EV, get your daily mods for the other pieces and start doing hard mode flashpoints. Once you have three-ish pieces of Columi, you can start looking at story mode KP. Keep doing story mode EV and KP until you're nearly full Columi, at which point you can start looking at hard mode EV and the cycle repeats. Once you pick up three or four Rakata pieces, you can even start looking at story mode EC (which is harder than hard mode KP, but easier than nightmare mode EV). You're ready for nightmare modes when you're nearly full Rakata, and you'll be ready for hard mode EC when you're full Rakata plus a couple Black Hole pieces.

 

It's a fairly standard gear progression. I haven't really observed other tanks having a shorter gear path to viability. The main thing is that shadow tanking is very active and requires a lot of work to do well. I advise practicing a *lot* to get used to the rotation. Learning to plan your pull and position enemies appropriately is also a difficult skill to master. The only way through it is to do it! Keep playing, stretch yourself, wipe a *lot*, learn from your mistakes and improve. It's how all of us learned.

[EvilFin]

new player here

 

Firstly, stats rock. Thanks.

 

Secondly, looks like I'll have to ragequit into Balance. Which is just as well, because I'm mostly-harmless when it comes to tanking.

 

Thirdly, maybe BW should focus on new content over Nerfbating. I mean, isn't that how you build up your subscriber base and game community? Just a thought.

[Icebergy]

/signed. Apparently this game is made only for Guardians and Juggernauts. And NO i am not gonna roll one. Good Riddance

 

Its funny that us guardians feel the same way about you shadows...Your mitigation is on par or better than ours, you have self healing, and your damage is SIGNIFICANTLY higher.

[Okamakiri]

Its funny that us guardians feel the same way about you shadows...Your mitigation is on par or better than ours, you have self healing, and your damage is SIGNIFICANTLY higher.

 

MOX says otherwise.

[Kihra]

One thing that seems to be missing from this discussion is Endurance and how it affects TTL (time-to-live) calculations. Health pools really need to be factored in to any discussion about relative damage taken between tank classes.

 

A tank can take more damage but have a higher health pool to compensate. As long as healers can keep up, being more of a "mana sponge" is not a big deal and can make up for increased DTPS.

 

I currently have about 27.5k health and am sitting at around 3k more health than my Vanguard co-tank. While I can't say for sure if this health discrepancy is typical, it certainly adds up to more survivability for me, both in the increase it supplies to my health pool as well as the boosts it gives to my self-heals.

Edited June 14, 2012 by Kihra