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Server Population is GROWING!


Azzras

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I told you my server name but you managed to avoid it ^^ Most populated EU. Besides event it's damn empty.

 

You read? i mean really? i didn't quote you, it was another poster, so please comprehend it before you make a comment back, thanks...

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You read? i mean really? i didn't quote you, it was another poster, so please comprehend it before you make a comment back, thanks...

No you didn't meant specific posters, you said about those all who whine about ghost towns. Yet I whine - since f2p cheap korean mmo grinding style have more healthy community than here :/

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BW is workin on it, Xfers with the new Legacy will take a lil to deal with, im sure the coding alone is a nightmare lol, all in due time, just hopefully not alot of time...

 

wow good point. people will expect to transfer all their toons and their legacy over. I can't even begin to think about how to do that. I don't think we will see xfers for awhile and when we do it will be without legacy.

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BW is workin on it, Xfers with the new Legacy will take a lil to deal with, im sure the coding alone is a nightmare lol, all in due time, just hopefully not alot of time...

 

 

Stop defending them, Bioware should have had this ready at launch as a back up. This is biowares fault alone.

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BW is workin on it, Xfers with the new Legacy will take a lil to deal with, im sure the coding alone is a nightmare lol, all in due time, just hopefully not alot of time...

 

A nightmare? Only logistically, not with coding. Each server has a database with entries, all you need is to create new entires and copy data from the other server. Folks do that all the time. The logistical problem is with the names, but other games have dealt with it.

 

And if they can't code it, hire interns!

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Quote: Originally Posted by mordredz

BW is workin on it, Xfers with the new Legacy will take a lil to deal with, im sure the coding alone is a nightmare lol, all in due time, just hopefully not alot of time...

A nightmare? Only logistically, not with coding. Each server has a database with entries, all you need is to create new entires and copy data from the other server. Folks do that all the time. The logistical problem is with the names, but other games have dealt with it.

 

And if they can't code it, hire interns!

 

Agreed , codings probably done. It's the logistics around;

 

Free or paid transfers

Target/destination servers

Frequency

Order

Positive marketing etc etc

 

.... all this stuff takes the time, however the delays can't be seen as positive.

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One of the main malfunctions in this discussion is lack of data. Someone looking at the fleet alone can't discern their server pop. Also, looking at the server pop once or twice isn't really useful.

 

That's like asking what is the number of people in the Georgia Dome (a stadium in Atlanta). When you look determines what your answer will be. If you look during a GSU football practice, versus a GSU football game, versus the Kenny Chesney/Tim McGraw concert, versus 2:00 am on a Sunday you're going to get different answers.

 

I keep a survey of numbers on my server. I try to log in and /who every level band and the level 50 advanced classes a few times a week during peak hours. (link to survey and results here)

 

As it turns out, Sanctum of the Exalted has about 1000 people on during peak hours, and our Rep to Imp ratio is about 1. Our server population is more-or-less steady since March when I started the survey, but is so variable that it would be difficult to see a slight trend either up or down.

 

Rep to Imp population #s and ratio 1-50, large set of unpaired data (somewhat uncertain).

http://i1204.photobucket.com/albums/bb420/scorpienne/General%20SWTOR%20Screenshots/rep_imp_ratio_1to50unpaired.png

 

Overall Rep to Imp Ratio (smaller data set of paired data, no 50s)

http://i1204.photobucket.com/albums/bb420/scorpienne/General%20SWTOR%20Screenshots/rep_imp_ratio_1to49.png

 

Breakdown of the classes of level 50 characters.

http://i1204.photobucket.com/albums/bb420/scorpienne/General%20SWTOR%20Screenshots/PeakHrsLvl50s.png

 

Please be aware that this is somewhat imperfect data, that it is self-reported, and may contain innacuracies.

 

If anyone else wants to actually provide numbers for their own server by taking that survey, then I'm more than happy to warehouse the data for public perusal.

 

Paige

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its growing in gw2, since no ranked wz

 

Good luck with GW2. It's playerbase is going to be a cesspool; the worst elements of COD, LoL and 4chan all rolled into a tight little package.

Edited by Jederix
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Please be aware that this is somewhat imperfect data, that it is self-reported, and may contain innacuracies.

 

It's more than just "somewhat imperfect." Every time I have seen you post a link to this spreadsheet I have pointed out two serious flaws:

 

1. The self-selection bias: You admit this exists, but you don't acknowledge the seriousness of the problem.

 

2. In the L50 column, just over 50% of entries are listed as either "100" or "100+" which suggests potentially serious under-reporting of player counts.

 

Please address these flaws.

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It's more than just "somewhat imperfect." Every time I have seen you post a link to this spreadsheet I have pointed out two serious flaws:

 

1. The self-selection bias: You admit this exists, but you don't acknowledge the seriousness of the problem.

 

2. In the L50 column, just over 50% of entries are listed as either "100" or "100+" which suggests potentially serious under-reporting of player counts.

 

Please address these flaws.

 

 

Kthx,

 

I believe that I'd addressed these same comments previously, and I'm sorry if you didn't see them. I'm more than happy to readress them for you and the other fine folks here.

 

Previous response to these comments is here:

 

http://www.swtor.com/community/showpost.php?p=4118827&postcount=93

 

1. I acknowledge that self-reported data can lead to serious uncertainty. It is unknown if this uncertainty biases the data up or down.

 

I have already flagged two data points and removed them because they are anomalous AND I don't know those two people. In the first case, the reporter indicates there are 5 people on the server, and I just don't believe that - probably someone throwing in wonky data to be a griefer. In the second case the reporter indicated that there were 231 juggernauts present, which I also just don't believe. These two points weren't used.

 

The data used was reported by me, by my live-in boyfriend, by my guild second in command, by the leader of another guild I'm friends with, and by one of my guildies that has a reputation for good judgement. Where the data is reported by Rakshasa, Vetala, Steppinrazor, Loogala, Matiswinthia, Annora, Alejandro, or Jamnipari, that data is likely to be accurate because I either *am* that character, or the player is well known to me and is someone I believe to report accurately. That is the bulk of the data. It's possible that we have miskeyed some of the entries, but that's a random error, not a systematic error, and is not likely to bias the data either way.

 

 

2. If you'll actually *look* at the analysis, you'll see that a value of 100 or 100+ for the 50s is never used as part of the dataset. The 1-49 data is grouped as such for *exactly* that reason. The 50's only class breakdown is based *only* on the level 50 class data. The unpaired data that shows our total server pop includes ONLY the 50s that were censused using the class breakdown.

 

As one of my personal heroes, George Box, once said, "all models are wrong, some are useful". This survey models the real population on my server, and it's wrong; it is an imperfect census of the actual population. Until and unless BW releases demographics data or some way to get at real demographics data, we can only record observations and look at them scientifically and hope to extrapolate from them.

 

Regardless, this model is useful because it gives some insight to the server population and the groups within that population. For instance, who knew that nearly 30% of the online population during peak hours were 50s? Or that nearly 17% of those guys are sorcerers? That's pretty interesting and informative and cool to know.

 

It's an imperfect survey. If you have time/money/effort-appropriate suggestion to increase the utility then I'd love to hear them.

 

 

 

Paige

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Nice try, but all of this sounds like a desperate, last-grasp (albeit very articulate) attempt to rationalize away what everyone can see. The flaws in the analysis are not actually addressed, just pushed into the corner and painted over. We can speculate endlessly over why it is, what went wrong, and what could be done, but no one can seriously argue with the reality that the game is in decline.

 

The significant questions at this point are:

 

1) Will BW do server merges?

2) Will SWTOR go FTP?

3) Will any of the business relationships between BW, EA and Lucas change?

4) Will BW find a way to add the kind of content that actually turns the trend around?

 

Complicated questions.

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No one can seriously argue with the reality that the game is in decline.

 

Only if they have already made up their mind that the game is in decline. We lie to ourselves all the time and it goes both ways. As to wether the game is growing or declining, the only people who actually know is BW and EA. But I would go out on a limb and say it's growing as it's been shown on the homepage that the game is expanding into new countries and territories, that suggests there is a consumer base wanting to play.

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Even if the pop is rising, there is still never enough people in the black hole to get a Torvix group, never enough people on the fleet to do leveling flashpoints and the economy for items below lvl 49 is so dead its practically non existent.
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Even if the pop is rising, there is still never enough people in the black hole to get a Torvix group, never enough people on the fleet to do leveling flashpoints and the economy for items below lvl 49 is so dead its practically non existent.

 

People either don't know about these dailies or are uninterested. I have yet to find a group for the 4 man myself. On Fatman...

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All week I did groups throughout every planet while leveling an alt. Sometimes 1, sometimes 2 people. Out of the 8 outstanding players I have met through doing this, 5 of them were brand new to the game. First time grouping outside of Esseles or heroics, etc. It was great to see the enthusiasm they bring to the game, and honestly, it gave me a refresher. I would rather lose 10 people who hate the game and do nothing but bad mouth it, and receive 5 new players who are enthusiastic about it. I know those aren't the numbers. I do not know how many we have lost and how many we have gained. I guess we will have to wait until the next quarter to find out for sure, since the numbers this month people think are "padded".
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