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theJediMaste

theJediMaste

Posted
Posted
Im posting this on behalf my guild mate Zàck (something weird is going on with his privilege to post in the forums), his forum name is mireushted.

 

Server: Tomb of Freedom Nadd

Guild: Dark Requiem

Char name: Zàck

 

SENTINEL -- WATCHMAN -- 36/8/2 -- DPS: 3806

Log: http://www.torparse.com/a/487478/time/1383960754/1383961055/0/Overview

 

Wrong dummy

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odawgg

odawgg

Posted
Posted (edited)

"Caught a hanger, Sarge."

"What? A hanger? I don't even know what you're saying."

"He's saying you're dealing off the bottom of the deck."

"Oh, God. Come on, guys."

 

My favorite movie :D So anyway, I'm currently on a quest to find the most optimal Pyro rotation so I can compile a nice little guide for my fellow mercs. Since Marisi consistently was pumping out better numbers I decided I'd analyze it to see if I could learn something from it. After breaking it down I noticed some patterns in crit %'s that seemed very unlikely but I wanted to find out just how unlikely they were. Here is the parse in question:

 

Marisi - Mercenary - Pyro 2/8/36 - 3641.21

Log: http://www.torparse.com/a/480161/time/1383487724/1383488068/0/Overview

 

In the end, i concluded that these numbers were far to "rare" for me to believe them and gave Marisi a chance to either come clean or disprove me before publicly humiliating her or myself if I was wrong. I spent the last week on this just to ensure I wasn't jumping to conclusions.

 

Anyway, I already wrote it all once so no reason to re-write it, I'll just post my message to Marisi.....

 

 

Hi Marisi.....(boring stuff)....Anyway so since you’ve been able to pop out better pyro parses than me everytime I make one I thought hey, maybe she has a rotation that’s more effective than mine, so I wanted to break both our parses down carefully for analysis. My goal was to strip away the luck factor, which in pyro’s case just the crit really…all proc’ing is pretty consistent and predictable unlike arsenal. So what I did was break all the ability damage down to it’s base damage. Taking into account everything like missed attacks (which are counted as hits for torparse data making crit rate display on the table lower than it truly is). I then calculated the “expected damage” based on expected crit & miss rates for both MH and OH ticks. This allows for me to compare each of our priority systems and see which one had a higher expected damage. Since our gear level is roughly equal, this should give us a solid answer to that question.

 

I concluded after all calculations that your expected damage based on the ability distribution in that particular parse to be 3343.73. The table I’ll show you in a bit, but this is basically the average parse you would have if every parse had that identical ability distribution and take the RNG factor out of it. Now mine turned out to be 3459.37, stating that between our ability distributions mine will yield a higher average dps by more than 100 dps. I feel with Pyro, repeating an ability distribution is can be achieved at a reasonably high rate as for the predictability of procs.

 

Anyway, my point here is not to gloat about my priority system and such, it’s to just show you what I’ve been up to and why I took such a close look at your parse. I started thinking, man I like, felt my parse was REALLY lucky to be what it was so if your parse required WAY more luck than mine, what is the likelihood of that happening? I wanted to find a way to quantify this likeliehood so I could cross off the list that this could be doctored.

 

Now this is where you’re going to begin (if not already) to not like me :( The one thing that really stood out to me was your crit % in that parse. I’ve seen lucky parses plenty of times, as far as I was thinking, it could happen, I’ve had some doozie’s in the past myself. But I was thinking with Pyro, there’s really not that much RNG for crit cuz there’s sooooooo many ticks with all the DoTs and flurry attacks. So I decided to find a way to calculate the true crit rates on some of the abilities that don’t display right like rapid shots and any offhand attack that can miss. I created a spreadsheet that could extract from a copy/pasted log all the necessary info to make these calculations without error (Yes I spent a lot of time on this). Here is what I got in the end:

 

Pizza Parse Breakdown

Marisi Parse Breakdown

 

What I’ve done is show two studies on each of these parses. One was the “expected dps” to see which priority system resulted in the best ability distribution as described before. The lower section has broke down different aspects of the crit rates attained in the parse and their likelihood. The top part shows the overall true crit rates and the likelihood to attain that rate. It’s broken down between the 3 types of damage based on their crit rating and the overall is a weighted average. This particular probability is not a primary focus, just a reference. Cuz when it comes to putting out deeps, it’s not just crit rating, it’s WHAT abilities are doing the crit’ing. So the bottom section eliminates any hits that are irrelevant to dps such as offhand attacks and rapid shots. These data can only skew the overall likelihood of a parse to achieve max dps. Furthermore, the primary focus should lay on the hardest hitting abilities, the abilities that have the potential to significantly increase dps. So you’ll see I’ve done a subtotal in the lower section showing the probability of attaining the weighted crit rate of that relatively powerful group of abilities. I’ve also shown individual ability probabilities for more detailed look on where the numbers are coming from.

 

Probabilites were calculated using the BINOM.DIST() function in excel. This is a precise probability function that can be used with this data. It uses the number of hits, the expected crit rate, the number of crits in the parse to tell you the probability of he occurrence (hitting at least that crit rate). The subtotals and totals are the probability of occurrence of that entire set or subset weighted crit distribution.

 

First if you look at my crit breakdown, the probability of me getting the high damage subset crits I got was about 1 in 170. Pretty rare, if you look further down the line, the probability of my entire relavant hits was much better, only about 1 in 6. The probability of getting this high of dps is probably somewhere in between those two numbers, not sure where exactly.

 

Now if you look at yours, the probability of the high damage crits is 1 in 49,084 o.0. By adding in the rest of the MH(main hand) Ranged and Tech attacks your at 1 in 773. Double o.0. Again the probability of getting this high dps is somewhere in between, but yowzers I’ll be damned if someone found that diamond in the ruff.

 

Please Marisi, Please! I honestly don’t want this to be true, I want to be wrong. Put my foot in my mouth for me and show me what I did wrong with my analysis, something that I’m not taking account for, something to convince me that this is a parse that is quite possible and not doctored, which regrettably, I am convinced it is at this point. I wanted to bring this to you first to get your response, but it’s gonna have to be pretty convincing if you stick to claims of it being legit ;)

 

P.S. if there is a convincing rational and I end up sticking my foot in my mouth, I apologize ahead of time and will /kiss your feet begging for forgivenss for eternity, I promise! But if it’s doctored, shame on you! ;) I will not go public with it if it’s admitted/withdrawn.

 

 

Marisi did reply with a rather weak (by my standards) reply, neither confirming nor denying my allegations. But did make an effort to illegitimze my math:

 

 

Hey,

 

If my memory serves me correctly, while your individual ability binomial distributions are valid, you cannot simply sum the hits, crits and take an average expected crit rate to feed into a separate binomial distribution simply because each ability is an independent event with separate rates of probability:

 

http://statistics.stanford.edu/~ckirby/techreports/ONR/SOL%20ONR%20467.pdf

 

 

Now she's both right and wrong here, the way I calculated the sum of the distributions was only an "approximation" and not "exact" method for finding the probability. I plugged the examples her link had in them into my spreadshet and was able to reproduce the answers in the examples tables within a reasonable level of accuracy. In fact one of the "approximations" listed in her link was in fact the way I did it, it would be considered the "initial approximation."

 

Anywho, I decided instead of trying to figure out this exact probability to legitimize my claims with fancy math, I decided to actually simulate both the top 5 ability (subtotal) distribution and also the overall MH/Tech attacks to see how close my approximation was. I simulated the Top 5 over 10 million times and got an actual probability of 1 in 63,607 chance. For the overall MH/Tech I simulated over 2 million times and got 1 in 836. So even though my approximation was not completely accurate, they were actually underestimated in terms of rareness.

 

Since Marisi wasn't interested in confirming/denying my claims, I decided to share this with you all and decide for yourself if the odds of hitting these crit percentages are reasonable in your eyes, they definitely are not in mine and I've deemed it a cheated parse at this point.

Edited by odawgg
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Kinslayer

Kinslayer

Posted
Posted

I actually had written up a longer and more 'personal' reply to your PM other than the one I sent you but I was waiting on your reply before sending it or any others in return.

 

First up, while the rest of my AMR profile was up to date, I did forget to change one of the crystals I was using at the time on it from a power to a crit. It's only a slight increase overall (~0.7% for both) but from the data in the image you sent me it shortens the odds from 1 in ~50,000 to ~20,000.

 

Of course, this chance is still highly unlikely. Can't deny that. Similar feeling to what I had just before 2.4 when you posted your 70% crit HSM parse, which is about a 7 in 100,000 chance by itself. I'm not trying to deflect or anything here, I'm just saying that your result then was incredibly unlikely as well as this one was now and that these things do happen.

 

Regardless, you at least seem rather determined to think the worst of me so I am more than prepared to send you a video of each parse I post here if it makes you feel better.

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thomasgharvey

thomasgharvey

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

"Caught a hanger, Sarge."

"What? A hanger? I don't even know what you're saying."

"He's saying you're dealing off the bottom of the deck."

"Oh, God. Come on, guys."

 

My favorite movie :D So anyway, I'm currently on a quest to find the most optimal Pyro rotation so I can compile a nice little guide for my fellow mercs. Since Marisi consistently was pumping out better numbers I decided I'd analyze it to see if I could learn something from it. After breaking it down I noticed some patterns in crit %'s that seemed very unlikely but I wanted to find out just how unlikely they were. Here is the parse in question:

 

 

 

In the end, i concluded that these numbers were far to "rare" for me to believe them and gave Marisi a chance to either come clean or disprove me before publicly humiliating her or myself if I was wrong. I spent the last week on this just to ensure I wasn't jumping to conclusions.

 

Anyway, I already wrote it all once so no reason to re-write it, I'll just post my message to Marisi.....

 

 

Hi Marisi.....(boring stuff)....Anyway so since you’ve been able to pop out better pyro parses than me everytime I make one I thought hey, maybe she has a rotation that’s more effective than mine, so I wanted to break both our parses down carefully for analysis. My goal was to strip away the luck factor, which in pyro’s case just the crit really…all proc’ing is pretty consistent and predictable unlike arsenal. So what I did was break all the ability damage down to it’s base damage. Taking into account everything like missed attacks (which are counted as hits for torparse data making crit rate display on the table lower than it truly is). I then calculated the “expected damage” based on expected crit & miss rates for both MH and OH ticks. This allows for me to compare each of our priority systems and see which one had a higher expected damage. Since our gear level is roughly equal, this should give us a solid answer to that question.

 

I concluded after all calculations that your expected damage based on the ability distribution in that particular parse to be 3343.73. The table I’ll show you in a bit, but this is basically the average parse you would have if every parse had that identical ability distribution and take the RNG factor out of it. Now mine turned out to be 3459.37, stating that between our ability distributions mine will yield a higher average dps by more than 100 dps. I feel with Pyro, repeating an ability distribution is can be achieved at a reasonably high rate as for the predictability of procs.

 

Anyway, my point here is not to gloat about my priority system and such, it’s to just show you what I’ve been up to and why I took such a close look at your parse. I started thinking, man I like, felt my parse was REALLY lucky to be what it was so if your parse required WAY more luck than mine, what is the likelihood of that happening? I wanted to find a way to quantify this likeliehood so I could cross off the list that this could be doctored.

 

Now this is where you’re going to begin (if not already) to not like me :( The one thing that really stood out to me was your crit % in that parse. I’ve seen lucky parses plenty of times, as far as I was thinking, it could happen, I’ve had some doozie’s in the past myself. But I was thinking with Pyro, there’s really not that much RNG for crit cuz there’s sooooooo many ticks with all the DoTs and flurry attacks. So I decided to find a way to calculate the true crit rates on some of the abilities that don’t display right like rapid shots and any offhand attack that can miss. I created a spreadsheet that could extract from a copy/pasted log all the necessary info to make these calculations without error (Yes I spent a lot of time on this). Here is what I got in the end:

 

Pizza Parse Breakdown

Marisi Parse Breakdown

 

What I’ve done is show two studies on each of these parses. One was the “expected dps” to see which priority system resulted in the best ability distribution as described before. The lower section has broke down different aspects of the crit rates attained in the parse and their likelihood. The top part shows the overall true crit rates and the likelihood to attain that rate. It’s broken down between the 3 types of damage based on their crit rating and the overall is a weighted average. This particular probability is not a primary focus, just a reference. Cuz when it comes to putting out deeps, it’s not just crit rating, it’s WHAT abilities are doing the crit’ing. So the bottom section eliminates any hits that are irrelevant to dps such as offhand attacks and rapid shots. These data can only skew the overall likelihood of a parse to achieve max dps. Furthermore, the primary focus should lay on the hardest hitting abilities, the abilities that have the potential to significantly increase dps. So you’ll see I’ve done a subtotal in the lower section showing the probability of attaining the weighted crit rate of that relatively powerful group of abilities. I’ve also shown individual ability probabilities for more detailed look on where the numbers are coming from.

 

Probabilites were calculated using the BINOM.DIST() function in excel. This is a precise probability function that can be used with this data. It uses the number of hits, the expected crit rate, the number of crits in the parse to tell you the probability of he occurrence (hitting at least that crit rate). The subtotals and totals are the probability of occurrence of that entire set or subset weighted crit distribution.

 

First if you look at my crit breakdown, the probability of me getting the high damage subset crits I got was about 1 in 170. Pretty rare, if you look further down the line, the probability of my entire relavant hits was much better, only about 1 in 6. The probability of getting this high of dps is probably somewhere in between those two numbers, not sure where exactly.

 

Now if you look at yours, the probability of the high damage crits is 1 in 49,084 o.0. By adding in the rest of the MH(main hand) Ranged and Tech attacks your at 1 in 773. Double o.0. Again the probability of getting this high dps is somewhere in between, but yowzers I’ll be damned if someone found that diamond in the ruff.

 

Please Marisi, Please! I honestly don’t want this to be true, I want to be wrong. Put my foot in my mouth for me and show me what I did wrong with my analysis, something that I’m not taking account for, something to convince me that this is a parse that is quite possible and not doctored, which regrettably, I am convinced it is at this point. I wanted to bring this to you first to get your response, but it’s gonna have to be pretty convincing if you stick to claims of it being legit ;)

 

P.S. if there is a convincing rational and I end up sticking my foot in my mouth, I apologize ahead of time and will /kiss your feet begging for forgivenss for eternity, I promise! But if it’s doctored, shame on you! ;) I will not go public with it if it’s admitted/withdrawn.

 

 

Marisi did reply with a rather weak (by my standards) reply, neither confirming nor denying my allegations. But did make an effort to illegitimze my math:

 

 

Hey,

 

If my memory serves me correctly, while your individual ability binomial distributions are valid, you cannot simply sum the hits, crits and take an average expected crit rate to feed into a separate binomial distribution simply because each ability is an independent event with separate rates of probability:

 

http://statistics.stanford.edu/~ckirby/techreports/ONR/SOL%20ONR%20467.pdf

 

 

Now she's both right and wrong here, the way I calculated the sum of the distributions was only an "approximation" and not "exact" method for finding the probability. I plugged the examples her link had in them into my spreadshet and was able to reproduce the answers in the examples tables within a reasonable level of accuracy. In fact one of the "approximations" listed in her link was in fact the way I did it, it would be considered the "initial approximation."

 

Anywho, I decided instead of trying to figure out this exact probability to legitimize my claims with fancy math, I decided to actually simulate both the top 5 ability (subtotal) distribution and also the overall MH/Tech attacks to see how close my approximation was. I simulated the Top 5 over 10 million times and got an actual probability of 1 in 63,607 chance. For the overall MH/Tech I simulated over 2 million times and got 1 in 836. So even though my approximation was not completely accurate, they were actually underestimated in terms of rareness.

 

Since Marisi wasn't interested in confirming/denying my claims, I decided to share this with you all and decide for yourself if the odds of hitting these crit percentages are reasonable in your eyes, they definitely are not in mine and I've deemed it a cheated parse at this point.

 

 

Someone has a sore butt :/

Edited by thomasgharvey
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namesaretough

namesaretough

Posted
Posted

Every parse on this leaderboard is a lucky one. All arguments of this sort are going to come down to one person saying to another "I don't think you were really this lucky", and the only possible response for the accused is "well, I was, that's all I can say".

 

Unless you're proposing someone determine exactly how lucky a person is allowed to be, or people submit videos with parses, there's no way to prove to a doubter the legitimacy of a parse called into question like this.

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Emperor-Norton

Emperor-Norton

Posted
Posted

Why do people cheat on these threads? Who cares if you aren't the best player with a certain spec or class. You are playing an Online Fantasy game, get some perspective and calm down. By being here you are already one of best out there and if I was raid leading I would take anyone here to clear pre-nerfs NiM DG (unless your raid awareness was horrible).

 

While I am here, I guess I will be on topic. I was hoping to get the MH this week and restart parsing when I was near BiS, but that didn't happen. So I am uploading a parse I did several days ago. Slowly getting to Gorband level with this spec. :p

 

Macedonicus - Sentinel - Watchman - 36/8/2 - 3500.71

 

AMR

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RynZelara

RynZelara

Posted
Posted

As far as I see it odawgg, you have no way of completely disproving the legitimacy of the parse. The odds could be 1 in 6, the odds could be 1 in 6,000,000. There is still a chance it could happen. And as long as that chance remains, unless you have definitive proof that the parse was doctored (from the log), then there's no basis for your claim other than a blind leap of faith, so to speak.

 

Don't get me wrong, I more than understand where you're coming from. Those odds are hard to swallow. But every time I think about odds, I think about all the years I've been playing pokemon. And how many hours I've pumped into each and every game that's been released since Gold, Silver, and Crystal. And I have NEVER once encountered a shiny pokemon. Ever. In several games where I've logged more than 300-400 hours. I know people that encounter a shiny pokemon in the first few hours of their pokemon playthrough.

 

It's all chance.

 

Besides, at the end of the day, that's all it is: A lucky parse. The top spot on these leaderboards really comes down to, not who has the most optimal rotation (because most people posting on this board know optimal rotations), or even who can execute their rotation the most flawless. It comes down to: Who has more time? Because all the high numbers on this board are a result of lucky parses that go above the standard, average parse one would normally get when taking into account their gear and rotation, and execution of that rotation.

 

I guess the long and short of it is, unless it is statistically impossible, it can't be disproved without definitive proof of doctoring. That's the bottom line. =) Does that suck for a board like this? Sure. After all the purpose is to get the highest number. But if the planets align for that one good parse for one person, then that person very well could hold the top spot for a while, until the planets align again for someone else, or until the gear cap changes again.

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odawgg

odawgg

Posted
Posted (edited)
I actually had written up a longer and more 'personal' reply to your PM other than the one I sent you but I was waiting on your reply before sending it or any others in return.

 

First up, while the rest of my AMR profile was up to date, I did forget to change one of the crystals I was using at the time on it from a power to a crit. It's only a slight increase overall (~0.7% for both) but from the data in the image you sent me it shortens the odds from 1 in ~50,000 to ~20,000.

 

Of course, this chance is still highly unlikely. Can't deny that. Similar feeling to what I had just before 2.4 when you posted your 70% crit HSM parse, which is about a 7 in 100,000 chance by itself. I'm not trying to deflect or anything here, I'm just saying that your result then was incredibly unlikely as well as this one was now and that these things do happen.

 

Regardless, you at least seem rather determined to think the worst of me so I am more than prepared to send you a video of each parse I post here if it makes you feel better.

 

I did actually do this same analysis with the parse you're speaking of : Pizza "Luckiest" Arsenal Parse Cuz I was thinking the same thing...However, taking into account all other high damaging abilities, it was less rare than my pyro parse so I left it out. I still consider it to be the luckiest parse I've had cuz of the HSM factor, but had everything else not crit it wouldn't have ever been posted...

 

All these do of course go down a litlte, as you mentioned, if your AMR profile was not configured properly. As for the more detailed, personal response that never got written, I just didn't get the feeling you had much interest in my claim so I didn't want to beat a dead horse.

 

@Namesaretough and @RynZelera, you're both right, I have no proof...just speculation. Hitting that "diamond in the rough" could happen at any time. The method of proposed cheating in this case is not detectable or provable with the tools and information we have to analyze a parse.

Edited by odawgg
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Kinslayer

Kinslayer

Posted
Posted
I did actually do this same analysis with the parse you're speaking of : Pizza "Luckiest" Arsenal Parse Cuz I was thinking the same thing...However, taking into account all other high damaging abilities, it was less rare than my pyro parse so I left it out. I still consider it to be the luckiest parse I've had cuz of the HSM factor, but had everything else not crit it wouldn't have ever been posted...

 

All these do of course go down a litlte, as you mentioned, if your AMR profile was not configured properly. As for the more detailed, personal response that never got written, I just didn't get the feeling you had much interest in my claim so I didn't want to beat a dead horse.

 

@Namesaretough and @RynZelera, you're both right, I have no proof...just speculation. Hitting that "diamond in the rough" could happen at any time. The method of proposed cheating in this case is not detectable or provable with the tools and information we have to analyze a parse. I just don't feel this diamond was found without mowing the lawn first.

 

Don't you see the flaw in your analysis then by looking at your arsenal spreadsheet? According to your calculations, because your other heavy hitting attack crit rate wasn't really high the overall probability of getting that many MH crits was a 1 in 79 chance. Fair enough. But it completely ignores the fact that one of them was a 1 in 9,024 chance.

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odawgg

odawgg

Posted
Posted (edited)
Don't you see the flaw in your analysis then by looking at your arsenal spreadsheet? According to your calculations, because your other heavy hitting attack crit rate wasn't really high the overall probability of getting that many MH crits was a 1 in 79 chance. Fair enough. But it completely ignores the fact that one of them was a 1 in 9,024 chance.

 

the odds of hitting a certain dps is always somewhere in between the rarest occurrence and a more broad occurrence. Cuz I could have hit the same dps with a different distribution....just like you could have hit the same dps with a different distribution, That's why I factor in more than just one ability that hits only 20 times in a parse. However in Arsenal parse has another rather major luck factor to consider with barrage procs...I don't have more time to spend to try and figure how that factors in. In the end, HSM crit helps a lot but is not the end all, be all. HSM accounted for 16% of my damage, the top 5 in pyro accounted for I believe around 70% of your damage.

 

Edit: Heading out for the evening, be back on in the morning

Edited by odawgg
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mireushted

mireushted

Posted
Posted (edited)
Why do people cheat on these threads? Who cares if you aren't the best player with a certain spec or class. You are playing an Online Fantasy game, get some perspective and calm down. By being here you are already one of best out there and if I was raid leading I would take anyone here to clear pre-nerfs NiM DG (unless your raid awareness was horrible).

 

While I am here, I guess I will be on topic. I was hoping to get the MH this week and restart parsing when I was near BiS, but that didn't happen. So I am uploading a parse I did several days ago. Slowly getting to Gorband level with this spec. :p

 

Macedonicus - Sentinel - Watchman - 36/8/2 - 3500.71

 

AMR

 

May you tell me why your minimun damage from merciless slash is 7,4k? Until now i always have seen less 1k(OH)

Edited by mireushted
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RynZelara

RynZelara

Posted
Posted
Darjia - Sage - Telekinetics -3/36/7 - 3165,03 DPS

 

Parse

 

Gear

 

As much as I'd like for this number to be beatable by myself currently, I feel obligated to point out that your best number was actually 3226.29, right at the 5 minute mark. =) Great parse. I'm still looking for a 40%+ crit chance on Disturbance in my parses....I'll get it eventually.

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