Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 From the article, first paragraph (two, if you count the summary): It is just an opinion piece! Michael Pachter did zero research! :-P (And for the sarcasm impaired, that is just a little jab at some other posters. Not serious.) No Pachter usually knows what he's talking about, But he didn't take into account the actors and missed his mark on estimated staff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noodlehaus Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) Well, thank you for proving my point for me in albeit a different manner. You showed that even if I'm wrong, I'm still right? How you might add? The entire POINT I was trying to make is that the Forbes kid. DOES EVERYONE STILL REMEMBER THIS THREAD IS ABOUT THAT KID THAT "WORKS" FOR FORBES?!?!?! You just said that THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW if SWTOR is a success or how that success is impacting EA. So if I'm right (which I still think I am) The Forbes kid is wrong and the entire premise of the OP is wrong. If you're right, then OP is still wrong and the Forbes kid is still wrong as well. Either way I win... So... thank you? I am not saying you're right or wrong or if the OP is right or wrong. I'm explaining quarterly earnings reports should be understood and looked at. Your so-called evidence that you pulled from the slides mean nothing in gauging SWTOR's profitability, no matter how much uppercase letters you use or emotion you put in when typing your responses. I am not proving your point because you don't have a valid one in the first place. Your claim that SWTOR is profitable has no basis, but so is the claim that SWTOR is driving EA to the ground. But SWTOR subscription numbers being left out of the presentation is a strong sign of how the game is doing. Edited July 31, 2012 by noodlehaus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comstrike Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 http://uk.pc.ign.com/articles/122/1220280p1.html Old article is way out of date at this point. More interesting is the new Forbes article denoting the real Wall Street analyst that pinned active subs at about 500,000, down from his previous estimate of 1,000,000. LIkewise, with the earnings call tomorrow afternoon, post 4 p.m., a growing number of analysts are downgrading EA stock. Though most are focused on issues beyond SWTOR's poor performance, it does get some play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taorus Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 http://uk.pc.ign.com/articles/122/1220280p1.html You do understand, That aside from the Actors and the outsourced personal.....Staff wouldn't be figured in the developmental costs of the game.....they would be counted in the operation cost of EA/Bioware over all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taorus Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Old article is way out of date at this point. More interesting is the new Forbes article denoting the real Wall Street analyst that pinned active subs at about 500,000, down from his previous estimate of 1,000,000. LIkewise, with the earnings call tomorrow afternoon, post 4 p.m., a growing number of analysts are downgrading EA stock. Though most are focused on issues beyond SWTOR's poor performance, it does get some play. what new Forbes article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 You do understand, That aside from the Actors and the outsourced personal.....Staff wouldn't be figured in the developmental costs of the game.....they would be counted in the operation cost of EA/Bioware over all. No but the analyst estimations of staff were off, so his numbers are off- That is a fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taorus Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 No but the analyst estimations of staff were off, so his numbers are off- That is a fact So...No you do not understand the difference between a developmental budget and operating costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) You do understand, That aside from the Actors and the outsourced personal.....Staff wouldn't be figured in the developmental costs of the game.....they would be counted in the operation cost of EA/Bioware over all. "with an estimated 200 full-time developers working on it, we estimate that EA’s investment exceeds $80 million," which was estimated in 2011 That is a said-quote when he gave the estimations of 80 million, we know that number <of staff> is now higher, and that is a fact Edited July 31, 2012 by Ensquire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saltydogg Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 You do understand, That aside from the Actors and the outsourced personal.....Staff wouldn't be figured in the developmental costs of the game.....they would be counted in the operation cost of EA/Bioware over all. I wonder what paymanet those Staff people accept? Cheese, water and stale bread? Well guess what you still have to pay for staffing somewhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) So...No you do not understand the difference between a developmental budget and operating costs. Actual Number of people working on development which is fact 30 Production 75 Designers 80 Engineers 40 Platform 10 Localization 10 Audio 140 Artists (Both internal and outsourced) 280 QA (Both internal and outsourced) That is how much staff they employed which is much higher then 200 Edited July 31, 2012 by Ensquire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saltydogg Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 "with an estimated 200 full-time developers working on it, we estimate that EA’s investment exceeds $80 million," which was estimated in 2011 That is a said-quote when he gave the estimations of 80 million, we know that number is now higher, and that is a fact You know something 2nd quarter results will end this discussion pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saltydogg Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Actual Number 30 Production 75 Designers 80 Engineers 40 Platform 10 Localization 10 Audio 140 Artists (Both internal and outsourced) 280 QA (Both internal and outsourced) Hence the reason why the game failed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comstrike Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 what new Forbes article? Saw it at work today, hunting for it now. But Google News for Electronic Arts and you'll see the rest of the news about downgrades. You'll also find the articles denoting the VP the EA Interactive division, and the VP in charge of the "Bioware-Mythic" studio, as part of a panel within the last week, commenting that "Freemium" is the future. Note, I think that is how they'll market around the stigma of Free to play, and just slap the "Freemium" label on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Saw it at work today, hunting for it now. But Google News for Electronic Arts and you'll see the rest of the news about downgrades. You'll also find the articles denoting the VP the EA Interactive division, and the VP in charge of the "Bioware-Mythic" studio, as part of a panel within the last week, commenting that "Freemium" is the future. Note, I think that is how they'll market around the stigma of Free to play, and just slap the "Freemium" label on it. I'd like to read that article can i get a link please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saltydogg Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Saw it at work today, hunting for it now. But Google News for Electronic Arts and you'll see the rest of the news about downgrades. You'll also find the articles denoting the VP the EA Interactive division, and the VP in charge of the "Bioware-Mythic" studio, as part of a panel within the last week, commenting that "Freemium" is the future. Note, I think that is how they'll market around the stigma of Free to play, and just slap the "Freemium" label on it. You are correct sir. As soon as the remaining community hears F2P this game will be done. So Freemium will be the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taorus Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 "with an estimated 200 full-time developers working on it, we estimate that EA’s investment exceeds $80 million," which was estimated in 2011 That is a said-quote when he gave the estimations of 80 million, we know that number <of staff> is now higher, and that is a fact Once again....Employee's of EA/Bioware are not counted in developmental costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Once again....Employee's of EA/Bioware are not counted in developmental costs. OK i'll write it out again this is the official number of staff EA has given in Development of this game Actual Number 30 Production 75 Designers 80 Engineers 40 Platform 10 Localization 10 Audio 140 Artists (Both internal and outsourced) 280 QA (Both internal and outsourced) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andryah Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) Original Thread http://www.industrygamers.com/news/star-wars-mmo-costs-an-estimated-80-million-to-develop/ The actual original annalist was from the Highly respectable Micheal Pachtor (No I mean that Pachtors awesome), whom cased his projections from an estimated staff of only 200 of six years of development We now know that number sits around 600 So having said that the number of costs could be and should be much higher Edit quote from the article "with an estimated 200 full-time developers working on it, we estimate that EA’s investment exceeds $80 million," Also those projections did not take into account the Voice staff or actors Actual Number 30 Production 75 Designers 80 Engineers 40 Platform 10 Localization 10 Audio 140 Artists (Both internal and outsourced) 280 QA (Both internal and outsourced) You assume they hired your above list FULL TIME for the duration of the project. Development projects don't work that way. Projects bring on different talent for the the period they are needed and then release them to other things. It's one of the reasons these companies like to use contractors to fill out the peaks in their development when they can. This is basic project management. In reality, the median for the duration of the project will be more like 30%-35% of peak headcount (that's normal for large software development projects). Which, interestingly enough, puts the development cost close to the analysts projection of $80M and my less optimistic estimate of $90M that I posted earlier. Edited July 31, 2012 by Andryah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taorus Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 OK i'll write it out again this is the official number of staff EA has given in Development of this game Actual Number 30 Production 75 Designers 80 Engineers 40 Platform 10 Localization 10 Audio 140 Artists (Both internal and outsourced) 280 QA (Both internal and outsourced) And all them are 1099'd? If not....they are Employee's of EA\Bioware...and their salaries ARE NOT PART OF DEVELOPMENTAL COST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) You assume they hired your above list FULL TIME for the duration of the project. Development projects don't work that way. Projects bring on different talent for the the period they are needed and then release them to other things. It's one of the reasons these companies like to use contractors to fill out the peaks in their development when they can. This is basic project management. In reality, the median for the duration of the project will be more like 30%-35% of peak headcount (that's normal for large software development projects). Which, interestingly enough, puts the development cost close to the analysts projection of $80M and my less optimistic estimate of $90M that I posted earlier. Ok that article came out in 2011 and had to speculate on staff you can go read it yourself, any other article has come up with an estimation of cost because the game HAS ENDING CREDITS and shows who and what went into the game Edited July 31, 2012 by Ensquire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andryah Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 You do understand, That aside from the Actors and the outsourced personal.....Staff wouldn't be figured in the developmental costs of the game.....they would be counted in the operation cost of EA/Bioware over all. Actually, staff would be part of the project budget for the actual effort they perform on the project. That's the way large projects are funded and handled in software development (hardware development as well for that matter). But people are not parked on a project to sink in their costs for three years as some here want us to believe. They are there when they are needed, and then released to other projects when they are not needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andryah Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 any other article has come up with an estimation of cost because the game HAS ENDING CREDITS and shows who and what went into the game Credits DO NOT tell you how much time any given credited person spent on the project, nor when they actually joined the project. So you cannot back calculate the cost of a project based on the credits list (any more then you could do it for a movie production). Sure some people like the executive producer and leads are pretty much committed full time to the project, but most of the resources are brought on when needed and released when not needed. Basic Project Economics Therory & Practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/07/30/ea-on-weak-warfighter-sales-cowen-chops-estimates/ Forbes estimated 500k of subscribers rather then 1 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taorus Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Actually, staff would be part of the project budget for the actual effort they perform on the project. That's the way large projects are funded and handled in software development (hardware development as well for that matter). But people are not parked on a project to sink in their costs for three years as some here want us to believe. They are there when they are needed, and then released to other projects when they are not needed. True...and those that are\were 1099'd would count in the development costs...But full time Employee's would not. This list he has linked does not make the distinction between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Credits DO NOT tell you how much time any given credited person spent on the project, nor when they actually joined the project. So you cannot back calculate the cost of a project based on the credits list (any more then you could do it for a movie production). Sure some people like the executive producer and leads are pretty much committed full time to the project, but most of the resources are brought on when needed and released when not needed. Basic Project Economics Therory & Practice. Actually people in the industry, can predict what a movie can cost up to +-10%, without detailed plans, its called experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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