Okay a look at "success"

[Shwarzchild]

I think his point was this. Some people are confabulating two issues. They see saw the "more subs than..." announcement and said "LOOK!!!! See the game is growing!!!!!" Not necessarily. They made subscriptions a requirement and as such that does not = actual population growth. I believe that is all he was saying.

 

As for me. I do have a conclusion but it is based ion experience. I am NOT, as some may think, saying SWTOR is DOOMED!!!! All I am saying is this...

 

A game's content and a game's financial model are very closely linked. You do not simply make a game and then flip a coin or follow a simple financial model trend to determine the financial model. You develop the two in concert. Now yeah, sometimes it blows up in your face and then you reevaluate the financial model to try and recover from that explosion. SWTOR did that in the 2012-2013 time frame.

 

Now, to date, Subscription only games (which KOTFE is basically) kept the subscriptions ticking with regular updates of a sizeable amount of new playable content. If we look at the current game; the phased release of new content, the subscriber rewards etc. we see that they are trying to find a hook that keeps people subbed, they are doing something new. The patches are quite small and so they are hoping that the subscription rewards will be just enough to keep those subscriptions ticking. This is a risk, a calculated one I am sure but a risk none the less which is exacerbated (again just my opinion) by an almost over saturated market but was, at least in the Nov-Jan time frame, mitigated by the movie launch.

 

I am just pessimistic as to whether it will pay off. I just think it would be safer bet, to follow an ESO type model where yes indeed you can sub and get everything for free OR you can buy chapters as DLCs for say 10 bucks a head with a discount if you are coming along late and buying in bulk kinda thing. I am more about long term sustainability. Yeah if the gamble pays off you win big, but if I can have a more certain and consistent, if albeit slightly lower ROI, I am a happier camper. Make sense?

 

Comparing me to someone being sued for essentially framing someone for murder though? Don't ya think that's a bit of a stretch ?

 

I do enjoy how you highlight the things that people will latch onto....just like Dr. Protess. You sir, are a true artist. How Protess handled the Porter case absolutely reminds me of how you are handling Kotfe. You certainly haven't framed an actual person of murder, but I do think you're using the Kotfe model as your Alstory Simon. And, no matter that there were six witnesses to say Alstory Simon wasn't involved, you are 100 percent convinced. You will write paragraph after paragraph focusing on one thing, like one witness, and say that's that! I know! My reasons for pessimisim are absolutely true! Meanwhile, there's 5 other witnesses that directly contradict your point..

 

"Ghisalo you are totally back in effect. You remind me of a man named Dr. David Protess. While your intentions are great, there seems to be a distinct possibility you've already formed your conclusion, and regardless of any new facts or old facts, or really any facts, if they don't fit your narrative they are dismissed. " - my exact quote. I'm saying your methods are very similar in scope, as Protess's methods were in scope. You've honed in on one thing, and you're going to full on press until you can find enough evidence to prove it to be true, regardless of it's manufactured. You will twist it.

 

So you confirmed that yes you have a opinion, but no matter what your pessimistic. Does it not matter that it was reported that swtor has the highest level of subs in years? That can't be dismissed so casually. It simply doesn't fit your pessimistic view, so you tend to gloss over it, and put your emphasis on things that do support your notion. And, that's fine. You can be pessimistic about this game. You can disagree with the model. But, from what we know currently, the game is doing very well. Probably it's best in years. Like Economists trying to do their projections, it's time to add that disclaimer to all of your rants on all of your posts in all of the threads you post in, that your long term projection is neither right, wrong, or accurate. You're guessing.

[Ghisallo]

And they stopped giving sub numbers out because they don't paint an actual picture of the profitability of the game, but instead get people that are barely qualified to shove French fries into a container to make a ton of incorrect posts about how the game is failing.

 

Well, lets be honest, the later is why. There isn't much doubt, based on their financial model, that the game doesn't make as much gross revenue as it did in the past. The thing is the net revenue would be unknown because they have cut back A LOT on marketing (which for a while was one of the largest expenditures.)

 

My point in mentioning it though was that you could see their active population rise and fall, almost like a Sine Wave, based on when content updates were released. The more content an update had, the more gentle the slope "downward" was. When your game is subscription based that is the goal, to have that trend as gentle as possible.

[Ghisallo]

So you confirmed that yes you have a opinion, but no matter what your pessimistic. Does it not matter that it was reported that swtor has the highest level of subs in years? That can't be dismissed so casually. It simply doesn't fit your pessimistic view, so you tend to gloss over it, and put your emphasis on things that do support your notion. And, that's fine. You can be pessimistic about this game. You can disagree with the model. But, from what we know currently, the game is doing very well. Probably it's best in years. Like Economists trying to do their projections, it's time to add that disclaimer to all of your rants on all of your posts in all of the threads you post in, that your long term projection is neither right, wrong, or accurate. You're guessing.

 

Of course it matters, but again they are comparing to a rather broad period where their were consistent quarterly drops. This is as much spin as legitimate cheering because it was for the period of the expac launch and the movie release. The thing is that for a subscription model to work the numbers have to be SUSTAINED. If you get a nice big boost when the expac launches (Think WoW Cata) but then only a few months later they fall through the floor, it really doesn't matter in terms of long term profitability.

 

I am a very analytical guy. I look at an industry and say "okay what happens when games take more to release a decent amount of new content?" Well history shows us subscription drop a lot. In the December Live Stream the boss of this game even said (in a round about way) that this was a gamble. He mentioned the known dynamic of binge watching and stated that in order to try and combat that they were using the subscription rewards program.

 

I see lots of people just saying "more subs thanm they had in years" but they miss the significance of when that occurred, the almost 20 year history of subscription MMORPG dynamics and comments from the Live stream I mentioned. If you were to put simple facts, not subjective opinion on the scale, you would have the comment regarding subscriptions at the earnings call on one side and the history of the industry, live stream comments and server population trends on the other side. That's how my brain works. How I feel about a game, and I like SWTOR a lot, or I would not have been playing it all day yesterday, doesn't matter bupkis.

[annabethchase]

Well, lets be honest, the later is why. There isn't much doubt, based on their financial model, that the game doesn't make as much gross revenue as it did in the past. The thing is the net revenue would be unknown because they have cut back A LOT on marketing (which for a while was one of the largest expenditures.)

 

Wait, compared to when? Other than the quarter when ROTHC launched, the game seems to have made more money in October to December 2015 than at any point since 1.2 or so. Highest subscriber numbers in 3 years + a very solid cash shop quarter (jump to 60 coins being the big difference). So yes, very high gross revenue.

 

And obviously cut back on expenses as well

 

= profit

[masterceil]

Depends on the day time as well, I believe. Time zones, for example.

 

I recently visited JC to check GTN prices (something wasn't listed on JM GTN and I wanted to get an idea of how much to charge for it). There were 11 people on Fleet on Jung Ma at the time. 164 on Jedi Covenant. It ain't just time zones : (

 

That '40' number, by the way, is from prime time. The 'only person' reference was indeed talking about 3-6am CST.

[peter_plankskull]

Also, no, the chapters aren't 2 months apart. The next chapter is coming 4 weeks after the previous one. Not sure how 4 weeks becomes 2 months.

 

While I wouldn't qualify the chapters coming 2 months apart, they did cut out half the content for chapter XI simply to make there schedule. I don't consider it a full chapter if they have to constantly pushback half the content in order to make the next update.

[Shwarzchild]

While I wouldn't qualify the chapters coming 2 months apart, they did cut out half the content for chapter XI simply to make there schedule. I don't consider it a full chapter if they have to constantly pushback half the content in order to make the next update.

 

The chapter release schedule is intact. They want to release a chapter a month. A chapter is not inclusive of the additional content that comes with the patches themselves. You were close for once on your logic. Had you said you wouldn't consider it a full content update then you'd have been correct.

Edited February 23, 2016 by Shwarzchild

[annabethchase]

While I wouldn't qualify the chapters coming 2 months apart, they did cut out half the content for chapter XI simply to make there schedule. I don't consider it a full chapter if they have to constantly pushback half the content in order to make the next update.

 

Well the chapter was on time, but yes 4.1 as a patch was lacking. Lightest patch in a long time. However Eternal championship for 4.2, new Warzone for 4.3 and I'm guessing the new Arena is planned for 4.4. I'm good with that plan.

[peter_plankskull]

The chapter release schedule is intact. They want to release a chapter a month. A chapter is not inclusive of the additional content that comes with the patches themselves. You were close for once on your logic. Had you said you wouldn't consider it a full content update then you'd have been correct.

 

Welp... my bad on the wording and such...

 

 

but seriously...

 

 

You were close for once on your logic.

 

Is not needed and the post below you shows you can prove a point without insults.

[Shwarzchild]

Welp... my bad on the wording and such...

 

 

but seriously...

 

 

 

 

Is not needed and the post below you shows you can prove a point without insults.

 

Please make statements that are correct. If you respect your own writing I will absolutely show you the utmost respect. regardless of if I agree or disagree with the position you are taking.

[Djiini]

Is not needed and the post below you shows you can prove a point without insults.

 

The equivalent of calling insults childish is not a comeback.

[peter_plankskull]

The equivalent of calling insults childish is not a comeback.

 

Then take it as a respectful request... we are all humans behind these numbers and letters... I'm sure we can at least have the bare minimum respect for each other and withhold the insults/bashing unless the other person has not done so.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

djini has a history of not understanding at all what torstatus indicates.

 

not worth replying to him

 

Or pretty much anything logical at all.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

They don't break down numbers into the individual games.

 

Another thread pointed this article out so I'll include it here:

 

http://massivelyop.com/2016/02/23/rumor-swtor-datamining-leads-to-megaserver-speculation/

 

And I;m trying to leave chick-fil-a for the day. Stop coming up with discussions...

 

I noted that yesterday too ( not the article but the source ) and as much as I hate saying due to all the doom n gloom threads over nothing we see ... if this does go ahead it really will be one of the nails in the coffin of this game.

[Ghisallo]

Wait, compared to when? Other than the quarter when ROTHC launched, the game seems to have made more money in October to December 2015 than at any point since 1.2 or so. Highest subscriber numbers in 3 years + a very solid cash shop quarter (jump to 60 coins being the big difference). So yes, very high gross revenue.

 

And obviously cut back on expenses as well

 

= profit

That was talking about WoW. That said please show me where they said they made more profit. Wait, I'll beat ya too it...they didn't say that. They said they increased subscriptions BUT when they spoke of increased $$$ they noted a number of games and SWTOR was NOT on the list.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Ghisallo

[MeNaCe-NZ]

So you confirmed that yes you have a opinion, but no matter what your pessimistic. Does it not matter that it was reported that swtor has the highest level of subs in years? That can't be dismissed so casually. It simply doesn't fit your pessimistic view, so you tend to gloss over it, and put your emphasis on things that do support your notion. And, that's fine. You can be pessimistic about this game. You can disagree with the model. But, from what we know currently, the game is doing very well. Probably it's best in years. Like Economists trying to do their projections, it's time to add that disclaimer to all of your rants on all of your posts in all of the threads you post in, that your long term projection is neither right, wrong, or accurate. You're guessing.

 

The problem there is why didn't the report defend SWToR to it's investors in terms of profitability or revenue then?

 

It almost came across to me as smoke and mirrors by saing "subs are their highest in 3 years" whilst also saying that digital revenue is down 10% on last year.

 

SWToR is purely digital revenue so if this game were an exception to that 10% why didn't they defend it? Why not say "SWToR is up X% to regardless of this overall drop"? No, they instead needed to pull a massively arbitrary "fact" out and use that to try justify this games continued existence. Subs were up their highest in 3 years ... was that one day? One week? How did they track over the whole quarter? What is the actual revenue of the game like?

I think with the advertising and hype they put into KoTFE we would have seen much more trumpeting of it's success than "subscribers are up to their highest point in 3 years" ...

Also all the changes and mucking around with the cartel market suggests revenue is down and they're doing whatever possible to try get this revenue back up.

 

Now of course this is all assumptions on my behalf but I've asked some interesting questions to think about there. I don't like to be doom n gloom but that is how I read that report ... it just seemed too "staged" to me and lacked what I would have expected to justify the KoTFE hype and expense. I would love for this game to succeed and continue on for many years to come but unfortunately a lot of the design choices we see lately and the direction it's heading just don't seem capable of accomplishing this for an aging game like this.

[Ghisallo]

While I wouldn't qualify the chapters coming 2 months apart, they did cut out half the content for chapter XI simply to make there schedule. I don't consider it a full chapter if they have to constantly pushback half the content in order to make the next update.

 

This is my main point. They had to cut content to meet the schedule. Now did they cut story? No... but they did push back content. Sorry but I think story fans may be so myopic when it comes to the story they miss or minimize things that are cut scenes.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Ghisallo

[MeNaCe-NZ]

Wait, compared to when? Other than the quarter when ROTHC launched, the game seems to have made more money in October to December 2015 than at any point since 1.2 or so. Highest subscriber numbers in 3 years + a very solid cash shop quarter (jump to 60 coins being the big difference). So yes, very high gross revenue.

 

And obviously cut back on expenses as well

 

= profit

Oh? Can you link me to the data that shows them making more money in that quarter for this game and their cash show sales? I never saw that data so it would do wonders to differ my opinion in my previous post.

[Andryah]

I noted that yesterday too ( not the article but the source ) and as much as I hate saying due to all the doom n gloom threads over nothing we see ... if this does go ahead it really will be one of the nails in the coffin of this game.

 

I don't see how moving to a more modern and flexible server architecture = nail in the coffin.

 

Besides.... it's not like megaservers are actually one large server. They are in fact clustered servers, where they partition across logical or virtual segments of the game for each server. EVE led the way on this a decade ago. EVE appears to be one server where all players can interact when in fact is a clustered server array and most solar systems reside in their own virtual/physical server. Same with GW2 and TSW. The thing is, highly instanced MMOs can do this more easily then the older approach in MMOs that lacked much if any instancing. The only thing global to players is certain communications.

 

If they follow the TSW approach for example.... where you may still appear to exist on a particular server, yet all servers are interconnected so that all players can play together.

 

By the way, changing naming conventions and allowing spaces (and or other characters) in a name does not mean they are going megaserver. They could just be expanding naming conventions such that they can more easily apply cross-server instancing that people have begged for since launch.

 

Personally, I would love it if they let us put spaces in our names and allowed longer character counts as well. GW2 did this perfectly IMO.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Andryah

[MeNaCe-NZ]

While I wouldn't qualify the chapters coming 2 months apart, they did cut out half the content for chapter XI simply to make there schedule. I don't consider it a full chapter if they have to constantly pushback half the content in order to make the next update.

 

Really? What evidence is there of them doing this being that the chapter isn't even out yet?

[peter_plankskull]

Really? What evidence is there of them doing this being that the chapter isn't even out yet?

 

I worded it wrong previously, but they cut out the additional content like EC and plan to shoehorn it in chapter XI.

[Ghisallo]

The problem there is why didn't the report defend SWToR to it's investors in terms of profitability or revenue then?

 

This has been my main point from 2014 Calendar year on. For 2013 they did indeed defend the profitability. However the deeper we got into 2014, long longer between content patches it basically became "we make SWTOR and have high hopes... this other game however contributed well to profits in the segment" and that was the BEST they could offer., One quarter they actually talked about a straight up loss (along with the SIMs online game).

 

It almost came across to me as smoke and mirrors by saing "subs are their highest in 3 years" whilst also saying that digital revenue is down 10% on last year.

 

Exactly.

 

Also all the changes and mucking around with the cartel market suggests revenue is down and they're doing whatever possible to try get this revenue back up.

 

again true. If the number of subscriptions did indeed mean revenue was up then there would be no need to make the type of changes they did to the CM. Those changes were clearly to enhance CM revenue. If the SUbscriptions had resulted in increased revenue, not only would they have noted that revenue had increased BUT since it would have made risking pissing off players by messing with the CM an unnecessary risk.

 

Now of course this is all assumptions on my behalf but I've asked some interesting questions to think about there. I don't like to be doom n gloom but that is how I read that report ... it just seemed too "staged" to me and lacked what I would have expected to justify the KoTFE hype and expense. I would love for this game to succeed and continue on for many years to come but unfortunately a lot of the design choices we see lately and the direction it's heading just don't seem capable of accomplishing this for an aging game like this.

 

Correct... these are theories. The thing that makes me <facepalm> is that when you come up with a theory AND have supporting evidence to justify it... you aren't simply someone who has a more cautious opinion you arer someone who has an agenda. I am pessimistic BUT I am pessimistic because of the facts I put out and the information you posted as well. My attitudes are informed by data, not the other way around. However when you do that the hopeful apparently compare you to someone being sued for framing someone for murder. I wonder when logic became such a rarity.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

I don't see how moving to a more modern and flexible server architecture = nail in the coffin.

 

Besides.... it's not like megaservers are actually one large server. They are in fact clustered servers, where they partition across logical or virtual segments of the game for each server. EVE led the way on this a decade ago. EVE appears to be one server where all players can interact when in fact is a clustered server array and most solar systems reside in their own virtual/physical server. Same with GW2 and TSW. The thing is, highly instanced MMOs can do this more easily then the older approach in MMOs that lacked much if any instancing. The only thing global to players is certain communications.

 

If they follow the TSW approach for example.... where you may still appear to exist on a particular server, yet all servers are interconnected so that all players can play together.

 

By the way, changing naming conventions and allowing spaces (and or other characters) in a name does not mean they are going megaserver. They could just be expanding naming conventions such that they can more easily apply cross-server instancing that people have begged for since launch.

 

It's an indicator of the decline of the game so perhaps not a literal nail in the coffin but more evidence that nails are being placed in the coffin.

 

For example lets go back to the "subscribers are up their highest in 3 years" - if that statement lead us to believe what everyone would like it to mean i.e. "yay the game is going wonderfully, more people are playing than ever in the last 3 years and they are making a ton of money and all is going to be good" it then seems strange to suddenly start shutting servers on the back of that news.

 

You tend to shut servers if they can no longer justify the expense of keeping them open and that usually comes as a result of revenue loss - not gain.

 

Now I know, it's PVP and this isn't a PVP game and I fully agree so how strange it is then that the next major "MMO" content update we are getting is purely PVP based with not just a new arena but a whole new mode ... that's a whole lot of development there and seems utterly misplaced in the lack of new PVE MMO content that would arguably have a much greater effect of retaining or increasing subs ( as proven by the fact people just don't like to PVP hence the PVP server closure ).

 

Now I won't totally write PVP off ... if they bring some massive changes with all this ( like no more gearing for casual PVP - just get in there and play on even stat footing regardless of your gear sort of how like moba's and most fps shooters do it and there is no contention they are the most profitable multiplayer games in the world ) then perhaps it won't be a complete waste of resources but at this stage it's just money down the drain to my eyes ( and that's even when I try look at it impartially ).

 

So I do view this possible server merge as a positive feature but I also view it as a sign of bad times that they are having to do so. If anything I've learned from BWA it is they are reactive and not proactive so they aren't doing this to try purely benefit the game but reacting to the state of the game to cut costs. If we still had decent numbers on the PVP servers this wouldn't even be an option I would wager.

[Ghisallo]

Now I know, it's PVP and this isn't a PVP game and I fully agree so how strange it is then that the next major "MMO" content update we are getting is purely PVP based with not just a new arena but a whole new mode ... that's a whole lot of development there and seems utterly misplaced in the lack of new PVE MMO content that would arguably have a much greater effect of retaining or increasing subs ( as proven by the fact people just don't like to PVP hence the PVP server closure ).

 

 

Well when you look at it I believe this is the reason. BW clearly had it's budget cut... they needed people to remain on schedule with ME:A and moved much of the PvE content team to that project. So who would make more PvE? Second, PvP is simply easier to code. It is largely just creating maps and, if a new mode, adding some objectives but you are not talking about balancing multiple mobs in a zone, making sure scripts aren't bugged, trying to make sure the various encounters do not become monotonous etc.

 

So you develop PvP and you can honestly say "we added more non-story content" and in the office you all know you did it purely for efficiency and budget constraints.

 

As for the person you were responding to I think they are making an assumption. The naming convention change could be just for an lfd queue. It could equally be like Champions online where I can log into shard #20 but my friends are on shard # 30 so I swap shards to join them and bounce into my namesake in the "open world". I suspect that is where they are going. It would be far easier to simply create a cross server lfd queue. However some of the stuff noted seems to indicate that they are going a bit further and the only justification for that is because they want to address the fact that many servers, especially the PvP servers, feel like ghost towns in the open world.

 

Now again this is not to say it will be bad for the game. At the same time one has to ask why? Sometimes good changes are made to react to bad situations. That's life.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Ghisallo

[Shwarzchild]

Correct... these are theories. The thing that makes me <facepalm> is that when you come up with a theory AND have supporting evidence to justify it... you aren't simply someone who has a more cautious opinion you arer someone who has an agenda. I am pessimistic BUT I am pessimistic because of the facts I put out and the information you posted as well. My attitudes are informed by data, not the other way around. However when you do that the hopeful apparently compare you to someone being sued for framing someone for murder. I wonder when logic became such a rarity.

 

While you are in line with being analytical in that you attempt to logically reason through things in a rational way I see your end conclusions, and your posturing, as something that ends up in an illogical realm. You look so far between the lines that the theory you started with becomes something entirely different. The thing with you is you blind yourself to other positions in the sake of defending your "theory".

 

It's true I've accused you of having an agenda...specifically the agenda of spreading a doomy profile for this game based on the notion that the financial model they've now selected won't work. It's also true that I compared you to Dr. Protess. The idea of the similarities in the drive between you and him is ultimately what I find interesting. No you aren't doing anything even remotely as serious as framing someone for murder. What you are doing however, is finding evidence to support your previously made theme without really noticing the opposite end of the spectrum which could potentially be that this game is doing quite well, and this financial model is actually a positive for this game. As Dr. Protess had a singular focus on freeing those on death row, and abolishing the death penalty by any means neccessary, you also have a singular focus to prove that this financial model is the death of swtor. You'll only take the data that points to your conclusion while dismissing anything that doesn't. You are analytical, but you also appear to me to have blinders to the forest.

 

The researcher in me has no idea which is more true in regards to this model. Like you, I'm absolutely interested in the long game for swtor. I don't particularly know if this model is good or bad. The way I see it: the research study is still in the data gathering phase. We see good signs, and we see bad signs. Overall, we don't know enough to truly say that our hypothesis was either proved or disproved. I prefer to let the time tell the story and examine from there, and I don't think it's wise or responsible to focus on an unfinished product and then call it absolute.

 

I have zero issue with discussing the future of the game with you. We've done it countless times in the past on this forum. I do have an issue with assuming facts where really you're being incredibly subjective.