Forbes thinks TOR is a financial disaster for EA. Your thoughts

[dalekjs]

Investors have made no comment on SWTOR. Investors don't comment on their investments, analysts, pundits, and armchair critics do.

 

So your premise is false right out the gate. As for how a company (and the investment community looks are ROI and profits, as I have shared in other threads, capital investment to develop a product is a sunk investment cost that is depreciated over a period of years. Whereas profit from a product investment is realized over a period of years, not months. It's simply too early in the life cycle of SWTOR to meaninfully comment on it's ROI to EA, and it's total profit stream to the bottom line of the company.

 

With the game bleeding subs still, it's logical to say that its potential will be pretty hard to be realized at this point. Sure it's still early, but it's not going to get better

[Ensquire]

Didn't read all 22 pages, but the reason investors say that swtor is a failure is because the profit simply didn't match the risk. They took on a massive risk, with the game costing at least 200M to produce, and with that risk, a good profit is expected. Right now we're not even sure they made back the initial investment, and if they did the profits would be marginal, so the risk was nowhere worth the investment.

 

with the advertising and a global marketing campaign that number could well be into the 500m range

[Tuscad]

It's the 80's all over again!

 

I don't know if you meant this in jest but odds are we will see a video game crash soon, just not as bad as what happened in the 80's.

[Ensquire]

Just guessing that their plan did not include recouping everything within 12 months let alone 6. EA's FY2012 Q4 net GAAP revenues were $1.368 BILLION. Any cash flow contribution SWTOR has (good or bad) is but a twinkle in the night sky for EA.

 

Its interesting that EA stock bottomed out days before the quarterly shareholders meeting

[jarjarloves]

Wow, because.

 

Fleet numbers would be lower at launch because you don't start haning out there wait for queues as much until 50.

 

You spend much more time off fleet leveling up. You have to wait until the server matures to look there.

 

When fatman was full before the merge it was 250 in fleet not 100,

 

http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/

 

SW:TOR, used to be over 16 percent here.

 

facepalm

 

How many times do I have to tell you it's not just fleet. ITS EVERY PLANET. When the game launched EVEN ON FULL SERVERS the worlds where empty. Now the worlds have hundreds of players on them.

 

Really you are trying to use X-fire as proof of something? ROFL now I know you are just trolling. Whats next you are going to find some obscure blog post?

[Ensquire]

I don't know if you meant this in jest but odds are we will see a video game crash soon, just not as bad as what happened in the 80's.

Just so you don't think the pc platform is sinking

 

Explain Diablo 3 first week sales then?

This thread is supportive to what your saying

here a link to support that PC games sales are actually on the rise for 2010, 2011 & 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2012/07/09/diablo-3-spearheads-230-jump-in-pc-game-sales/

http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2011/03/01/pc-is-strong-pc-games-revenue-up-20/

 

That the only reason console sale are down is because this generations console is nearing the end of its life cycle and that this trend in sales has been true to form for the past four generation of consoles, here's Ubisoft president stating as much. I

 

http://ca.ign.com/articles/2012/07/23/ubisoft-industry-penalised-by-long-console-cycle

[belizar]

I don't know if you meant this in jest but odds are we will see a video game crash soon, just not as bad as what happened in the 80's.

 

closing down some of these former great companies might not be a bad thing look at the indie games market so many good ideas and games from ppl with a shoestring buget

[GalacticKegger]

closing down some of these former great companies might not be a bad thing look at the indie games market so many good ideas and games from ppl with a shoestring buget

Most of them are Facebook or iPad games though, so they can get away with having a shoestring budget. Edited July 28, 2012 by GalacticKegger

[Lt_Latency]

facepalm

 

How many times do I have to tell you it's not just fleet. ITS EVERY PLANET. When the game launched EVEN ON FULL SERVERS the worlds where empty. Now the worlds have hundreds of players on them.

 

Really you are trying to use X-fire as proof of something? ROFL now I know you are just trolling. Whats next you are going to find some obscure blog post?

 

It's not obscure,

 

They used to be at 16 percent there now they are at 5/

they had to merge down servers.

Those server used to be full to very heavy all the time they are not any more. Some don't even hit very heavy anymore

The forums have crawled to a slow with low active. They were more active before the game even launched.

 

You can just dismiss all the sign if you want but they are there.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Lt_Latency

[Andryah]

http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/

 

SW:TOR, used to be over 16 percent here.

 

MMOdata.net believes that xfire data about SWTOR is valid in terms of giving a relative measure of change in subs, with xfire measure underreporting by about 15% on a relative basis. The guy runs a pretty solid subs monitoriing site, and uses multiple sources and validations for sources to interpolate sub numbers when sub numbers are absent from company announement. So I tend to trust what MMOdata.net has to share.

 

SO, if we use the MMOdata assumption about xfire and SWTOR, coupled wih earlier formal announcements on SWTOR populations, then the xfire data suggests a current subs level of ~600K. And actually, if you take the consolidated server activity levels and extrapolate historically normal numbers in MMOs for % logged in on a server (ie:10%), you also back into a number in the 600K range.

 

So, 600K active at this time, and a reduced operations cost (ie: from lowered costs due to layoffs) and I do not see an MMO losing money. We are 7 months into the game, and there is nothing in those 7 months to indicate any money losing profile for the game. They have reacted quickly to declines in subs in the spring to resize their operations. If the nomadic nature of todays MMO players drives active subs down further, then I expect they will again resize their operation to remain profitable. It's common sense business 101. So the game could run for years and never drain a dollar from EAs profits, but rather continue to contribute profits (though at smaller contribution levels).

 

Net of this is: SWTOR did not and will not make as much money for EA as analysts predicted and desired. That's not a disaster, it's just a lost opportunity to add profits to EAs bottom line is all.

[jarjarloves]

It's not obscure,

 

They used to be at 16 percent there now they are at 5/

they had to merge down servers.

Those server used to be full to very heavy all the time they are not any more. Some don't even hit very heavy anymore

The forums have crawled to a slow with low active. They were more active before the game even launched.

 

You can just dismiss all the sign if you want but they are there.

 

rofl so now xfire can show subscription numbers?????

[Lt_Latency]

MMOdata.net believes that xfire data about SWTOR is valid in terms of giving a relative measure of change in subs, with xfire measure underreporting by about 15% on a relative basis. The guy runs a pretty solid subs monitoriing site, and uses multiple sources and validations for sources to interpolate sub numbers when sub numbers are absent from company announement. So I tend to trust what MMOdata.net has to share.

 

SO, if we use the MMOdata assumption about xfire and SWTOR, coupled wih earlier formal announcements on SWTOR populations, then the xfire data suggests a current subs level of ~600K. And actually, if you take the consolidated server activity levels and extrapolate historically normal numbers in MMOs for % logged in on a server (ie:10%), you also back into a number in the 600K range.

 

So, 600K active at this time, and a reduced operations cost (ie: from lowered costs due to layoffs) and I do not see an MMO losing money. We are 7 months into the game, and there is nothing in those 7 months to indicate any money losing profile for the game. They have reacted quickly to declines in subs in the spring to resize their operations. If the nomadic nature of todays MMO players drives active subs down further, then I expect they will again resize their operation to remain profitable. It's common sense business 101. So the game could run for years and never drain a dollar from EAs profits, but rather continue to contribute profits (though at smaller contribution levels).

 

Net of this is: SWTOR did not and will not make as much money for EA as analysts predicted and desired. That's not a disaster, it's just a lost opportunity to add profits to EAs bottom line is all.

 

Some of it may be reduced play time though, people would play less over after the first month or 2. I have no idea what they are. I just think it's unrealistic to not think they are not going down over all.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Lt_Latency

[Lt_Latency]

rofl so now xfire can show subscription numbers?????

 

No it shows a sample of activity. Before it took up 16% of the MMO play time from it's sample group.

 

That same group now takes up 5% which seem to go with other things you can look at about what is happening.

 

You find me some indicators of an upward trend. I can't find them.

[Andryah]

I don't know if you meant this in jest but odds are we will see a video game crash soon, just not as bad as what happened in the 80's.

 

Actually, it could well be a crash of similar magnitude to what happened in the 80s. A lot of the characteristics are similar and there has been way too much proliferation of PC and console games over the last 3 years (which was a prime catalyst for the crash of the 80s). And console games being a dominant share in the market place, the end of life phase for whatever the current game console is can also be a significant catalyst.

 

Only time will tell though. I do know I would not want to be holding stock in any of the companies, even the huge ones. Too much risk with too little upside IMO.

[jarjarloves]

No it shows a sample of activity. Before it took up 16% of the MMO play time from it's sample group.

 

That same group now takes up 5% which seem to go with other things you can look at about what is happening.

 

You find me some indicators of an upward trend. I can't find them.

 

wow talk about goal post shifting. ROFL

 

concession accepted.

[Lt_Latency]

wow talk about goal post shifting. ROFL

 

concession accepted.

 

I didn't shift anything.

 

I said the population is going down I stand by that,

 

I am showing you many many indicators that go along with that idea. You are just attacking me personally which means nothing

Edited July 28, 2012 by Lt_Latency

[jarjarloves]

Nah, the star wars IP is a joke in Asia.

 

They don't get it. So they should not be expected to get alot of subs from there.

 

Oh wow you must be trolling if you don't think SW isn't huge in Asia.

[Lt_Latency]

Oh wow you must be trolling if you don't think SW isn't huge in Asia.

 

Still trying to act me instead of giving any useful information I see.

[GalacticKegger]

Net of this is: SWTOR did not and will not make as much money for EA as analysts predicted and desired. That's not a disaster, it's just a lost opportunity to add profits to EAs bottom line is all.

I'm not sure the game stood a chance of meeting market speculator's intial expectations. They were thinking in terms of being IPO-style overnight lottery winners when the game was clearly going to take at least a year to make it into the red. Edited July 28, 2012 by GalacticKegger

[Tekkoclarky]

Maybe they should of shown some interest when BW chose the crappy hero engine, aka the worst engine for a game ever.

 

Well for an MMO, it's fine as a single player.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Tekkoclarky

[Andryah]

Oh wow you must be trolling if you don't think SW isn't huge in Asia.

 

I think he is referring to the classic segments of Asia that draw very large popultions into online game play (ie; China).

 

I don't know if they "get" SWs in China or not. I do know that the game design is not all that condusive to the China/Korean style of MMO play.

[Ensquire]

You realize the forbes website is stuffed full of average joe blows who can publish articles on there, right? I mean, you're basically citing a blog.

 

When you say "forbes" thinks it's a disaster that is 100% inaccurate and misleading. Grow some sense.

 

 

He is a journalist and contributor for forbes, not a blogger

http://blogs.forbes.com/people/paultassi/

 

You show a guy the ocean and tell him the earth is round and they still are going to claim its flat

[jarjarloves]

I think he is referring to the classic segments of Asia that draw very large popultions into online game play (ie; China).

 

I don't know if they "get" SWs in China or not. I do know that the game design is not all that condusive to the China/Korean style of MMO play.

 

either is WoW but yeah Star Wars is big in China as well. Last year I got the opportunity to travel to Hong Kong and Shanghai. Star Wars was clearly the largest western presences there. I'll never forget our tour guide called me and my girlfriend Luke and Leia.

[jarjarloves]

Maybe they should of shown some interest when BW chose the crappy hero engine, aka the worst engine for a game ever.

 

Well for an MMO, it's fine as a single player.

 

I love it when people play arm chair developer. It's an interesting technique talk about something technical and it makes you sound smarter then you are and like you know what you are talking about.

 

Please enlighten me explain to all of us what is wrong with the coding in the Hero Engine

[GalacticKegger]

He is a journalist and contributor for forbes, not a blogger

http://blogs.forbes.com/people/paultassi/

 

You show a guy the ocean and tell him the earth is round and they still are going to claim its flat

He's a hired gun:

• http://www.moviefancentral.com/paul-tassi
  
• http://unrealitymag.com/index.php/2011/09/14/why-video-game-journalism-is-a-sham-2/
  
• http://trueslant.com/tassi/
  

Edited July 28, 2012 by GalacticKegger