Bugattiboy Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 O.K. - Crafting is screwed up. You're just noticing this now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Telanis Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 (edited) The first try was to RE a blule Vibroknife - probability 10%. I ended up quitting after 48 tries. The probability of 48 fails in a row is about .64% (a little over six tenths of one percent). [...] Are these results possible? Of course. Are they likely? No? Either my wife and I are the most unlucky people in the world, or there is something grossly wrong with REing. I choose the second option. 48 fails in a row is much less than a 0.64% chance, but with millions and millions of REs being performed I promise it's not that uncommon. If there are a million players and all do one set of 48 REs per day, that's 22 people per day with such a streak (by my numbers). Yeah some people don't craft and many don't play every day, but the number of nonstop crafters probably makes up for that. I've had a few such streaks myself. The problem is that only the few people who run into such a bad streak come here and post. The people who aren't having bad luck don't come and post; if they did, I promise you would be completely drowned out. It only seems like a lot of people are having problems because almost no one having success would bother to post. Note that 7 successful REs in a row is less likely than 48 failed ones at a 20% chance. I've had positive streaks like that also. Edited July 3, 2012 by Telanis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Telanis Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Note that I'm not making any claims about whether or not the RNG is working properly. IMO, my sample size is far too small to be statistically relevant. THIS. Thank you for knowing what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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