I am, by nature, a really nice person. Therefore, I will be as respectful and polite in my answer to Dekkau here.
Being intelligent, and you obviously are, is useful in building chains of logic which can bring to an explanatory reasoning and, sometimes, a rebuttal. However, the premises must be solid and correctly understood otherwise every reasoning based on such a flaw will be flawed too. One can be clever but must also pay attention to meaning in a message.
Your argument seems to be made of 2 points :
1. there is no link between curiosity and speculation
2. speculation does not equals to fail (and is not inherently vicious)
so, here is the break down :
The curiosity is what killed the cat is a saying. It supposes that being curious can, sometimes be dangerous. It is a saying. I used this to make somewhat of a pun, or play with an English expression. The meaning of the whole maneuver being to highlight that I attributed an effect to something DIFFERENT than what comes in the popular saying.
Your attempt to render me responsible for a link between speculation and curiosity is flawed as much as if you were to say that I made the same link in the following example :
"the fire destroyed the house"
"No, it is a flood that destroyed the house"
Does fire have anything to do or relates in any way to a flood? No, except for the fact that they both can be a reason for the destruction of the house; they are both contradicting, opposed by the context, objects or causes.
"the curiosity killed the cat"
"no, it is speculation that killed the cat.
As you can see, I make no link between those two things except replacing one by the other. However, just for the sake of argumentation I would posit that your reasoning would be flawed even if I traced a link, however.
I would posit that there are at least 2 significant reasons for speculation :
1. Trying to obtain ascertain a situation in order to make a logical decision by using what facts or signs, as incomplete as they are but being all that is readily available.
2. using the same kind of facts or sings as mentioned in 1. when proofs are not available in order to satisfy.... curiosity. As a matter of fact, I will posit here, without much fear of being wrong (pardon my speculation that many a speculating act is based on curiosity.
finally, about the second part of your argument I would say that the effect of speculation in easily included as a mathematical function or variation. In fact, in this very case, the subjet of debate is almost dichotomous. As what you have is either a. population increase, b. population decrease c. population is steady (variable that is so highly improbable that it gains much to be discarded). As you said yourself unless it was a win/fail situation...
population increase = win
population decrease = fail
the answer to that question has a finite answer which BW possess. The mere fact that the debate about servers population shows such a cleavage on these forums demonstrates that the so called perceptions based on the players experience are anything but clear as there is no consensus yet. You state that this kind of speculation poses no harm and I say: I have a few friends who refuse to come play with me here because of the negative impression they get about the status of the game judging by some topics in these forums.
If the conclusions of speculation can be said to be less than equal to truth then they are.. fail.
Also it is important not to mix speculation with inference, as the latter is an generalization of a sample to an entire population provided that some strict statistical rules must be applied to the sample. Also, even then, there is an error margin which can be a huge as 5%, like in many social sciences applications, for example.
I hope you see this as a polite and respectful explanation as it is how I intended it.
Everyone else, if you read that and thought it was a waste of your time, I am sorry. It wasn't meant for you, then