Gohlar Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 (edited) My rough estimate is 2.5M Active Subscribers LOL WoW another super dev / financial expert / analyst with great experience who base is expert view of a game by the wind that come out of his ***. Are you blind? People are leaving in huge numbers. Most servers are ghost towns. Or is this a trap.... Edited February 4, 2012 by Gohlar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnExponent Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Hopefully the next patch would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainmerkin Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I will wait and see, my server certainly seems to be getting busier and busier but without official comments who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samborino Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 It all depends on when Bioware/EA start offering free trials to the game. If the price remains the same - new sales will have ground to the expected trickle... maybe 50k/month and I have no doubt they'll be losing customers faster than that. In that scenario... there won't be a lot of people on the 30-day free period... so I'll say we're probably looking at something just a bit over 1 mil... 1.2... 1.1. If they do start giving out free trials... or have free trial weekends and count those people as 'active subcribers' - I have no idea. It could reach the 2.5 mil you mention. They definitely said in the press release that they are going to sink some of the money back into marketting so i would assume that could include free trials. For the wow numbers they dont include free trials as subs though so i would assume the same would be true for SWTOR and EA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samborino Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 So let me see: 3 weeks into release and 2 million customers are playing SWTOR, the server cap is maxed out and new servers are created. The server list reads full/heavy for 90% of the servers. 6 weeks later we are told 1.7 million people are still playing yet when we look at the server list it reads Heavy for about 10 servers and Standard/light for the other 90. Even the most idiotic person can see that there are nowhere near 1.7 million people playing. I would estimate 500k and that's being generous. But I do understand that many people are younger than me that play this game and they are very impressionable, EA figures released will be believed by these young adults. I however have been playing games since Airbourne ranger on the old Atari console, I have been in business for 25 years and know what PR is all about. Anyway you fanboys keep thinking this game is doing well. I am off to level up my new Bountyhunter and Operative as I had to ditch my 2 high level guys and start again because the server became too empty I could not even do heroics. Yeah this game is booming alright The most idiotic person may just be you. If you didnt have your head up your *** you would know that they increased the server caps by double. So a server with a queue during launch would now be a standard server etc. I dont know how many times people keep having to tell you naysayers this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marroc Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LOL Are you blind? People are leaving in huge numbers. Most servers are ghost towns. Or is this a trap.... Funny considering population on Lord Praven is still increasing noticably on a daily basis (multiple fleet instances were unheard of for Republic in December - now we get it all the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samborino Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Im not calling for the death of TOR but seems to me the server pops dropping, not growing during prime time from what Ive seen! Ive seen 1 heavy server in the last 3 weeks and I routinely log in around 7 pm est every day! So Im going to guess at the end of 3 months they will be around 1.1-1.3 million subscribers. Which is still reasonable to be honest. Typically MMORPGs that release strong have a drop for the following 6-9 months and then once the short term players weeded out they grow or fail after that on word of mouth. Even the much vaulted WOW lost subs for the first 9 months after release before turning it around and growing their playerbase (and they had the ultra blind battlenet fanbois to prop them up with). Long as TOR doesnt lose more then 50% of its first 2 month subs (pre launch and 1 st 1.5 month sales) its doing ok. If it starts dropping 70%-80% of its subs by end of 3rd month like SWG did, then its in trouble. TOR long term success will live and die on its updates and first expansion. Fun game but simply to easy and quick to hold initial player sales much past the 6 month mark at the latest. The updates and promise of first expansion is going to have to bring in the long term sales as TOR was designed (wrongly IMO) as a short term game. But Im sure the haters will say Im wrong and predict much harsher failure and the fanbois will claim Im wrong and say TOR is greatest thing since slice bread. That seems to be the trend on these forums. PS: If EA/Bioware starts offering free trials with in the 3 month period (really with in the 24 month period), expect RIFT type results. Free trials 3 months after release are a death sentance to a MMORPG and send a clear message that this game can not hold its players long term. May as well offer up Lifetime subs while they at it. Im gonna say the same thing to you, the server caps were doubled a few weeks after launch. Didnt any of you guys notice that one day they magically didnt have server queues anymore Here you go "I want to take a second to correct the reports which speculated that a lack of congestion was a sign of slow participation. Shortly after launch, we doubled the efficiency of each server, allowing us to handle twice as many players and remove the waiting lines. The lack of congestion is a function of great engineering." Source transcripts from an ea conference call : http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gohlar Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 (edited) Funny considering population on Lord Praven is still increasing noticably on a daily basis (multiple fleet instances were unheard of for Republic in December - now we get it all the time). While that may or may not be true, the rest of the game appears to be dieing a slow, painful death. To suggest that people are not leaving is just crazy. The Corsair was busy, now it's a ghost town just like 90% of the other servers. They are looking at server merges/closures already. Not good. Edited February 4, 2012 by Gohlar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samborino Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 LOL Are you blind? People are leaving in huge numbers. Most servers are ghost towns. Or is this a trap.... The forums would probably have you beleive that wouldnt they. Its amazing how much more delusional naysayers get when good news comes along. We all told you guys you were delusional before the numbers were released but now "everything is a conspiracy" and "everybody is lying". lol its actually pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gohlar Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The forums would probably have you beleive that wouldnt they. Its amazing how much more delusional naysayers get when good news comes along. We all told you guys you were delusional before the numbers were released but now "everything is a conspiracy" and "everybody is lying". lol its actually pretty funny. I'm going off 1st hand experience and the server list. Wake up man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safiir Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 To suggest that people are not leaving is just crazy. Of course people are leaving :/ There are over 2m copies sold and only 1.7m active players. If you think anyone suggests that noone has left then you must be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gohlar Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 (edited) Of course people are leaving :/ There are over 2m copies sold and only 1.7m active players. If you think anyone suggests that noone has left then you must be crazy. Ok, a LOT of people are leaving. Server merges/closures are already needed. That is a really bad sign for a game this new. I haven't seen anything like this since Warhammer. Edited February 4, 2012 by Gohlar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samborino Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 While that may or may not be true, the rest of the game appears to be dieing a slow, painful death. To suggest that people are not leaving is just crazy. The Corsair was busy, now it's a ghost town just like 90% of the other servers. They are looking at server merges/closures already. Not good. Could you link your source that say they are looking at server mergers and closures already? Because they doubled the server size a few weeks after launch and there are still tons of heavy servers (33 at 6 pm today on NA) a heavy server would be a server that had a rather long queue at launch and a standard server would be a very heavy / full server at launch etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samborino Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 (edited) Ok, a LOT of people are leaving. Server merges/closures are already needed. That is a really bad sign for a game this new. I haven't seen anything like this since Warhammer. Link your source for server mergers please Because like i just said today at 6 pm 33 heavy servers, 13 light servers and the rest standard and like i said a standard server would have been a server that was very heavy or full at launch because they double the max server population. Edited February 4, 2012 by Samborino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gohlar Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 (edited) Could you link your source that say they are looking at server mergers and closures already? The vast majority of servers are light population. Endless feedback about how there is nothing to do/nobody to play with at 50. Just common sense. Why would they keep all these empty servers? Link your source for server mergers please What link? I'm using common sense. See above. Edited February 4, 2012 by Gohlar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samborino Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 (edited) The vast majority of servers are light population. Endless feedback about how there is nothing to do/nobody to play with at 50. Just common sense. Why would they keep all these empty servers? What link? I'm using common sense. See above. So you say "they are thinking about server mergers" but you really have no idea your just guessing. That just shows your full of **** already, because you said "they are thinking about it" like it was stated somewhere by them or they have some plan to do so when its really just you who's saying that. See above to see how i proved you wrong in every way about healthy server populations. Edited February 4, 2012 by Samborino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safiir Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Ok, a LOT of people are leaving. Server merges/closures are already needed. That is a really bad sign for a game this new. I haven't seen anything like this since Warhammer. Riiiight...care to share which are those games that had a higher retention rate after the first month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gohlar Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 (edited) So you say "they are thinking about server mergers" but you really have no idea your just guessing. See above to see how i proved you wrong in every way about healthy server populations. I didn't say that. I said they are needed. They are. Don't put words into people's mouths, you end up eating your foot. Edited February 4, 2012 by Gohlar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ommelito Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Bio, please do something about the realms. Its like 50 realms and its standard on every, peoples start to drop becouse of inactive realms. Instead of having so many, merg 1-2 realms togather and fix more content, and this game will continue growing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ommelito Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 htrhthht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gohlar Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Bio, please do something about the realms. Its like 50 realms and its standard on every, peoples start to drop becouse of inactive realms. Instead of having so many, merg 1-2 realms togather and fix more content, and this game will continue growing! Careful, everyone is going to tell you to not trust what you see and pretend nobody is leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samborino Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Ok, a LOT of people are leaving. Server merges/closures are already needed. That is a really bad sign for a game this new. I haven't seen anything like this since Warhammer. Warhamming sold close to 1.5 million copies and had 750,000 subs after 1 month Thats a 50% retention swtor had an 85% retention how are those even close to being similair. http://warhammeronline.com/pressreleases/20081010.php Also see how i post sources for my info, you should try it sometimes. Oh wait you cant because your pulling so called facts out of your ***. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gohlar Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 (edited) Warhamming sold close to 1.5 million copies and had 750,000 subs after 1 month Thats a 50% retention swtor had an 85% retention how are those even close to being similair. http://warhammeronline.com/pressreleases/20081010.php Also see how i post sources for my info, you should try it sometimes. Oh wait you cant because your pulling so called facts out of your ***. Ah man, I do feel for you. It must be hard to argue when inside you know, for a fact, that you are completely and utterly wrong. Take a look at the server list and go back in your cave lol. Leave discussion to people not blinded by...not even sure what to call it....delusion? That facts are sitting right in front of your face chief. Maybe you should face them. Edited February 4, 2012 by Gohlar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samborino Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Bio, please do something about the realms. Its like 50 realms and its standard on every, peoples start to drop becouse of inactive realms. Instead of having so many, merg 1-2 realms togather and fix more content, and this game will continue growing! Okay first of all, they doubled the server size for realms about 2 weeks after launch "I want to take a second to correct the reports which speculated that a lack of congestion was a sign of slow participation. Shortly after launch, we doubled the efficiency of each server, allowing us to handle twice as many players and remove the waiting lines. The lack of congestion is a function of great engineering." From an ea conference call source: http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call And at 6pm i looked at the servers today 33 heavy rest standard and 13 light. If they kept the same server caps at launch a standard server now would be very heavy / full, and a heavy server would have a queue with a huge amount of people. Do you get it now? The server status have gone down because they increased the max server populations by double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gohlar Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Okay first of all, they doubled the server size for realms about 2 weeks after launch "I want to take a second to correct the reports which speculated that a lack of congestion was a sign of slow participation. Shortly after launch, we doubled the efficiency of each server, allowing us to handle twice as many players and remove the waiting lines. The lack of congestion is a function of great engineering." From an ea conference call source: http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call And at 6pm i looked at the servers today 33 heavy rest standard and 13 light. If they kept the same server caps at launch a standard server now would be very heavy / full, and a heavy server would have a queue with a huge amount of people. Do you get it now? The server status have gone down because they increased the max server populations by double. Dude you can't tell people they are wrong when they log into an empty server every day. This is just sad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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