Just my 2 cents:
I consider myself solidly casual, in that I am allergic to raid schedules and the vast majority of my ops clears came from leading/co-leading pug ops. That being said, I always took learning my class very seriously, and that was something I could do on my own time, on my own terms, and without messing up someone else's progression schedule.
Back in the day I remember clearing an 16m SM DF pug on Imp side with 0 wipes, and the group (from a wide variety of guilds that were *not* famous for raiding) was all in 162 or worse (I think 3 people out of the 16 had augments, I myself was 156 with a handful of augments. Must have been alt night). That was the second time I'd run DF across my entire legacy, although I watched Dulfy's game tape several times.
That experience, when compared to my witnessing many pugs in 168 token/180 comms gear get mercilessly wiped by Draxus, just further entrenches me in the view that it's not gear or content that wipes most groups - it's just the lack of willingness or ability to learn what it takes to clear the fight.
Granted, that opinion depends on the assumption that the SM content is not bugged and properly tuned for what 186 (which I consider this era's version of 156/162) can reasonably accomplish, and by all indications it's a bit tight. I read the per-person dps parse figures a bit further up in the thread, and indeed it seems like a new 60 sporting 186s and few augs would have issues meeting those numbers.
But it's always tight at the entry level, or at least I think that should be the case. Until I find out otherwise, I tend to believe that the current ops are doable, but most casual and pug raiders have just been spoiled by the era of having ults rain from the sky, being able to learn DF/DP with almost an entire 180 comms set ready to go.