Subs down 25%

[RedWolfs]

I like this quote form the IGN article:

"Most of the subscriber number drop was attributed to the loss of more casual players."

 

You can read it here: http://pc.ign.com/articles/122/1224460p1.html

 

LOL. Not sure where IGN got this, no direct quote is cited. But if that's what BW/EA thinks....they are very wrong. The hardcore "fans" if you can call them that, left months ago because there wasn't enough to do. They leveled, cleared every operation and got bored.

 

Note they also said SWTOR was stable..... 2.4>1.7>1.3 million.... Yup that is what we call a stable decline, and profitable for what 9 more months at this rate of decline? Trends matter, they set buzz, and Bioware is doing NOTHING to reverse the trend with the ostrich act. 1.3 will not correct the problems of loss, and they as a company will have to admit to themselves at least that there is a problem, before they will have the corporate will to address the problem.

[Holden_Dissent]

The game is fine and will be fine. When transfers hit

[eldisper]

I found this non bias report ä The Investment Rationale/Risk section of this

Stock Report will be updated shortly. For the

latest News story on EA from MarketScope,

see below.

ä 05/08/12 10:35 am ET ... S&P MAINTAINS HOLD

OPINION ON SHARES OF ELECTRONIC ARTS

(EA 13.92***): Mar-Q operating EPS of $0.17, vs.

$0.25, is below our $0.18 estimate. Non-GAAP

revenues fell 1.8% to $977M even though digital

revenues increased 59%.We think most of the

growth in digital revenues is the result of cannibalization

of sales through retail stores.We see

continued weakness in sales of video console

games and project fewer subscribers of Star

Wars. Despite reducing our FY 13 (Mar.) revenue

outlook, we lift our operating EPS forecast

$0.18 to $1.10 on higher gross margins and lower

operating costs.We cut our target price by

$4 to $16 on lower growth projection. /J. Yin,

 

 

Please help us ea i do not like lossing money I recommend 2 things right of the bat, #1 lffp tool,#2 a guild finder( i feel like im playing alone and its not from a lack of trying ,just not enough people on the servers imo. also way too many abilities imo they need to be consoldated or removed to maybe a total of 8 abilities only or even less 3 would be idea in my case.

Edited May 9, 2012 by eldisper

[RedWolfs]

The game is fine and will be fine. When transfers hit

 

When transfers hit, they will reduce the number of servers, as some will become tumble weeds. This is not a trend of a growing MMO, nor will this move change the view that the game is shrinking/dying that is in the gaming press right now. People do not check out games that are viewed to be dying, lowering your replacement sales rate. Bioware needs to create buzz, 1.1 did not 1.2 did not, I do not see how a long over due feature will create the needed buzz to change the trend lines. It may help stop the bleeding, but it will not create growth or the impression of growth that will truly turn things around.

[Esquire]

Note I said Smedly for a reason. As far as I know none of the old blood that came from SOE to Bioware thanks to Lucas Arts has openly called the NGE move a huge mistake. Admitting you have a problem (or something is a problem) is the first step in dealing with the problem. 1.1 and 1.2 have failed to amp subscriptions for a reason, they did not listen to a significant portion player base, and more than half who have tried this game are not paying subscribers today as a result. 1.3 will not have a meaningful spike in player base as Bioware as a company has not taken the first step in dealing with the problem they have created with the community.

 

The game is great, once you get past all the bugs, and the story is one of the best every applied to an MMORPG. I love the blend of MMORPG styles and systems they have. The customer would forgive much if Bioware would forget about metrics, and deal with people instead. While metrics say this may be a more balanced equation, if the player finds the new balance less fun, THEY WONT PAY FOR IT.

 

Seriously I have seen other MMO's driven into the ground the same way SWTOR is, Rift and LOTRO to name two. Rift has not turned it around, mostly because they made the choice as a company to cater to a select customer base of hard core gamers. LOTRO went down that road with their MOM/SOM expansions and each cost them subs. LOTRO turned their subscriber (not talking FTP account numbers, but the real subs as they are not a true FTP but a Hybrid MMO) when they again embraced a broader customer base.

 

/agree 150%. Smed even came out and said the NGE was a mistake. T2, the last producer and I had several convos and he knew at the time the NGE was a mistake. Chis Klug and I had several convos on a game he was the creative directer on and told me he interviewed for a "creative director" position at SOE, they told him about the upcoming NGE and he told them that is was a mistake and all that was needed was adding some themepark and content to CU. He didn't get the job.

 

These BioWare old school SOE guys, however, went merrily along after the NGE thinking that was the be all, end all of MMO gaming. They weren't around at SOE to see the flack. I would expect they were up to their necks in TOR code thinking how this "NGE" was going to be the best thing since sliced bread. I see so many simuliaritys between SOE of then and BioWare of today it isn't even funny. They know best, they know what level of difficulty to put in, they know the balance of PVP, they know where and when to PVP, they know how the community should act together and what systems are needed, they know crafting is supposed to be second place to a "drop" economy. They know alot more than we do, about everything, and just like SOE and SWG they are now reaping the rewards of their egos with their subscription retention rates.

 

/agree also that the themepark is done here very well with the story, VOs, etc. I got worried before launch when a developer made of comment of end-game is re-roll. I'd imagine that's it a large scramble over at BW Austin now with EA having to make excuses to it's shareholders and investors of the sub loss here in just a very few months. These guys came up with the NGE when in crisus management mode over at SOE and I just can't quite figure out if they will, yet again, use their old habits to think they "can save the game" with yet another NGE type massive patch. The only thing that helps thru this is they don't have all that much player choice to take away in this game as it is as they never put any in, in the 1st place.

 

We will see what we will see, I guess. "There is nothing new under the sun", "History repeats itself"?

Edited May 9, 2012 by Esquire

[Zsavooz]

When transfers hit, they will reduce the number of servers, as some will become tumble weeds. This is not a trend of a growing MMO, nor will this move change the view that the game is shrinking/dying that is in the gaming press right now. People do not check out games that are viewed to be dying, lowering your replacement sales rate. Bioware needs to create buzz, 1.1 did not 1.2 did not, I do not see how a long over due feature will create the needed buzz to change the trend lines. It may help stop the bleeding, but it will not create growth or the impression of growth that will truly turn things around.

 

that would only come if they fundamentally change the games mechanics, which will never happen.

[lordgracy]

No one said it was going to be a major WOW competitor lol. The game has a different player base then wow see all the negative PvP post those players don't belong in this game. MMO's aren't meant to be an all classes are exactly i alike type of deal. What those players call crappy PVP I call fun PvP. It's got problems but it's still a growing game.

 

SWTOR is pretty much a direct copy and paste from WoW. Why the heck would it not be a WoW competitor? LOL

[Angedechu]

And meanwhile, WoW have 10.2 millions

 

Remember guys ? The game you mocked ? The game that you called ''for panda lovers and little kids'' ? 10.2 million.

[Mallorik]

And meanwhile, WoW have 10.2 millions

 

Remember guys ? The game you mocked ? The game that you called ''for panda lovers and little kids'' ? 10.2 million.

 

Wow is for panda lovers and kids, and so is swtor. but now that bioware had their eyes opened to who their actual player base is maybe they can change that.

[rakuenCallisto]

The game is fine and will be fine. When transfers hit

 

You just contradicted yourself in the same sentence.

[Kaisernick]

And meanwhile, WoW have 10.2 millions

 

Remember guys ? The game you mocked ? The game that you called ''for panda lovers and little kids'' ? 10.2 million.

 

a rare fluke in mmo world if after we get server transfers and some things are fixed we get back up to 2 mill id take that as a win.

 

no mmo will ever get to wows level again i think.

[solidkjames]

And meanwhile, WoW have 10.2 millions

 

Remember guys ? The game you mocked ? The game that you called ''for panda lovers and little kids'' ? 10.2 million.

 

The game that can literally create as many accounts as they want if one kid in China logs on for 10 mins and pays .35 cents then he is considered a sub? I don't care if 233242343 million people play that game it still sucks since they made it so easy.

Edited May 9, 2012 by Notannos
use of the word 'retard'

[RedWolfs]

a rare fluke in mmo world if after we get server transfers and some things are fixed we get back up to 2 mill id take that as a win.

 

no mmo will ever get to wows level again i think.

 

How?

 

Enable Server Transfers > ..... > Subscribers

 

reminds me of :

 

collect underpants > ..... > Profit

 

Server Transfers will not drive subscriptions. New content, and a good add campaign will do so. Though they will just urinate it down their leg if they do not fix the major game breaking bugs introduced with 1.2 (sound and lag), as well as address the rage quitters who are on lots of MMORPG news/forums talking about how Bioware doesn't care about their customers.

[Slurmez]

a rare fluke in mmo world if after we get server transfers and some things are fixed we get back up to 2 mill id take that as a win.

 

no mmo will ever get to wows level again i think.

 

Never say never, Warhammers epic total inclusion game plan could have done the job if it wasnt released way too soon, lacked investment capital and wasnt manned by morons. People write off WAR as just a PvP game but that was a post release direction change based on having no cash for PvE expansion. Warhammers plan was beyond epic, sadly it was also beyond Mythics capacity to realise, now it just lanquishes on life support as EA wont ever release the IP for a real company to make a go of it. Shame.

[nadokaoh]

The game that can literally create as many accounts as they want if one kid in China logs on for 10 mins and pays .35 cents then he is considered a sub? I don't care if 233242343 million people play that game it still sucks since they made it so easy.

 

its actully closer to a little more then 1 cent for 10 minutes

Edited May 9, 2012 by Notannos
moderated quote

[JeramieCrowe]

What happens to that 1.3 million "active" subscriber base when the free 30 days they gave us expires? I canceled a while ago but still have like 40 days left on my sub, thus it is "active". I guess it's clear why they gave them to us in the first place, to artificially inflate the subscriber number for this quarter's reports. Well played EA, well played, lol. Someone needs to alert Wall Street about this I think, hahaha.

 

Rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.

 

My 30 days hasn't even taken effect yet, so it's not counting mine, at least, nor anyone else's that bought 6 months.

[thestormiscoming]

Unfortunately I've cancelled my subscription tonight. I'm hoping things improve though, so that I might return.

[JeramieCrowe]

Are you nuts? EA would sooner let it limp on life support than release a prime IP back into the wild where it has the potential to be a competitor. Warhammer is a prime example of this, they slashed investment to the bone and put incompetents in charge of it then shipped staff off to their new shiney (SWTOR).

 

Its one thing to bin some no name junk but they will never release a valuable IP whether they are making use of it or not, think of the craptastic 1994 fantastic 4 film which was made purely to hold onto the IP, Im not comparing SWTOR to it of course, merely showing an example of the what companies will do to prevent the loss of an IP.

 

I see your point, and it's a good one. However, it's really moot since EA just said it's "very profitable" (page 7). What world do some of you come from where "very profitable" means "limping on life support"?

Edited May 9, 2012 by JeramieCrowe

[JeramieCrowe]

When transfers hit, they will reduce the number of servers, as some will become tumble weeds. This is not a trend of a growing MMO, nor will this move change the view that the game is shrinking/dying that is in the gaming press right now. People do not check out games that are viewed to be dying, lowering your replacement sales rate. Bioware needs to create buzz, 1.1 did not 1.2 did not, I do not see how a long over due feature will create the needed buzz to change the trend lines. It may help stop the bleeding, but it will not create growth or the impression of growth that will truly turn things around.

 

Trends of growing MMOs do not start until AFTER the first 6 months. Culling servers after the launch surge/dropoff is normal for every MMO.

 

At the 6 month mark, the trend of increasing subs is atypical. If TOR wished to enjoy that atypical trend, they need to get transfer/shut-downs and ranked warzones out THIS MONTH, get us some solo endgame content, and at least let us know what they're currently doing on their revamped open-world PvP.

[noladev]

However, EA just said it's "very profitable" (page 7). What world do you come from where "very profitable" means "limping on life support"?

 

Jeez man. What do you expect them to say? Just because they aren't waiving the white flag yet does not prove your point.

The obvious truth here is that if these trends continue SWTOR will be in the tank. We also have solid reason to suspect that the subscriber numbers they provided include folks that have already unsubbed or have NEVER SUBBED in the first place. I am very likely included in that number since my faith in Bioware lead me to purchase a 6 month sub back in January. Add in the free month and I am still being reported to the stakeholders as a paying customer for 99 more days.

 

25% loss of subscribers is staggering. There is no need for people to hype these numbers or to defend them because they really speak for themselves.

Right or wrong, patch 1.2 was looked at as an outright attack on what many of us enjoyed about the game. You can double that sentiment for those of us who happened to have chosen one of 1.2's gutted classes at launch (non-operative healers say hi)

[JeramieCrowe]

Jeez man. What do you expect them to say? Just because they aren't waiving the white flag yet does not prove your point.

The obvious truth here is that if these trends continue SWTOR will be in the tank. We also have solid reason to suspect that the subscriber numbers they provided include folks that have already unsubbed or have NEVER SUBBED in the first place. I am very likely included in that number since my faith in Bioware lead me to purchase a 6 month sub back in January. Add in the free month and I am still being reported to the stakeholders as a paying customer for 99 more days.

 

Absolutely. And, as I've already stated ad nauseum, they NEED to get on the ball with transfers, ranked warzones, endgame content and at least let us know what they're doing for open-world if they hope to enjoy an upward trend of subs, much less hold even.

 

So, you're really going off about nothing, and making assumptions about me that aren't true. Educate yourself about me before you ASSume, please.

 

25% loss of subscribers is staggering. There is no need for people to hype these numbers or to defend them because they really speak for themselves.

Right or wrong, patch 1.2 was looked at as an outright attack on what many of us enjoyed about the game. You can double that sentiment for those of us who happened to have chosen one of 1.2's gutted classes at launch (non-operative healers say hi)

 

It's in the numbers, man. I'm net defending BioWare here when I say that a 25% loss is ABOVE the typical MMO curve for a 6 month old MMO. It is what it is. Don't shoot the messenger. You're right, numbers do speak for themselves, but you have to take ALL of the numbers into consideration, don't you think?

Edited May 9, 2012 by JeramieCrowe

[ItanyaBlade]

With the exception of WOW name another game that has recovered in that way?

 

There has been no confirmation from anyone at EA or Bioware that DA3 staff has infact been moved.

 

How about the mother of all MMO flops, Anarchy Online?

 

That game crashed and burned when released, but steadily recovered subscriptions over time as they fixed problems.

 

It is more than possible for a game to garner more subscriptions after its initial release.

[Jett-Rinn]

And meanwhile, WoW have 10.2 millions

 

Remember guys ? The game you mocked ? The game that you called ''for panda lovers and little kids'' ? 10.2 million.

 

Yeah too bad 9.5 million of those subscribers are Asians that logged in for ten minuets or less, all the Western servers are ghost towns.

[Dokar]

Absolutely. And, as I've already stated ad nauseum, they NEED to get on the ball with transfers, ranked warzones, endgame content and at least let us know what they're doing for open-world if they hope to enjoy an upward trend of subs, much less hold even.

 

So, you're really going off about nothing, and making assumptions about me that aren't true. Educate yourself about me before you ASSume, please.

 

 

 

It's in the numbers, man. I'm net defending BioWare here when I say that a 25% loss is ABOVE the typical MMO curve for a 6 month old MMO. It is what it is. Don't shoot the messenger. You're right, numbers do speak for themselves, but you have to take ALL of the numbers into consideration, don't you think?

 

it is closer to 38%, they sold another 400k copies of teh game in that time too and still dropped to 1.3 mil

[Merex]

I'd like to know what EA was smoking when they blamed casuals for the fall in subs. I know plenty of hardcore people that have quit SWTOR. Edited May 9, 2012 by Merex