William_F_Guile Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 As the title mentions. This is a prediction thread. In your opinion guess the sub numbers 6 months from now. Based on your experience of the game so far. And compared to the upcoming games for the MMO genre. Also feel free to leave a comment as to why you predicted this number. Thank you. As for my thought a good 500k to 800k players overall. Not bad but not so good either. Might lose some players after Guild Wars 2. Again guys i am just curious to what other think about the current state of the game. This is not a troll post. Feel free to speak your mind but no personal attacks please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takauri Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 200-300k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tkshinoda Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Guild Wars 2 = getting a console version, so no do not want As for swtor i guess around 1.5mil is a pretty healthy number of players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warkat Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 300-400k..Rated Warzones wont be here till around june just in time for the next big mmo's and by that time most PvPers will have unsubbed. Leaving whats left of the PvEr's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamus_Divinus Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 2mil subscribed. /Hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William_F_Guile Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 200-300k Care to explain why you feel that way? i want to know the reason for the numbers you guys picked. I see a lot of hate on here and lot of love at the same time. I am curious to know the reason for both sides. Actual legit reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaosdefined Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Going by the biggest complaints, if they don't hurry up and fix the major bugs in FPS drops, the lack of a decent LFG system and more interesting End Game content... Then I would predict that by the time GW2 and Mists Of Pandaria have been released, then the numbers for this will have drops significantly. Possibly even going Free To Play within a year or two. If they manage to really fix the bugs and pull out some amazing content before then though, I think the subs could rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William_F_Guile Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Going by the biggest complaints, if they don't hurry up and fix the major bugs in FPS drops, the lack of a decent LFG system and more interesting End Game content... Then I would predict that by the time GW2 and Mists Of Pandaria have been released, then the numbers for this will have drops significantly. Possibly even going Free To Play within a year or two. If they manage to really fix the bugs and pull out some amazing content before then though, I think the subs could rise. i agree. Not to mention server merges are needed to save half the servers in the game right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuscad Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 400 to 600 k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
recsa Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Sorry, i left my magic ball at cargo hold, runing low on inventory sapce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muzzle_flash Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I reckon it will hold onto about 500k or so, unfortunately that will mean closing about 60% or more of the current servers.. Guild wars 2, because of its model, won't have all that much impact on any mmo's imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leggomy Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I know its going to be one less (me) if they do not hurry up and put in some graphics from this decade. I am paying to play a game that doesnt even have hi-res textures as an option. What game from 2012 has this horrible of graphic quality? Spend less on voice acting most poeple spacebar through and more on graphics and playability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaosdefined Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I think the biggest flaw was that Bioware figured they'd be able to contend with behemoths like WoW and GW2 by just using the Star Wars name alone. I honestly wonder if they had a look at what it took to make an MMO last. Don't get me wrong, I'm enjoying levelling to an extent, though I do feel it's very repetetitive and the story suddenly becomes rather disjointed after chapter 1...but it's in the End Game content that you need to keep players. Saying that people play an MMO because it's an MMO, not a single player game with the possibility of maybe luckily finding a group at some point or getting into a decent Guild that aren't solely concentrating on HM's and Ops. So there are a lot of things needed to sort the levelling experience too if they want to gain more subsciptions. They say they want to encourage people to create alts, yet they give a linear path filled with the same missions on the same planets. That needs improved too. The way things currently are though, I can see subscription numbers dropping over the next couple of months until they bring out the next big patch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dayfax Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'll say ... 1.5MM I think they're going to continue to attract new players over the next 6 months. Easily. But, they're also going to have a big attrition problem unless basic gameplay issues are resolved. I don't think GW2 or Tera will have much impact. Neither of them has the branding/IP that Star Wars has, and both experiences look a little too niche PC gamer to me. The biggest threat to TOR is MoP, simply because I get the feeling a huge chunk of this game's current user base came from Warcraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaosdefined Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The biggest threat to TOR is MoP, simply because I get the feeling a huge chunk of this game's current user base came from Warcraft. This is very true. As I stated in a different thread, Star Wars is extremely lucky that WoW is currently experiencing a lull in content. People are bored over there and thus unsubbing and trying out other games like this whilst they wait for new content. For example, were MoP to launch next month and SW still had two months until an LFG system was implimented, a huge content patch and a drastic amount of bugs fixed, then SW would suddenly lost around 50% of its current subscriptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ariacan Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 300k-400k at most I suspect that it wont take people long to realize that this game didn't bring much new to the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gokkus Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I think it will stay around 2mil. The forums might be full of doom sayers but in game ive hardly seen any. My guild is growing and seems to be in it long term. The forum users arent average/casual players and that is the largest group. Im fairly certain that group will stick around, especially if they keep adding content. People that think the population will drop 80% because of issues that are already being looked at or are generally considered for hardcore gamers are either very bad at target audiance estimation or are haters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
themacr Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 seeing as MMO's genaraly lose roughly 50% of their subs in the 1st 6 months and right now Swtor has 2mil if i'm correct. 1Mil -1,25 Mil subs would be my bet. Why higher then avarage: Its Star Wars (some people will continue playing for a long time just because of that) I personaly find Swtor to be a better then Avarage MMO. (there are alot worse and also some better one's out there depending on your taste) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iheartnyc Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 (edited) This is very true. As I stated in a different thread, Star Wars is extremely lucky that WoW is currently experiencing a lull in content. People are bored over there and thus unsubbing and trying out other games like this whilst they wait for new content. For example, were MoP to launch next month and SW still had two months until an LFG system was implimented, a huge content patch and a drastic amount of bugs fixed, then SW would suddenly lost around 50% of its current subscriptions. Uhm WoW lost 2million + subscribers in last year alone. They've moved on and aren't going back. WoW's been dying for a while now. Edited February 27, 2012 by iheartnyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiskyJax Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I reckon it will hold onto about 500k or so, unfortunately that will mean closing about 60% or more of the current servers.. Guild wars 2, because of its model, won't have all that much impact on any mmo's imho Need to Merge servers right now even with a million plus players servers are ghost towns due to the number of instances on a server 30+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iheartnyc Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 seeing as MMO's genaraly lose roughly 50% of their subs in the 1st 6 months and right now Swtor has 2mil if i'm correct. 1Mil -1,25 Mil subs would be my bet. Why higher then avarage: Its Star Wars (some people will continue playing for a long time just because of that) I personaly find Swtor to be a better then Avarage MMO. (there are alot worse and also some better one's out there depending on your taste) 1.5-2.5 million is my bet. MMO's may generally lose 50% of their subs...but this is not a general MMO. It was the fastest growing MMO after, and the most successful launch ever. Applying "general" rules to a unique one-off game is not going to have much predictive value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leggomy Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Uhm WoW lost 2million + subscribers in last year alone. They've moved on and aren't going back. WoW's been dying for a while now. Dying? You call 10-11 million subs dying? Then SWTOR is dead at launch they may as well shut it down. They wont even hit 3 million subs if they include everyone who cancelled or didnt subscribe after buying the box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iheartnyc Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Dying? You call 10-11 million subs dying? Then SWTOR is dead at launch they may as well shut it down. They wont even hit 3 million subs if they include everyone who cancelled or didnt subscribe after buying the box. http://www.pcworld.com/article/243465/world_of_warcraft_loses_2_million_subscribers_in_a_year.html "World of Warcraft Loses 2 Million Subscribers in a Year" Haha denial much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navarh Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 (edited) ask yourself why you even care about sub numbers? 200k or 200kk if your server will still have like 80-150 lvl 50 online at peak hours… Edited February 27, 2012 by navarh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leggomy Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 http://www.pcworld.com/article/243465/world_of_warcraft_loses_2_million_subscribers_in_a_year.html "World of Warcraft Loses 2 Million Subscribers in a Year" Haha denial much? Yet they still have 10-11 million subs down from 12-13. How on any scale could that possibly be considered dying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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