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Loot Crates: Predatory, Bad Odds and some of the worst practises in the business


CatrinTheWonk

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"People are never satisfied"

 

But I get how those people feel because I also feel like **** when my 1 platinum item turns out to be a mount that you can get a similar one with some credits. "Platinum" items ranged from worthless to 100B is a big issue, but since those value are decided by the market. there's really no perfect way to do it. Bottom line is, all CM items are cosmetic, so I won't complain much *shrugs*

 

OP has some serious flaw regarding their research (the sample size being too small for one), but I do tend to agree that SWTOR could be more transparent about the percentage of getting a certain grade of item from a pool.

 

From EA's perspective, this is a feature, not a bug.

 

Your highly probable disappointment is by design, and intended to drive repeat gambling.

 

And while most items are cosmetic, they're not cosmetic-only. They're also mules for money laundering, allowing cash to be converted into endgame Augs, and otherwise leak into every major game system.

 

If you're listening, Jackie, will you comment on your gambling products?

Edited by FlatTax
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I feel like people care too much, why did you expect to get something? Its for entertainment, they do know the chance it takes to get one specific item, its zero - you won't get it but if you're feeling lucky you could sell the items for the desired item.

 

Again, EA doesn't have to do anything, if people do not get the concept of gambling its on them honestly. I feel like some people think that EA is offering the game as a service and you buy from them, but its not true you are giving them money to let you play, if you choose to give them more for literally no content at all, well - bad luck.

 

I'm sorry but it is just not on EA to protect people from, not mandatory, luck based, not promoted and cosmetic items. It overflowing in other parts of the game like augs is true for everything else too.

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I feel like people care too much, why did you expect to get something? Its for entertainment, they do know the chance it takes to get one specific item, its zero - you won't get it but if you're feeling lucky you could sell the items for the desired item.

 

Again, EA doesn't have to do anything, if people do not get the concept of gambling its on them honestly. I feel like some people think that EA is offering the game as a service and you buy from them, but its not true you are giving them money to let you play, if you choose to give them more for literally no content at all, well - bad luck.

 

I'm sorry but it is just not on EA to protect people from, not mandatory, luck based, not promoted and cosmetic items. It overflowing in other parts of the game like augs is true for everything else too.

 

Here's the problem:

 

Predatory monetization is more profitable than good game design.

 

For those of us who want a better game, we're left holding the bag.

 

Ethical business practices aren't too much to ask for.

 

If you're listening, Jackie, what's your view?

Edited by FlatTax
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To the OP, you are getting PHD in loot boxes? What school is offering that?

 

On a more serious note, you're not going to get any support here when you immediately insult anyone who disagrees with you.

 

You cannot directly compare buying loot boxes to gambling. When buying a loot box you are promised (for example) five items. You open the box and you get five items. When gambling, you put your money down and you may or may not get it back (usually you don't get it back).

 

You keep saying that what Bioware (and other companies) are doing with loot boxes is illegal yet absolutely nothing has been done to them? They haven't lost any lawsuits or anything. Why is that? Because they have a roomful of lawyers that know way more about loot boxes and the laws that govern them than you do.

 

If you're so sure a class action suit would be successful, feel free to talk to some lawyers and see how far they will take it.

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I'm very critic of a lot of aspects about this game.

 

But the "Loot Crates" seems ok to me.

 

1- Is not exactly loot if you can't actually loot it, am i wrong? Maybe, but for me loot box are the creates with gear i get from completing some quests.

2- The cartel market offers a lot of direct sales and if i'm not mistaken every new addition is directly sold for some time so there not even a rush to gamble to get the latest cosmetic on the CM.

3- How is it compared to other similar games? At least in ESO is way way worst as there are little direct sales in comparison and some of those actually requires you to BURN massive amounts of crowns in packs in order to get enough duplicates to farm a secondary premium currency. On top of that the odds of good stuff are horrible. 3/4 items are junk and only one has a chance to be decent and usually isn't.

4- Gatcha odds? Go look videos of actual gatchas (or spend the same amount of money on a game like genshing impact), then compare.

5- TWO Platinum and docens of gold items average per 30 crates, that is good odds in my book. I actually have a little 'less' luck when i bought hypercrates a couple years ago, but close to that so i will even call this consistent.

6- The consider hit rate was indeed 5% because the 'increased odds' is recalculated after each PACK, not for individual items.

 

Can the system be improved? sure; but is not bad and talking about RICO case sounds kind of .... off.

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On 9/26/2022 at 1:24 PM, FlatTax said:

EA knows, with great precision, how many purchases it will take to obtain any given item.

No.  They don't know, unless the odds are fixed in some way, because a basic knowledge of random numbers and statistics should tell you that you might *never* get that item.

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It would be fascinating to know what school and discipline is offering a Phd in Loot Boxes. But from the OP's discourse here we can derive a few elements. It's definitely anything to do with actual Law Studies. And I hope to dear god the OP is not using his questionable proclamations of Law in defense of his work. 

I'm doubting it's an actual Math program. Because I'm sensing some really shady math here. Or rather skewing the math to reflect a desired outcome. Yes your chances are 5% by any rational examination. Most Laws and Reputable Statisticians would report this as a per transaction. Each pull of the lever. Not each sub reward. The chance of getting a top Platinum Quality prize per Ultimate Cartel Pack, a roughly $1.80 transaction is ~5% based on your rather small sample size. But to be fair you would probably need a minimum of around 2000 samples to get any real credible data. 240 is just not enough data points to draw any real conclusions. It's enough to at best form a hypothesis. 

I'm not saying that there aren't key Gambling Concerns in all in game loot box gamble mechanics. I'm not saying that EA isn't a key offender in online gambling mechanics. I'm saying your data, analysis and interpretations seem shaky. SWTOR's Gamble Boxes appear to be among the lesser evils of the industry. Among the lesser evils of EA (Have you heard of FIFA?) And certainly nowhere near Gatcha mechanics. 

Edited by Faefrost
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57 minutes ago, SteveTheCynic said:

No.  They don't know, unless the odds are fixed in some way, because a basic knowledge of random numbers and statistics should tell you that you might *never* get that item.

I'm familiar with statistics. Knowing the drop rates, including variable drop rates, absolutely allows you to accurately estimate costs.

One could determine, for instance, that X purchases produces a 50% chance of delivering the desired item, and it takes Y purchases to deliver a 99% chance.

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9 hours ago, FlatTax said:

I'm familiar with statistics. Knowing the drop rates, including variable drop rates, absolutely allows you to accurately estimate costs.

One could determine, for instance, that X purchases produces a 50% chance of delivering the desired item, and it takes Y purchases to deliver a 99% chance.

But that's not what you said.  You said, "how many it takes to get that item," not, "how many it takes to have X% chance of having got that item."

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Pretty pedantic, since cost for a 99.9% chance, and as many additional 9s as you might like, is easily calculable.

In fact, it sounds like fun.

Jackie, if you're listening, how about sharing the drop rates for SWTOR gambling products?

We can do Community math!

Edited by FlatTax
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Even if they aren't breaking laws, I do think there could be ethical or moral reasons for not putting loot boxes in the game or having limits on them. Some people will overspend or not be able to control their spending. If I added loot boxes to a game, I would have a limit on how many can be bought per month or maybe a monthly spending limit ($1000 feels about right to me). I would give people the option to buy all items directly with money or a new currency I'll just call Diamonds here. Each loot box would drop 1 Diamond with Bronze items costing 5 Diamonds, Silver costing 10 Diamonds, Gold costing 15 Diamonds, and Platinum costing 20 Diamonds. In other words, all items would be available directly for cartel coins or Diamonds, and if you chose to buy loot boxes, you could eventually get what you wanted using Diamonds (if luck wasn't in your favor).

Edited by ThanderSnB
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9 hours ago, ThanderSnB said:

Even if they aren't breaking laws, I do think there could be ethical or moral reasons for not putting loot boxes in the game or having limits on them. Some people will overspend or not be able to control their spending. If I added loot boxes to a game, I would have a limit on how many can be bought per month or maybe a monthly spending limit ($1000 feels about right to me). I would give people the option to buy all items directly with money or a new currency I'll just call Diamonds here. Each loot box would drop 1 Diamond with Bronze items costing 5 Diamonds, Silver costing 10 Diamonds, Gold costing 15 Diamonds, and Platinum costing 20 Diamonds. In other words, all items would be available directly for cartel coins or Diamonds, and if you chose to buy loot boxes, you could eventually get what you wanted using Diamonds (if luck wasn't in your favor).

Thinking back to the old (pre-Ultimate) packs, I think the word you're looking for is "Cartel Market Certificates", not "Diamonds", because that's exactly what CMCs were for.

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While I understand people's concerns about 'gambling' and people getting into financial difficulty, there is a case to be made for people staying out of other people's fun. There are lots of examples of 'gambling' in many basic things such as:

Getting a rare 'shiny' in a pack of sports cards, Pokemon cards, Magic the Gathering cards, etc.

Getting a rare 'Hot Wheels' (or other brand) model. 

Playing Bingo or Chase the Ace at the local community center.

Straight up 'gambling' at the local Casino or Las Vegas.

It may be difficult to strike a balance between 'fun' and 'addiction', but a total ban is not the answer. 🙂

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2 hours ago, FlatTax said:

The gambling here has a profoundly anti-consumer purpose: cost concealment.

Name one actual gambling scenario (casinos, lottery tickets, whatever) where the costs are fully revealed in a way that's easy to find.  (OK, the odds in roulette are easy to find, but where do you find the odds on that slot machine in Vegas?)

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8 hours ago, SteveTheCynic said:

Name one actual gambling scenario (casinos, lottery tickets, whatever) where the costs are fully revealed in a way that's easy to find.  (OK, the odds in roulette are easy to find, but where do you find the odds on that slot machine in Vegas?)

First, the bad behavior of casinos isn't a defense of gambling in SWTOR. If anything, it's damning.

Second, much of the casino business does have calculable odds. All card games, for instance. They have a level of transparency SWTOR doesn't give.

Jackie, if you're listening, will you comment on transparency?

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8 hours ago, FlatTax said:

First, the bad behavior of casinos isn't a defense of gambling in SWTOR. If anything, it's damning.

My point was that by saying, "The gambling here," you made it sound as if SWTOR's gambling is in some way specially bad.  It isn't.  Can you easily find the odds on a Vegas slot machine?

8 hours ago, FlatTax said:

Second, much of the casino business does have calculable odds. All card games, for instance. They have a level of transparency SWTOR doesn't give.

Yes.  I said as much (specifically for roulette, where the odds are *much* simpler to calculate than in card games).  I'd also note that back in the day, before they added platinum rarity to the game, the odds *were* documented - 5% for gold, 10% for silver, 85% for bronze.  (Search is currently not fully working, so I can't find the specific staff post, sorry.)

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4 hours ago, SteveTheCynic said:

My point was that by saying, "The gambling here," you made it sound as if SWTOR's gambling is in some way specially bad.  It isn't.  Can you easily find the odds on a Vegas slot machine?

It's uglier than most casino gambling; we have obfuscated payouts. Even if you 'win,' and you're lucky enough to get Platinum items, they're not created equal. I suspect desirable ones have greatly diminished odds even inside the Platinum category.

Jackie, if you're listening, do you have disparate drop rates inside rarity categories? If so, what are the highest and lowest probabilities inside the Platinum category?

Edited by FlatTax
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loot boxes are obviously not an issue, gambling in a game like this for just cosmetics is perfectly fine since it has no actual impact on the gameplay, the only reason to buy these boxes if you have not enough patience or funds to buy the specific item from the cartel market directly. you are making several active choices to buy funds, buy a crate and then open it so really its not a bioware/ea problem

sure if someone has a gambling problem or if a child somehow gained access to their parents credit card i can see an issue, but then the suggestion should be for the person to get help with their addiction or the parents to have better awareness of their children/credit card bills

across the board bioware has a very well-developed loot crate system that has very few/limited predatory tendencies, considering how this type of system is the norm in todays industry i am happy bioware have designed their system in this way, the alternatives could have been much much worse

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1 hour ago, RikuvonDrake said:

loot boxes are obviously not an issue, gambling in a game like this for just cosmetics is perfectly fine since it has no actual impact on the gameplay, the only reason to buy these boxes if you have not enough patience or funds to buy the specific item from the cartel market directly. you are making several active choices to buy funds, buy a crate and then open it so really its not a bioware/ea problem

sure if someone has a gambling problem or if a child somehow gained access to their parents credit card i can see an issue, but then the suggestion should be for the person to get help with their addiction or the parents to have better awareness of their children/credit card bills

across the board bioware has a very well-developed loot crate system that has very few/limited predatory tendencies, considering how this type of system is the norm in todays industry i am happy bioware have designed their system in this way, the alternatives could have been much much worse

I agree, but if your kid has access to the parent's credit card the parents are to blame. 

Platinum items are obviously differently valuable, but they all have the same drop chance

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31 minutes ago, FlatTax said:

Can you provide a source for that?

Jackie, this is an opportunity for meaningful engagement!

I think they mean that there is different demand for each platinum item. Though two items may both be labeled platinum, players might value one to be 2 billion while the other is only worth 500 million. For example, there's always a lot more demand for Revan armor or weapons (so players list them for higher credits).

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When I first read this thread, it was during the transfer from the old forums to the new (not an improved new BTW) All I can say is if you are indeed doing a PHD in such a subject but cannot even get the maths correct, it is not looking good for you in passing.

As for some of your comments such as the more you buy the greater the chance of getting a platinum item. Well first off while this is indeed said, it does not say to what degree it improves the chance, nor how many you actually need to buy/open to get an improvement. Or by what percentage. As such this is not something I take any notice off when buying them

 

Second you did not actually buy all that many, the fact you brought them on different accounts (or opened them on multiple accounts) mean that once you started opening crates on the different account, it would be reset to zero for how many you have opened. The amount does not go over to a different account. 

 

however, what I can say in support of your claim is, I have never had more than two platinum items per case ever. No matter how many I have brought. 

 

I can tell you I have had many good items from the packs, such as all 3 of the latest Mandalorian Armor sets, many companions, some highly wanted item by others which are often ask as WTB in gen chat. Such as unstable lightsabers as an example when they first came out. Yes, also had a lot of IMO rubbish, I mean how many huttball suits can you put in one 30 pack hypercreative? seems at least 6 in any case

 

Ultimately buying these is a gamble so really see no reason to complain.  If you must complain about them, however, at least make it worthwhile. Such as do we really need so many items in these packs you can get free in game, such companion gifts, Jawa junk?

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10 hours ago, FlatTax said:

Can you provide a source for that?

One might ask you a similar question about this statement: (i.e. Do you have any actual reason for suspecting that they aren't evenly distributed?)

18 hours ago, FlatTax said:

Even if you 'win,' and you're lucky enough to get Platinum items, they're not created equal. I suspect desirable ones have greatly diminished odds even inside the Platinum category.

 

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