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Slot machine proabilities examined


znihilist

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I won't go through where these numbers come from (although they are more or less confirmed via large usage of the slot machine).

 

Lose 25%

Play again 20%

Green Jawa part 10%

Blue Jawa part 10%

Purple jawa part 10%

Green reputation 10% (sells for 500)

Blue reputation 8% (sells for 1000)

Purple reputation 5% (sells for 2500)

CM certificate 2%

 

 

The important part of the whole thing is the play again probability which in effect modifies the chance of the rest.

So 1 token in your inventory have the following effective probabilities:

 

Lose: 31.25 % (0.25 + 0.2*0.25 +0.2*0.2*0.25 + ... )

Green Jawa part: 12.5%

Blue Jawa part: 12.5%

Purple Jawa part: 12.5%

Green reputation: 12.5% (sells for 500)

Blue reputation: 10% (sells for 1000

Purple reputation: 6.25% (sells for 2500)

CM certificate: 2.5%

 

 

So the question now, what value are you getting from each token ?

Each token cost 500 credit and on average returns 318.75 credits from rep tokens, which leaves you with 181.25 credit loss.

 

At this point it is easy to calculate how much each Jawa part and Certificate is costing you.

Every 1 Jaw part is costing you 1812.5, and 9026.5 credits for the CM certificate (EDIT: THIS IS WRONG DO NOT QUOTE THESE VALUES).

 

Let's do this in another way, for every 1000 tokens you buy.

You lose 181250 credit, you gain 375 Jawa token back (evenly divided among the 3 rarities) and 25 CM certificates.

 

Looking at the numbers, I think the Jawa parts needs to be slightly rebalanced, the effective probabilities should be

20% for Green, 10% for Blue and 7.5% for Purple.

 

 

EDIT:

Data from sample 1

1000 Token

26 Certificate

120 Green Jawa

141 Blue Jawa

110 Purple Jawa

132 Green Rep

107 Blue Rep

60 Purple Rep

Edited by znihilist
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I see percentage I don't see an excel table detailing all the drops you got in order to get to those percentage.

more so I don't see numbers from other players up there for comparison hence it's hard to consider those numbers you place there alone.

 

Facts:

on my server purple mats which used to cost 30-40 k dropped nearly to 15-10 k in few hours since the gambling begun.

people invested X money and got X + Y % more then they had.

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I see percentage I don't see an excel table detailing all the drops you got in order to get to those percentage.

more so I don't see numbers from other players up there for comparison hence it's hard to consider those numbers you place there alone.

Check your inbox.

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Facts:

on my server purple mats which used to cost 30-40 k dropped nearly to 15-10 k in few hours since the gambling begun.

people invested X money and got X + Y % more then they had.

 

While the price drop is certainly a fact, that doesn't mean the causation is as strong as you imply. As has been mentioned elsewhere, the price drop would have happened even without the slot machine.

 

Taking myself as an example, I sold 6 stacks of Midlithe crystals. Despite playing the slot machinf for a fair bit yesterday, only 50 ofr so of those were from jawa junk won on the slot machine. The rest I had stacked in my inventory, mainly from conquest, but also from CM packs.

 

It was pretty obvious that the price would drop as many people would do the same as me.

 

I'm sure the slot machine was a factoir in the prices dropping faster than they would iotherwise have, not least due to the psychological factor (people who might otherwise have said let everyone empty their holds, the prices will rise again will have sold more than they otherwise would have, I'd guess).

 

For myself I can say I would have stopped playing long ago, even if it wasn't for the cartel certificates which I'm using to stock up on decorations. The rate of return monney wise without those is good but not nearly as ghreat as many have implied (with certificates it is of course considerably better but with price adjustment the overall reward will drop.

 

If it weren't for the possibilty of macroing, I don'T even think a rebalancing would be necesary tbh, as few people will really want to sit in front of the slot machine all their game time....

 

TLDR: As so often, correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation (sometimes it does of course :p ).

Edited by Fraah
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While the price drop is certainly a fact, that doesn't mean the causation is as strong as you imply. As has been mentioned elsewhere, the price drop would have happened even without the slot machine.

 

Taking myself as an example, I sold 6 stacks of Midlithe crystals. Despite playing the slot machinf for a fair bit yesterday, only 50 ofr so of those were from jawa junk won on the slot machine. The rest I had stacked in my inventory, mainly from conquest, but also from CM packs.

 

It was pretty obvious that the price would drop as many people would do the same as me.

 

I'm sure the slot machine was a factoir in the prices dropping faster than they would iotherwise have, not least due to the psychological factor (people who might otherwise have said let everyone empty their holds, the prices will rise again will have sold more than they otherwise would have, I'd guess).

 

For myself I can say I would have stopped playing long ago, even if it wasn't for the cartel certificates which I'm using to stock up on decorations. The rate of return monney wise without those is good but not nearly as ghreat as many have implied (with certificates it is of course considerably better but with price adjustment the overall reward will drop.

 

If it weren't for the possibilty of macroing, I don'T even think a rebalancing would be necesary tbh, as few people will really want to sit in front of the slot machine all their game time....

 

TLDR: As so often, correlation doesn't equal causation.

 

You are of course right that the crashing prices preceed the actual items entering the market, but what we are seeing now is only the beginning. Not everybody has both the knowledge and access to slot machines right now. If left unchecked and both spread, it's fairly safe to assume that people will start macroing 3 slot machines over night and wake up with multiple stacks of t3 mats.

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Like I said in my post, I think the potential of macroing is the biggest problem, because, though maybe I just bore easily, but I cannot see myself (or most people) playing the slot machine for any extented length at a time, whatever the rewards. ^^ Edited by Fraah
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what bunch on nonsense...

as you played the machine and as you said "sold" 6 stacks already of course you won't admit it is broken.

 

I'm legit crafter and merchant of crafting materials.

when I see prices drop too much I'll post my items bit higher, hold back on storage or flip the stupidly cheap ones to avoid market crash.

 

Let's see the facts,

in the past we had jawa junk + vendors and the top tier mats were grade 9. all mats on all levels maintained a solid price+crafted items maintained a solid price according to their materials cost.

 

But how can you explain that in few hours since the slot machine gots out to limited amount of players market prices crashed in huge margin beyond reason?

simple... people purchase tokens for 500 credits the least they can get back is 500 credits. some people got more then 1 slot machine they keep playing on them for hours making loads of jawa junk and like sheeps purchasing huge amounts of mats and flooding the market.

 

Pre slot machine you had system to avoid such thing,

You could get jawa junk by:

1. Conquest (in which you crafted yourself along the way hence diluted your mats hoard in teh process, I believe the major amounts of conquest is done by crafting as it is easy as it gets).

2. Packs (which costs RL money you actually have to work for or in game money you need to spend time to get and also it is RNG and not that much spammable).

 

Now instead of bothering in conquests or paying for packs people using slot machine and once their rep is maxed they can sell the rep items, get free certs and jawa junk is used to purchase high grade mats and in the process crash the market.

 

Bioware just ruined the crafting market, the mats harvesting activity, conquest is utter useless now as you can get jawa junk easy enough and most mind boggling is that they give easy to get cartel rep status + access to rare items from packs.

if this slot machine thingy will keep it's existence I will never purchase another cartel item again as I know I can wait few months get easy rep items and certs and purchase all rare items for 100 k easily.

 

ALSO you might notice people can go on guild ship or random people house to play other people slot machine.

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what bunch on nonsense...

as you played the machine and as you said "sold" 6 stacks already of course you won't admit it is broken.

 

Hmm, I sold 3 of the stacks before I ever played the slot machine. As soon as I found out about the Grade 11 mats going on the jawas, I was intending to turn my pruple jawa junk into mats, because I was sure prices would drop significantely (as they did). And I didn't say the machine wasn't broken, I said I don't think the price drop which you attributed to the machines but instead to the mats being added to the jawa vendors (ofc, I have no proof of this, the only people who can know are Bioware, but I consider it far more plausible than your theory, as the price drop happened before most people realized what was happening with the slot machines).

 

I'm legit crafter and merchant of crafting materials.

when I see prices drop too much I'll post my items bit higher, hold back on storage or flip the stupidly cheap ones to avoid market crash.

 

Hmm, me too and I will continue to make much more from my crafting than I ever would sitting in front of the slot machine all day.

 

Let's see the facts,

in the past we had jawa junk + vendors and the top tier mats were grade 9. all mats on all levels maintained a solid price+crafted items maintained a solid price according to their materials cost.

 

Correlation does not equal causations.

 

A few more facts are that the grade 9 purple mats were never as expensive as say midlithe crystals were recently. Another fact is that conquests deliver huge amounts of purple jawa junk and many people had them stored away. Another fact is that there was a demand for purple mats which was higher than the supply.

 

But how can you explain that in few hours since the slot machine gots out to limited amount of players market prices crashed in huge margin beyond reason?

 

Because the jawas now sell purple mats.

 

Some of the price drop will be due to stored jawa junk, some due to jawa junk from the slot machines.

 

The main reason for this was conjecturally the reserves of purple jawa junk which people held which would have led to a reasonable price drop. The slot machines will havbe meant the price drop was considerably larger than otherwise to be expected, but one of the main reasons fgor this will have been psychological (people knowing there is not just a finite reservoir of purple jawa junk but also a new supply.

 

[

Bioware just ruined the crafting market, the mats harvesting activity, conquest is utter useless now as you can get jawa junk easy enough and most mind boggling is that they give easy to get cartel rep status + access to rare items from packs.

if this slot machine thingy will keep it's existence I will never purchase another cartel item again as I know I can wait few months get easy rep items and certs and purchase all rare items for 100 k easily.

 

ALSO you might notice people can go on guild ship or random people house to play other people slot machine.

 

Bioware significantly changed one crafting market, reducing prices anmd profit margins but by no means was this the most profiable one (in my experience).

 

Anyway, none of this was my main point, my main point is that price drops would have happened without the slot machine, would have been less extreme but probably not very much (that is my conjecture again).

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I will agree the slot machines contributed to the current drop in mat prices. But they would have dropped over time. As more people got geared up and needed less augments the market would have dropped in time.

 

I do think that whatever the current highest tier of mats are they should not be on the jawa junk vendors. I think the old mats should be the only ones. I also think all crafting schematics going forward start to use mats from all twits of mats as a drain for Using these mats.

 

Have you seen how many mats are now dropping when you harvest the current new mats. I was starting to think maybe bioware knows something we don't know. Maybe they are correcting something for the future and maybe crafting schematics will require a lot more resources I don't know what they are thinking. I do think the slot machine is a fun little thing. If they removed the jawa junk completely they could replace it with bound to legacy items such as speeders or pets as a reward so no market gets flooded but have the sell value to a vendor as junk sale like we are selling the rep items as a way to earn in game creds. I like this as an option to earn creds in game I think it should be looked at by how much can you earn doing dailies in an hour so you should be able to make the same have time played equal the same return I think time played in game is a good way who cares if one person grinds dailies or another person farms mats or another person plays the slots having different methods to earn cash keeps those three different people not jamming up your dailies if they are doing slots or if ur farming mats they are taking spawns and you can't find any.

 

I think removing the grade 11 mats altogether would stabilize the market.

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A possible solution....

 

Debuff like the crafting mat node decorations. Call it a "Responsible Gambling Poilcy". This will deal with most of the problems.

 

Except goldfarmers with hundreds of accounts, I guess....hmmm, oh well, back to the drawing board.

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A possible solution....

 

Debuff like the crafting mat node decorations. Call it a "Responsible Gambling Poilcy". This will deal with most of the problems.

 

Except goldfarmers with hundreds of accounts, I guess....hmmm, oh well, back to the drawing board.

 

This will render it completely useless, as I suggested a slight tweaking of the probabilities is more than enough if they are truly breaking the economy.

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Then they should bring back the cost of upgrading abilities, you can't have your cake and eat it too.

 

I have no idea where you drew that line of thought. I never bothered crafting before I got max level in first place so how paying for my skills from questing rewards is tied to crafting?

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Hmm, I sold 3 of the stacks before I ever played the slot machine. As soon as I found out about the Grade 11 mats going on the jawas, I was intending to turn my pruple jawa junk into mats, because I was sure prices would drop significantely (as they did). And I didn't say the machine wasn't broken, I said I don't think the price drop which you attributed to the machines but instead to the mats being added to the jawa vendors (ofc, I have no proof of this, the only people who can know are Bioware, but I consider it far more plausible than your theory, as the price drop happened before most people realized what was happening with the slot machines).

 

That makes two of us. I sold mine on Monday after I had read the patch notes. I guess we are the cause for the price drop. :eek:

 

A few more facts are that the grade 9 purple mats were never as expensive as say midlithe crystals were recently. Another fact is that conquests deliver huge amounts of purple jawa junk and many people had them stored away. Another fact is that there was a demand for purple mats which was higher than the supply.

 

Exactly. Pre 3.0 Mytag Crystals were available on the GTN for 10K or so. As soon as the new expansion was anounced and it was confirmed (even unofficially) that new mats would come out, it made no sense turning Jawa Junk into Grade 9 purples.

 

The main reason for this was conjecturally the reserves of purple jawa junk which people held which would have led to a reasonable price drop. The slot machines will havbe meant the price drop was considerably larger than otherwise to be expected, but one of the main reasons fgor this will have been psychological (people knowing there is not just a finite reservoir of purple jawa junk but also a new supply.

 

QFT. Just as the price of shares can take a hit when the owner of a large company is reported to be sick, a lot of that price drop can be attributed to people doing panic sales. Instead of undercutting a 25K offer by a few credits, the next seller will set the price at 20K, the next at 17K and so on. They fear the value of their stored mats will go down even more.

 

By the way, I would only call it a market crash if you could only sell the mats at a loss. Just because the profit margin goes from 1000% to 100% is not really bad. I did the calculation in another post: the average price per unit for Midlithe Crystals when running crew missions is less than 5K, so if you can sell them for 10K, it's still profit.

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I have no idea where you drew that line of thought. I never bothered crafting before I got max level in first place so how paying for my skills from questing rewards is tied to crafting?

 

Because this is a credit sink, this is probably one of the best changes to game economy in a long time.

If they are going to remove the biggest incentive for using this credit sink then no one will use it. Hence, they need to bring back the credit sink they removed in the first place.

 

There are more important things than mine and your crafting's profit margin.

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there is no margin.

 

and 12-15 k per mod I need to pay in order to transfer them each time new cartel market armor or new gear set is aqcuired?

 

repair bills for new l60 ops and FPs?

 

Crew skills is not tied to credit sinks.... credit sinks are there.. just adding new augment slot and transfer mods on 1 gear shell is around 100-150 k ! are you kidding me...

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what bunch on nonsense...

I'm legit crafter and merchant of crafting materials.

 

 

Let's see the facts,

in the past we had jawa junk + vendors and the top tier mats were grade 9. all mats on all levels maintained a solid price+crafted items maintained a solid price according to their materials cost.

I have to laugh.

 

After SoR hit it was easy to make millions because the market was starved, both I and a guildie made a huge fortune with relatively little effort from crew skills. I actually "lost" a lot of money when the market crashed because I still have hundreds of purple mats in inventory, but you know what? I don't care. Crafting with SoR paid for about 20M worth of vanity items for me, my friend made even more millions than me, and personally I didn't even do Rishi or Yavin so I haven't even been farming on Yavin. Just logging in on alts and a few clicks to send off crew missions, sometimes checking the market for underpriced mission discoveries and also, every day buying blue mats off GTN for below vendor prices and vendoring for a zero effort profit.

 

I've also accumulated a lot of jawa junk already from running conquest on my many alts, so on paper that's even more lost earnings for me. I've done very little crafting for conquest, just playing the game, so it hasn't hit my stockpiles at all.

 

But the facts are, it's too easy and I'm 100% certain that this broken economy is a factor, maybe a major factor, in the huge ammount of spam from credit sellers we've been receiving. Having the prices comes down, while it wipes away millions, maybe tens of millions, in value from my inventory, seems like a good thing. Given how you're reacting I'm guessing you've done far more crew skills than me, probably as much as the credit selling bots. I hope you can find some actual enjoyment in the game rather than treating it like a job where you have to earn credits.

Edited by MiaowZedong
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dude just.. wow... what nonsense...

 

same things affected market in the past (jawa junk + sellers) but only when we add the slot machine into the issue suddenly prices plummets.

 

SoR high end areas introduced areas so filled with nodes just casual first time play of my toons through the story (8 alts, on of each class) netted me over 2000 units of each crafting material just casually harvesting nodes along my paths.

the Slicing nodes tossed on me mission discovery like mushrooms after the rain but has anyone bothered to go harvest mats if he needed? no! people just cried about gtn prices.

 

I used to sell my excess crafting materials on gtn and past few weeks I mostly crafted for myself, but again fact is pre -SoR we had both jawa junk and vendors selling up to max level mats while post SoR only thing changed was slot machine and 5 hours after it was introduced prices crashed!

 

I enjoy crew skills, kill me for enjoying different parts of the game.

How do you think people would feel if slot machine would reward NiM ops titles or free PVP ranked cooms?

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