chrisftw Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I don't see any math. no no its there. you just can see it because the formula is hidden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bocefas Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 ARE YOU CEREAL?!?! You don't get in today, and it is 2 days earlier than they said they were going to start this, and you quit? You need to go and join the boy scouts or something, take a baking class, or basket weaving or something that requires patience man! To everyone who complains about not getting in, I hope your mother runs you over with her minivan. MISC? You Myrin Brah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biowulf Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Look... let's say they let in ~150-200k today (which isn't a stretch). They said they would invite MORE tomorrow. That means let's say they invited 250k-300k tomorrow (which also isn't a stretch) they said they would invite the same amount on Thursday. 150-200k the first day250-300k the second day250-300k the third day You're looking at a minimum of ~650k in 3 days using those arbitrary values. To stretch it out to the 19th (the day before the game releases) they would have to do about 150k a day on average (given 1,000,000 preorders). Does that seem logical? No. They won't do that. If anything, they did 150k today, tomorrow will be more etc. ZZZZZZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharpiie Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Most of the people pre ordered 21-27, so I assume all of August, and some of September will be in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethias Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 (edited) This is my life: http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/35hkh2/ Edited December 13, 2011 by Ethias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mufutiz Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I can almost guarantee this estimate is WAY off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrecklessMEDIC Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Assuming the pre-order numbers tapered off exponentially and the pre-launch continues as successfully as today, some basic math gets the following ESTIMATES. 12/13 - July 21-27 12/14 - July 28 - Aug 10 12/15 - Aug 11 - Aug 29 12/16 - Aug 30 - Sept 21 12/17 - Sept 22 - Oct 17 12/18 - Oct 18 - Nov 16 12/19 - The rest ESTIMATE ESTIMATE Very good. My estimate is more like: Dec 13th - July 21 - 27 Dec 14th - July 28 - Aug 14 Dec 15th - Aug 15 - Sept 21 Dec 16th - Sept 22 - Oct 28 Dec 17th - Oct 29 - Dec 1 Dec 18th - Dec 2 - Today Just my guess, but I think everyone will be in before December 19th if all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeviuosOne Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 that would suck for the 19th people since they are shutting it down that day for maintenance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerdi Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 10 bucks says you will. wp'd sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bocefas Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Tues Aug 15th - 30th Wed Sept 1st 15th Thurs Sept 15th - 30th Friday Oct 1st - 15th Sat / Sunday Off Monday Oct 15th - Nov 1st Tuesday Dec 20th Open launch! They gave me a warning for my Estimate earlier.. See my sig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makagoto Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 i suppose it will be friday or saturday for the rest of us and guessing is no rocket science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyDominion Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 (edited) All my speculation but.. From all the reading and data just a regular person could get their hands on, it seems to me a reasonable sum of people that pre-ordered including digital may land somewhere in 1.3 mil or 1.4. Let's assume 1.3 million pre-ordered and I'm not really good at math so bear with me. Today we saw roughly 200-250k invites go out. Increased ammount tommorrow to be followed by the next day. So being generous on numbers let's assume 300k tommorrow and 300k the following day, and barring any technical mishaps perhaps another 300k on friday? Would put the finishing number to around 1.15 mil in by friday? Does this seem reasonable? Or do you think the numbers are too high? If they are going to slow and low technique, we could have seen 200k today and 250k, which would stretch early acess more evenly across the 7 day EGA. Would look like 200 (tues) +250 (wed) +250 (thur) +250 (fri) +250 (sat) 1 mil in by saturday, would leave the 300k for sunday or monday or split 150k each day. The big day in my opinion will be friday night. Roughly around 6-8 est. In my opinion there will be the peak ammount of players on and I think Friday night will dictate how they proceed. Edited December 13, 2011 by MyDominion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biowulf Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Tues Aug 15th - 30th Wed Sept 1st 15th Thurs Sept 15th - 30th Friday Oct 1st - 15th Sat / Sunday Off Monday Oct 15th - Nov 1st Tuesday Dec 20th Open launch! They gave me a warning for my Estimate earlier.. See my sig? Your estimate is pretty bad. Tuesday - July 21st - 27th Weds - July 27th - October 1st Thursday - October 1st - November 1st Friday - November 1st - Present Would be more likely than yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisftw Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Tues Aug 15th - 30th Wed Sept 1st 15th Thurs Sept 15th - 30th Friday Oct 1st - 15th Sat / Sunday Off Monday Oct 15th - Nov 1st Tuesday Dec 20th Open launch! They gave me a warning for my Estimate earlier.. See my sig? you're missing large portions of month in your advanced overly complicated mathematical deduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfmb Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 this is like giving an answer to a question you've never seen. pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSPD Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Assuming the pre-order numbers tapered off exponentially and the pre-launch continues as successfully as today, some basic math gets the following ESTIMATES. 12/13 - July 21-27 12/14 - July 28 - Aug 10 12/15 - Aug 11 - Aug 29 12/16 - Aug 30 - Sept 21 12/17 - Sept 22 - Oct 17 12/18 - Oct 18 - Nov 16 12/19 - The rest ESTIMATE ESTIMATE It's so sad that the community has to put out posts like this when simple communication from the developer would aleviate so many issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baalazar Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm glad OP doesn't predict our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nilssonen Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I THINK everything depends on the servers. For example, if they had 100,000 invited today and the servers took the pressure w/o problems they will try to add 150,000 tomorrow. If the servers get a bit unstable they will go down again but if it stills goes problem free they will raise the number again. So everything depends on their servers, if they can handle big logins everyone might get several days pre-access but if they can't handle it right of the bat some people might have to be happy with 1 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 45%+ of the preorders occurred after Oct 11 (based off of vgchartz). Therefore your numbers are way too conservative. 14.5% will get in each day. Orders before Oct 11th will get in on the 16th at the latest. vgchartz are about as accurate as a monkey with a slingshot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atanvardo Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Did you know that 36.7% of statistics are made up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfmb Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 (edited) I THINK everything depends on the servers. For example, if they had 100,000 invited today and the servers took the pressure w/o problems they will try to add 150,000 tomorrow. If the servers get a bit unstable they will go down again but if it stills goes problem free they will raise the number again. So everything depends on their servers, if they can handle big logins everyone might get several days pre-access but if they can't handle it right of the bat some people might have to be happy with 1 day. isn't that kind of what the betas near the end were for though? To test all this stuff out? Edited December 13, 2011 by surfmb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solrael Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That fits with the general estimates based on the spreadsheet that's been going around. Either way, really doesn't matter. Tomorrow, next Tuesday, or anytime in between, it'll all be alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smocra Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Found this graph in another thread. not sure where it came from or it's accuracy but the sales figures do look right. Tomorrow should see people from august and september get in but there's no way to tell where the cut off would be. http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/6562/egamin.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crocolisk Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 if they dont let everyone in by friday, the storm will be huge. I gave up...this is pointless now. I wont be playing past the free month. See you in 2 months bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crocolisk Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Found this graph in another thread. not sure where it came from or it's accuracy but the sales figures do look right. Tomorrow should see people from august and september get in but there's no way to tell where the cut off would be. http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/6562/egamin.png That graph has the earliest invites in 7/11, and then pulls back to 6/11 pre-orders? Sounds like someone with too much time on their hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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