Premades ruining the pvp of this game

[funkiestj]

Remember kids: If you're consistently losing more than 50% of your games, the problem is most likely you.

 

Yes, but what sort of standard deviation for a solo pugger should we assume, Mr. Wizard? What confidence interval do you suggest? 2 standard deviations? Oh, wait, you don't have any way to generate a trustworthy standard deviation?

 

Statistics innumeracy FTW!

 

=======

 

Changing topics ... I will keep doing PvP warzones for a while, even if they stay as they are. That said, I really look forward to ranked warzones and everything that comes with the finished implemenation of this (not merely preseason). Once this has been rolled out I expect:

• bioware to have some good numbers on winning team composition (e.g. does a particular 8 man composition win more huttballs than another)
  
• bioware to put matches between the highest ranked teams under a microscope with respect to hack/cheating detection.
  
• perhaps even a mathematical model of solo PUG player skill, standard deviation et cetera.
  
• bragging rights rewards for fielding the strongest PvP teams. Perhaps some cool consumables (that confer no game play advantage)
  

Edited May 17, 2012 by funkiestj

[Orangerascal]

I think the part that really makes you look ignorant is the part where you say that the reason solo queuers queue solo is because they are bad and can't be part of a premade themselves, which is far from the truth for most.

.

 

When did I say that ... reading comprehension point I take it.

 

There are quite a bit of dynamics involved in getting into premades, guilds, etc. that are above and beyond the actual skill level of a player -- I'm a prime example. I have been invited into premades many times, but am unable to join simply because my RL schedule prevents me from doing so on a consistent basis. It has nothing to do with my skill level (good or bad, you can ignorantly decide).

 

Premades aren't a second job ... you want to know how I form a premade?

 

/g Anyone want to do some pvp ?

 

Simple huh? You make as if forming a premade is some pact with the devil.

Edited May 17, 2012 by Orangerascal

[criminalheretic]

This is a multiplayer game.

 

Teamwork helps you win, that is how it should be. Go play a single player game if you dont like pre-mades.

 

Yeah, cause queing up with 7 strangers, to face off against 8 other strangers is not at all in the spirit of an MMO...

 

Get over yourself.

[olagaton]

Premades aren't a second job ... you want to know how I form a premade?

 

/g Anyone want to do some pvp ?

 

Simple huh? You make as if forming a premade is some pact with the devil.

For someone who doesn't have a consistent schedule, it certainly is a hassle to try to evaluate the skill level, develop strata, consistencies, reliabilities with a different set of players every time, and then be forced to run against premades that do play consistently as a result.

 

Its certainly not as simple as you claim it to be, for one reason or another.

[Khoraji]

Yeah, cause queing up with 7 strangers, to face off against 8 other strangers is not at all in the spirit of an MMO...

 

Get over yourself.

 

If you have been pvping on the same server for 6 months. there arent that many strangers left.

 

Try /ops to communicate with them and stop using premades as an excuse for losing.

[Astarica]

For someone who doesn't have a consistent schedule, it certainly is a hassle to try to evaluate the skill level, develop strata, consistencies, reliabilities with a different set of players every time, and then be forced to run against premades that do play consistently as a result.

 

Its certainly not as simple as you claim it to be, for one reason or another.

 

As long as you can evaluate talent you don't need the rest of that stuff, because if you're able to get 3 pretty good guys in your team you can just go with a generic strat like 'kill them all' and be reasonably confident that everyone on your team knows how to optimize their killing potential. It might not work against the very best premades but if you want to compete with them then yeah, maybe you should spend a little more effort.

 

I don't run premades because it's too much of a hassle, but if I do, I'd just first start grabbing all the good players I know of and see if they're interested. If they all join, that alone is sufficient to win the vast majority of the time.

[Khoraji]

For someone who doesn't have a consistent schedule, it certainly is a hassle to try to evaluate the skill level, develop strata, consistencies, reliabilities with a different set of players every time, and then be forced to run against premades that do play consistently as a result.

 

Its certainly not as simple as you claim it to be, for one reason or another.

 

It is that simple. No one is developing strats on SWTOR lol.

 

Wanna know how we form our pre-mades?

 

Step 1: Log-in

Step 2: /G Any room?

Step 3: Accept invite

Step 4: Q

 

takes 10 seconds.

[Nuzt]

Heres the thing, I hate getting into a WZ with a PuG only to be completely dominated by a pre-made BUT they are not ruining anything. BW botched the rateds so do you just expect these people to not group with guildies and friend because it might be unfair for the PuG ?

 

Most of them would rather fight other pre-mades because rolling over PuG's gets old fast and its just not enjoyable to enter a WZ knowing the opposing team has zero chance.

 

Blame BW for scamming everyone by giving no notice that rateds were not going to be released, now you have all the PvP people that re-subbed for rateds and are left with either not logging on or steam rolling PuG's.

 

In conclusion, they are ruining nothing, what they are doing is playing an MMO they way it should be played ... with friends and guildies.

[Orangerascal]

Yes, but what sort of standard deviation for a solo pugger should we assume, Mr. Wizard? What confidence interval do you suggest? 2 standard deviations? Oh, wait, you don't have any way to generate a trustworthy standard deviation?

 

Statistics innumeracy FTW!

 

Funny how you turn my statement into a mathematical analysis, little do you know I have a minor in math and statements like what you say prove to me that you know nothing about the subject matter at hand. Why you would calculate a 'trustworthy standard deviation' (lolz btw) is beyond me.

 

To humour you:

 

Assuming your chance of winning is 1/2 (safe assumption),

 

σ(P(1/2) = sqrt(1/2 (1-1/2))

so 1 standard deviation is actually 1/2

 

and after after 10000 games it becomes:

σ^2 = (10,000)(0.5)(1.0 - 0.5) = 2,500

σ = 50

 

And that's how you calculate a 'trustworthy standard deviation'. I'm not going to bother the rest of your drivel ... because it's just that drivel. Anyone with half a brain could call you out for the lolz. In fact I encourage them.

Edited May 17, 2012 by Orangerascal

[Orangerascal]

For someone who doesn't have a consistent schedule, it certainly is a hassle to try to evaluate the skill level, develop strata, consistencies, reliabilities with a different set of players every time, and then be forced to run against premades that do play consistently as a result.

 

Its certainly not as simple as you claim it to be, for one reason or another.

 

Do you really think premades do that ... you're in for a shock.

 

Most good premades talk about:

- How bad their opposition is

- How bad swtor's pvp is

- The next game they will play

 

But keep making excuses ... and more importantly keep thinking we talk like this:

'Excecute huttball plan Omega Alpha- 3"

[mikedee]

It is that simple. No one is developing strats on SWTOR lol.

 

Wanna know how we form our pre-mades?

 

Step 1: Log-in

Step 2: /G Any room?

Step 3: Accept invite

Step 4: Q

 

takes 10 seconds.

 

This actually works^

[Stratoforce]

There is no strategy to be had in STWOR. On every map you can see -exactly what the enemy team is doing- from the beginning. Which is why I laugh at premades that think they are good.

[Khoraji]

Do you really think premades do that ... you're in for a shock.

 

Most good premades talk about:

- How bad their opposition is

- How bad swtor's pvp is

- The next game they will play

 

But keep making excuses ... and more importantly keep thinking we talk like this:

'Excecute huttball plan Omega Alpha- 3"

 

Lol so true.

[Ahhmyface]

Do you really think premades do that ... you're in for a shock.

 

Most good premades talk about:

- How bad their opposition is

- How bad swtor's pvp is

- The next game they will play

 

But keep making excuses ... and more importantly keep thinking we talk like this:

'Excecute huttball plan Omega Alpha- 3"

 

Also, we talk about how bad our pug teammates are.

 

Here's how I made my premades and eventually my guild

 

1. Queue warzone

2. At the end of the match, add anybody that played well to your friends list.

3. If anybody on your friendslists is on /whisper <name> pvp?

/repeat

 

We don't even always use vent. Since I only group with good players, I don't HAVE to tell them what to do. They already know what to do. We just go own.

 

typical vent:

"man, i need to get my warhero patns"

"i got mine last night. that's what you get for buying d3"

"bastard. 2 inc left"

"how is it anyway?"

"it's pretty good. probably not long term game though"

"cool. help me kill samcu"

[dcgregorya]

It doesn't have to be stopped. They just need to merge the servers so the matchmaking system can do its job. The problem isn't 4 man pre-mades its 4 man pre-mades against PUGs because no one else is queuing.

[Zepidel]

Do you really think premades do that ... you're in for a shock.

 

Most good premades talk about:

- How bad their opposition is

- How bad swtor's pvp is

- The next game they will play

 

But keep making excuses ... and more importantly keep thinking we talk like this:

'Excecute huttball plan Omega Alpha- 3"

 

So much truth in this post its not even funny.

[dcgregorya]

i am going to go out on a whim here and guess that people that are against this run in premades. then i want to also say that most of these premades are filled with people that just like to roll pugs.

 

Usually I'll have a 2-3 man premade - sometimes 4. We don't "roll pugs" the enemy side always has their own premades. Even without group queuing, people in guildes would still always have an advantage over non-guilded people and tbh, if our premade isn't running we're not going to beat the other team's premade.

 

Anyway, the problem isn't premades. The problem is the lack of people queuing because the server populations are so low. Bioware supposedly has a matchmaking system that will match a 4 man against another 4 man - however, when there are no options available and only one game running, the rules relax until you can potentially be 6 pugs against an 8 man premade (2 4 man premades). This happens quite a bit on our server.

 

Anyway, merge the damn servers already or implement cross-server PVP and this problem will go away.

[Orangerascal]

Anyway, the problem isn't premades. The problem is the lack of people queuing because the server populations are so low.

 

Bingo !!!!!. This needs to be quoted ... a lot.

[iphobia]

typical vent:

"man, i need to get my warhero patns"

"i got mine last night. that's what you get for buying d3"

"bastard. 2 inc left"

"how is it anyway?"

"it's pretty good. probably not long term game though"

"cool. help me kill samcu"

 

^ so true

 

Most of the time the vent is used to talk random ****.

Edited May 17, 2012 by iphobia

[Astarica]

D

But keep making excuses ... and more importantly keep thinking we talk like this:

'Excecute huttball plan Omega Alpha- 3"

 

That's what my PUG swears the enemy team is running when the score is 5-0 and 4 of us are currently back at respawn. I always tell my side that they really executed the "Kill them all" plan which is clearly working well given 4 of us are back at spawn, but no one ever believes me.

[Astarica]

Anyway, the problem isn't premades. The problem is the lack of people queuing because the server populations are so low. .

 

The 'everyone besides me quit' creates some of the strongest 'premades' you'll get, because the guys who don't quit has a very strong bias toward picking the best players. A lot of time on my server it feels like there are only 10 Republics left, and guess what, every one of those guys is extremely good which is why they haven't quit in the first place. It might not be fun to be one of the 10 guys still on your side, but you'll definitely not be at a disadvantage versus premades. This is basically your side's elite and you'll dominate the vast majority of the games you play even if those 10 remaining guys all queued at random just because the average player in such a configuration is extremely strong.

[funkiestj]

To humour you:

Assuming your chance of winning is 1/2 (safe assumption),

You may have a minor in math but your ability to build statistical models is not very good. (no need to quote your later equations as they are based on a bad assumption above).

 

The original claim (paraphrased): if you PUG and you lose more than 1/2 of your matches, you obviously are below 50 percentile in skill.

 

In building a reasonable model of how a single subject's skill affects the probability that his team will win we need to account for:

1. random variation in friendly and enemy team composition
   
2. randomness in outcome even when #1 above is held constant
   
3. the subject in question's contribution to the probability of winning
   

 

There are a lot of random factors contributing to the result (your team wins or loses) when the subject solo PUGs an WZ.

 

Your assumption (50% chance of win for a 50% percentile skill subject) would be fine if we were doing 1 vs 1 match against an identical skilled opponent. But wait, even in this 1 vs 1 case, if we assume random variation in opponents then we then we account for this and the advantage that being more skilled confers. E.g. you may play 100 matches and be paired against stronger opponents in 73 of the matches.

 

In examining this far simpler case of 1 vs 1 PvP , we might assume a normal distribution of skill with a mean at 50 percentile but when Eddard (an 80th percentile in skill) faces off against Frank (a 50th percentile in skill) what is the probability that Eddard (or Frank) will win? I claim that you (nor anyone else) have no idea what this probability is.

 

Now, if we had a large pool of DATA from these mythical 1 vs 1 PvP matches we could develop a MODEL that predicts the probability of victory when 2 players with known ratings are matched. (ELO and variants are what are typically used in chess and Go). We could then either:

• use the model plus a scenario to calculate the variance and standard deviation. e.g. 50 percentile player plays 100 matches 1 vs 1 against an opponents randomly selected from the population.
  
• we could take the actual data we used to construct the model and estimate variance and standard deviation from the results (see Poker Tracker for a real world example of this being done for online poker)
  

 

Of course modeling the scenario of solo pugging in 8 man teams is much more complex than 1 v 1 PvP matches. The point of discussing the 1 vs 1 hypothetical is to point out how even this scenario is far too complex to be modeled by your formula.

 

I suggest that a single player (the subject) solo pugging warzones has far more in common with a person playing full ring (9 handed) no limit hold'em poker (a high variance activity) than a person playing tournament chess (a low variance activity). A solo pugger has no control over the selection of his teammates and enemies. A poker player has no control over the cards he and his opponents are dealt. Will a much more skilled poker player beat a weaker player in the long run? Of course. The point in question is "what constitutes the long run".

 

A very strong poker player (e.g. who's estimated win rate is 10bb / 100 hands and has a standard deviation of 80bb/100) often sees stretches of 10,000 hands in which they lose more than they win. If you google "poker risk of ruin" (or read the Mathematics of Poker) you will find plenty of analysis.

 

funkiestj: no math degree what so ever

 

EDIT: from a practical perspective, how do you know what your win/loss record is? SWTOR will tell you how often you win but not how often you lose. Do you keep meticulous written records of every huttball match? Do you PUG 80% of the time but group up premade 20% of the time? If so, do you track these results separately? If not, then we are relying on human memory when we evaluate the original claim of "if you lose more than 50% then you probably suck", which makes the original claim even more idiotic given the fallibility of human memory.

Edited May 17, 2012 by funkiestj
minor wording

[SentinelDranoel]

I disagree with you, playing on a premade that communicates effectively, know their game play, classes and are used to play with each other will always be more effective than a pug. Is very simple logic, anyone who has played MMOs for a while would understand that. Besides in pugs not everyone follow the leader instructions.

 

I have been lead for many pvp matches and always try to formulate a strategy from the beginning, around 50% of the ppl would follow this initial plan of attack the rest wil just go and do whathever they want. While a premade with a leader will know their strategy by heart and will always work as a team.

 

However, I think once rated wz come online premades will more than likely stop queing in pugs. The majority would be keen for a more strategical game IMO.

 

My 2C

 

No, I am going to solo queue for ranked warzone comms, especially if they add new dailies. it is not a premade or pug game, sorry neither of you are winning unless you come together.

[Orangerascal]

The original claim (paraphrased): if you PUG and you lose more than 1/2 of your matches, you obviously are below 50 percentile in skill.

I'm glad you're able to decipher so much from my 1 statement. You should become a detective. Or worse a rules lawyer working for WoTC.

 

I said: "If you're consistently losing more than 50% of your games, the problem is most likely you."

 

How you got: "I've made a statistical model of all my games from this, with nice pie charts and used Newb Tracker V. 1.04 to track my point progression, newbess factor and pawesomeness" is beyond me.

 

With what I said, I've highlighted 'consistently' to denote high population, and I've highlighted the 'most likely' part to take care of any statistical invariances and to pre-empt people like you who come up with the 'variance' argument. Basically I've said with three words what took a 5 paragraph post from you. Do you know why I can make this assumption and not need your fancy .... smancy poker tracker?

 

It's because of the "central limit theory" which basically says that given enough population (again the 'consistently' part), the little things like: opponents skill, your skill, gear, the colour of the moon, the type of underwear he is wearing, and all the different dimensions of variables don't matter. Why? Because over large populations they all even out (with a minor variance). This is why we have surveys/polls to determine who the next president is (within a small margin of error). More importantly the higher your population, the less the margin of error.

 

Hence I can make assumption like I make. Basically every other variable is cancelled and only you are the important variable. Also nowhere in my 1 liner did I mention anything about creating a statistical model about player A. This is an assumption you made, probably because you just purchased poker tracker v 3.02 and were keen to share your knowledge, even though it had nothing remotely to do with what I said.

 

Your problem is your attacking my statement from an applied perspective which isn't even mathematics, its applied maths which is much different then theorical math. My one-linear was purely theoretical. You on the other hand bought a book on poker, bought a piece of software that can do the calculations for you, and now you claim to be an expert on the subject matter. Good luck with that.

 

TLDR; You read a lot more into that one liner that you should have. Then incorrectly applied your poker tracker to it.

 

In any case good job derailing the thread. Bravo.

Edited May 18, 2012 by Orangerascal

[mikedee]

It's true, you might only que with 4 other people and use vent or mumble to coordinate your attacks but it's still a major major advantage over a group of 8 pug players, if adding insult to injury wasn't enough, you have 8 players making two parties then by dumb luck are grouped all together in the same Warzone match with them coordinating their gameplan and attacks on mumble/vent, it's so unfair and unjust that pugs must suffer the humiliation and disgrace of defeat against an unfair match between pug and premade, this must be stopped or no non-premade players will enter wz matches again.

 

When Mikedee responds to a thread, he never goes in casually; he comes with a premade geared to the max & Maurader ravages you to the face. In other words, he only knows one way to respond to anyone who doesn't agree with him. Don't take my word for it; look at his posts. So I wouldn't take anything he says personally; it's just the way he is.

All I do is win win win no matter what.

This is why I win all the time. I have my pocket premade always with me. With my pocket healers. I would say make friends. L2P. But I have said that before. Shoot just 1 shot the op on the forums. Noobdown.

Edited May 18, 2012 by mikedee