Laris_Rai Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Remember The Gambler's Fallacy, folks. If you do the numbers on crafting make much more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthBurton Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 I get 20%. Long streaks of not getting a hit are made up for by streaks of getting 3 schematics in 3 RE's. You can't look at a small sample size and say it's broken. Every time you RE, you have 1 chance in 5 of getting a schematic. Each one is independent. If you have any d20's laying around (c'mon, you know you do) or if you have a knack with Excel and can make a RNG, roll and track 1000 die rolls and see how many come out a 1 through 4. It should be pretty close to 20%, give or take a few percentile. I've not seen any evidence to the contrary of the 20% chance not really being 20%. Crafted seventy items yesterday and got a schematic with the last one. Crafted 80 items a week ago, no schematic. Took me another eleven the next day to get one. And i never had a streak by getting 3 schematics in 3 RE's. I even never had 2 schematics in 5 RE's. As for me, the chance is not 1 in 5, it's 1 in 15 at best, and that is simply unacceptable when it states 1 in 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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