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Dr_Nex

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    Statistical averages on the RNG of getting a full set of gear for a single spec.

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dr_Nex

    The mathematical proof would be (assuming loot table of 20, so you'd get some relics, earpieces and implants you don't want):

     

    1st piece: 1 crate for average, 3+ crates for unlucky 5% (remember, some relics/earpieces/implants that aren't optimal)

    2nd piece: 1 crate for average; 3+ crates for unlucky 5%

    3rd piece: 1 crate for average, 4+ crates for unlucky 5%

    4th piece: 1 crate for average, 4+ crates for unlucky 5%

    5th piece: 1 crate for average, 5+ crates for unlucky 5%

    6th piece: 2 crates for average, 5+ crates for unlucky 5%

    7th piece: 2 crates for average, 6+ crates for unlucky 5%

    8th piece: 2 crates for average, 7+ crates for unlucky 5%

    9th piece: 2 crates for average, 9+ crates for unlucky 5%

    10th piece: 3 crates for average, 11+ crates for unlucky 5%

    11th piece: 4 crates for average, 14+ crates for unlucky 5%

    12th piece: 5 crates for average, 19+ crates for unlucky 5%

    13th piece: 7 crates for average, 29+ crates for unlucky 5%

    14th piece: 14 crates for average, 59+ crates for unlucky 5%

     

    So for a totally average player, you'd have to open about 46 crates to get a full set of gear. For someone who is unlucky, you're potentially looking at well over a hundred crates. (Keep in mind that you can't simply add up the numbers in the unlucky 5% column, because that would mean you're in the unlucky 5% on every single piece -- the odds of that are astronomically small (0.05 ^ 14, basically). Basically, on each piece you have a 50% chance of doing better than average, and a 50% chance of doing worse than average, and you have to calculate each draw separately.

     

    The formula I'm using is

    1 - (1 - ((15 - set piece number) / 20) ^ number of crates for percentile.

     

    So for example, for set piece number 14, the formula is:

    1 - (1 - 1/20)^14 = 51.2%, meaning that the ~ average player needs to open 14 crates.

    1 - (1 - 1/20)^59 = 95.2%, meaning that the unluckiest 4.8% of players will need to open a minimum of 59 crates to get the last set piece they need. The numbers get astronomically higher as you get unluckier. The unlucky 1%, for example, would need to open 90 crates just for the last set piece.

     

    For the average player, I don't think 46 hours (assuming 1 crate per hour) is bad at all. But I pity those of you who are unlucky. That's the problem with RNG... As you can see, it's actually not so bad until you're trying to get your last few set pieces. Then, most of the crates you're opening will contain duplicates of what you already have. The first few pieces will come quite quickly though.

    You need to open 41+ crates to have a 95% chance of getting the set piece you need

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dr_Nex

    Isn't the set bonus 6 of 7 slots?

     

    So as soon as you get 70, you can buy crafted, so you are going for set bonuses. Once you get 5 set pieces, then 54% of the people will get one of the two remaining slots for their 6P bonus within 5 crates. I have read 1-1.5 hours per crate.

    Ok, let's assume you have 5/7 set pieces so you just need a 6th to complete the bonus. Let's assume a loot table of 20 items (relics, earpieces, implants, etc.)

     

    You would have a 2 in 20 chance of getting one of the two set pieces that you need to get the 6/7 bonus.

     

    To have a 95% chance of getting one of the two remaining set pieces that you need, you would still need to open ~29 crates. (0.9 ^ 29) = ~5%

     

    Also, keep in mind that some poor schmucks are going to be extra unlucky and it's going to take a lot more boxes. To bring it up to a 99.9% chance, you'd need to open 65 boxes. And, 0.01% of players (which is still quite a few when you're talking about tens of thousands) STILL won't get what they need. Can you imagine their rage after grinding for 65 boxes and not being able to complete their set bonus?

    You need to open 41+ crates to have a 95% chance of getting the set piece you need

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dr_Nex

    I'm slightly mollified by giving out crates based on role/discipline, but RNG is still a very annoying problem.

     

    When trying to get your last set piece, you still only have a 1/14 or a 7% chance of getting the piece you need. Even if you end up earning a crate every hour (and that's a big if since it doesn't seem set in stone and they admitted the rate of earning crates slows down as you progress), there's still a very real possibility that you could go through 10+ crates and not get the piece that you want/need.

     

    Basically, to get a 95% chance of getting the 1/14 set piece that you need to complete your set, you would need to open 41 crates.

     

    (1.00 - (1 / 14)) ^ 41 = ~5%

     

    This assumes there are only a total of 14 set pieces in the loot table. It may well be worse than that as there could be more (and probably are) than 2 relics or 2 implants, and more than a single earpiece in the loot table.

     

    If you assume there are 20 pieces in the loot table, you'd need to open FIFTY-NINE crates to have a 95% chance of getting the set piece that you need.

     

    (1 - (1 / 20)) ^ 59 = ~5%

     

    And that's not even a sure bet, it might take someone who's unlucky even more boxes. But even at the rate of one per hour (assuming that doesn't slow down), you're now potentially talking about 60 hours of grinding to get the single set piece that you need?

     

    Just give us tokens or let us pick what we want from a list FFS.

     

    _____

     

    Also, as a sidenote, I have to question the logic that this system is being implemented because things are complicated and there are too many tokens and types of currencies blah blah blah. Oh, here's a new type of token/currency called dark and light tokens!

    ???? :rak_02:

    To all you fools throwing out the played out "Can I Have Your Stuff" Line...

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    There is no reason to keep unbound cartel items we usually make credits out of them as much as we can to buy the stuff we really need or using it for money sink patches etc.. Same with mats especially since the recent 8 - 9 changes.

     

    But apparently you really hope that rich players that quit are clutterer that use their storage as garbage can like you do.

     

    However good luck with your parasite sponge account.

    well "stuff" includes credits so if you're quitting and you have lots of credits, you can send them to me. I will put them to good use :)

    Not so concerned about preferred stuff but RNG crates have got to go

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dr_Nex

    The inability of preferred players to obtain BiS gear bothers me, sure, but I don't think it will be the end of the world. They will still be able to obtain non-set crafted gear of equivalent ratings. Sure, lack of set bonus will make them miss out on a few hundred DPS but not the end of the world.

     

    I recognize that they will have problems paying for gear on the GTN, all I can suggest is getting in with a good guild, trading in rare materials, and/or crafting their own stuff.

     

    Do I wish BW would reverse course on this (e.g. perhaps a lower limit of GC points or slower rate of GC points earned for Preferred players vs subscribers so they don't earn gear as fast but can still obtain it?). Yes. But I can live with it, even when I transition to preferred (which I will absolutely do if the RNG crates stay).

     

    The RNG crates though are a total deal breaker. BW, listen to us, listen to the outcry. Give us tokens. Give us a list of gear to choose from. Don't give us a system where some poor schmuck is going to get (or could get) 12 bracers in a row.

     

    Please, do not destroy this game with RNG gearing crates.

     

    PS - I like having my sage wear tank gear. Don't take that option away from me.

    BWA / EA Management lives in the Star Wars Galaxy

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dr_Nex

    Or at least a galaxy far, far away from ours (e.g., reality).

     

    at 29:03

     

    "RIGHT NOW, we're seeing a lot of players FLOOD BACK to the game after the announcement, and um so we certainly don't want to do anything about server merges before the expansion goes live. Our experience last year was that suddenly people came back to the game and were really excited about the game and ALL THE SERVERS WERE SO FULL, and if we had merged ANY OF THEM we would have had you guys in queues waiting to play the game..."

     

    Then at 29:45: "Again, we're seeing so many people come back to the game I think ALL THE SERVERS will start to feel really full..."

     

    Bioware isn't claiming some servers were full after KOTFE. Oh no. Instead, they claim that "all of them" were "so full." That includes Jung Ma, Bastion, Pot5, e.g., servers on which there is an indisputable population problem. Even the most diehard BW apologists (and I know there a quite a few on these forums) wouldn't claim that those servers have ever been "so full" at any point in the past 2 years.

     

    At this moment.

    --Bastion Pub Fleet: 6 people

    --Pot5 Pub Fleet: 4 people

    --Jung Ma Pub Fleet: 4 people

    Feels really full to me all right.

     

    So seriously, what is going on at BWA / EA management? If anything exemplifies how out of touch BW / EA are with the community, it's the make-believe that all of their servers are so full and overflowing and that golly gee if they do anything at all to ameliorate the situation we'll all have to sit in interminable queues.

    To all you fools throwing out the played out "Can I Have Your Stuff" Line...

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    You complete and utter fools. This game has lost a HUGE amount of people since theyve implemented the Zakuul Story and heres a FACT, no matter if you think it is or not.... You'll be playing a 15 dollar a month game ALONE because with 5.0 the game will be a ghost town after about a month. What doesnt Bio-fail and these clueless players understand? They are so quick to say to others, "If you dont like it get out." Its all of us who make this game tick. Who wants to play a MMO where you have to pay every month by themselves? Anyone who doesnt pay the 15 has almost no say in this matter because Bio-fail has completely eliminated your guys chance at getting the gear anyway. Which to me, even though ive never once been f2p since the game began, I feel is really messed up as well. You guys probally have the ops passes that you've bought threw the cartel market and now ops has been reduced to a points grind. I'd want my money back for those passes.

     

    So... can I haz ur stuff?

    Gearing Changes in Eternal Throne

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The main reasons of annoyance for me personally are rather that:

     

    • You cannot gear up following a planned route like you used to be able before 5.0
    • You cannot plan in advance which of your guildies gets what token in advance anymore, thus gearing a whole raid group could potentially take ages if even only one of them has constant bad luck with RNG crates
    • Since F2P/Preferred players now are effectively completely locked out from getting BiS, or even any kind of set gear, they are no longer valid at all to take with on HM FPs or HM/let alone NIM OPs... they have thus effectively become second-rate players in now all relevant regards, which will severely limit the amount of players available to do HM/NIM content in the first place, especially on empty servers.

    Lol HM FPs has bolster. I've cleared plenty og HM FPs with level 50s and no 65s. It's much more about mechanics. If you're requiring augged 224s to do HM FPs, lol @ you.

    SWtOR 5.0 PTW??

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dr_Nex

    STO you can literally play that game for free. Sure the grind is a *****, but you can play everything for free, and grind out your unlocks as well if you want them (but you don't need them). Hell they made enough to hire the real life cast members for voice work. Way WAY more expensive then what they pay here.

    I don't think Garrett Wang and Tim Russ make as much as you imagine. There's a reason none of the TNG cast, Kate Mulgrew, Shatner etc. have any voice acting. SWTOR has some pretty famous voice actors, much more well-known outside SWTOR than Garrett Wang or Tim Russ are outside Star Trek.

    Whatever Happened to This Month's 5 Year 55% Off Anniversary Sale?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    It is an ugly armor set, I'm going to save up my Cartel Coins to get that new Nethema Zealot's Robes (I currently have over 900 coins thanks to have some left over from my sub reward ones, the 5500 that I bought, security key and refer a friend ones, still need 2 more to get all 5 prizes sadly :() it looks a lot better then the Huttsbane' Garments...

    Don't. They promised us 55%. Don't reward BW's refusal to honor this promotion by purchasing anything.

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