NOW = 1.7 Million Active Subscribers | 3 Months from now = Guess What

[Drewser]

Because those thresholds actually have any significance.

 

According to the guy that said none of the servers are heavy anymore.

 

BTW, what is significant? 1.7m subs fastest MMO to 1M.

[WarTornPanda]

Yeah my agenda....despite the fact I have a years sub to WoW. And I catually still play...not just hang out on the forums to defend TOR....like so many WoW fans do here.

 

In any event you really want to listen to the next Blizzard investor call.

 

You didn't actually address the information provided.

 

Not only does WoW dwarf TOR, but TOR is losing subscriptions at a faster rate. More precisely...

 

"During today's Activision Blizzard investor call, it was announced that WoW has a total of 10.3 million players. This is down from the 11.4 million subscribers announced in March 2011. That means that 1.1 million players no longer play the game, a decline of about 10%."

 

11.4 to 10.3 million PAYING subscriptions from March to November 2011.

 

TOR sold over 2 million copies and has lost AT LEAST 300,000 subscriptions. The true number of lost players is probably closer to over half a million when you account for the subscriptions still in their free month.

 

2 to 1.7 million TOTAL subscriptions from December 20th, 2011 to February 1, 2012.

Edited February 5, 2012 by WarTornPanda

[Jett-Rinn]

You didn't actually address the information provided.

 

Not only does WoW dwarf TOR, but TOR is losing subscriptions at a faster rate. More precisely...

 

"During today's Activision Blizzard investor call, it was announced that WoW has a total of 10.3 million players. This is down from the 11.4 million subscribers announced in March 2011. That means that 1.1 million players no longer play the game, a decline of about 10%."

 

11.4 to 10.3 million PAYING subscriptions from March to November.

 

TOR sold over 2 million copies and has lost AT LEAST 300,000 subscriptions. The true number of lost players is probably closer to over half a million when you account for the subscriptions still in their free month.

 

2 to 1.7 million TOTAL subscriptions from December 20th to February 1.

 

I just want to know when a 85% retention rate became a bad thing? But War that is what you are here for to keep up the Blizzard spin.

 

[WarTornPanda]

I just want to know when a 85% retention rate became a bad thing? But War that is what you are here for to keep up the Blizzard spin.

 

 

Not at all. You brought up WoW, not me. I'm just saying that your evidence of WoW "dying" is unsubstantiated and your rebuttal of 85% retention rate does little to refute my previous statements. In fact, you simply agreed and implied it was a good thing to lose subscribers.

 

You also know it isn't 85%. The free month isn't up for many accounts still. You can expect these numbers to continue to drop.

 

I wanted TOR to be successful, but I can see now that it's just going to slide by on the Star Wars intellectual property. It's not going F2P. It's not dying. It's just mediocre. I subbed for another month to see how the game would turn out and to continue playing with my friends. They don't really play anymore so here I am. Alt+tabbing between missions and sharing my opinions.

[xscesive]

 

EASY fanbois...im an EA stock holder i want this game to succeed.

 

^^^^^this

[Deyjarl]

http://www.guildwars2movies.com/video/66/Guild-Wars-2-Live-Demo-at-Gamescom-Farewell-party

 

Oh yeah? I'm not exactly a GW2 Zealot, I just can see they're doing it right for the most part. We'll see how it turns out of course, and because GW2 is sub free, it isn't a danger to sub games Really, unless it turns out more fantastic than anyone can dream yanno? However, this is testament to it's performance, the machines they run at these cons are not 2000 dollar machines (unless they're alienware laptops) I've been to shows, I know what's inside these machines.

 

How many fps you think SWTOR would get on a GTX 580 rig with that many people? Granted, you can see FPS drop, however, it's over 100 people in an extremely tight clump. Lower your gfx setting a bit and you'll get great fps. This is a Beta client at that, optimization left to be done.

 

It simply can't be denied.

 

Also background song = win.

 

Graphics don't look any better than GW1. And still disappointed they butchered game lore from the first 3 releases, to become more WoW like.

 

That said, with the same graphics engine essentially, their world PvP should run fairly decent with large numbers of players.

 

Just wondering if they will go through the constant nerfing of builds like they continually do now, hence their nickname build wars.

[Graburr]

Just wondering if they will go through the constant nerfing of builds like they continually do now, hence their nickname build wars.

 

they do that on purpose, to freshen things up and don't let a FOTM exist for too long. and given you only paid for a box a few years back, it says a lot.

[Touchbass]

I just want to know when a 85% retention rate became a bad thing? But War that is what you are here for to keep up the Blizzard spin.

 

 

This game is not going to NEVER, and I mean NEVER have a retention rate that high. Bioware is using a clever situation to make the numbers see high but the truth down the road will tell the tale for all to see

[Touchbass]

Not at all. You brought up WoW, not me. I'm just saying that your evidence of WoW "dying" is unsubstantiated and your rebuttal of 85% retention rate does little to refute my previous statements. In fact, you simply agreed and implied it was a good thing to lose subscribers.

 

You also know it isn't 85%. The free month isn't up for many accounts still. You can expect these numbers to continue to drop.

 

I wanted TOR to be successful, but I can see now that it's just going to slide by on the Star Wars intellectual property. It's not going F2P. It's not dying. It's just mediocre. I subbed for another month to see how the game would turn out and to continue playing with my friends. They don't really play anymore so here I am. Alt+tabbing between missions and sharing my opinions.

 

Pretty much this, the amount of units sold isn't even remotely that impressive for the amount of money spent on the game considering the franchise. Bioware had a great opportunity to kick it to the MMORPG market with Blizzard stagnating but this effort is medicore at best.

[Vecke]

WoW was a cultural phenomenon. No game will be a "WoW killer" because the circumstances that allowed WoW to become so successful no longer exist. WoW introduced MMOs to mainstream gaming. Millions of people that didn't play MMOs tried it with WoW and discovered they loved the MMO formula.

 

These people weren't only won over by WoW. They were won over by the modern iteration of the MMO.

 

No other game can do that, because the mainstream is now familiar with the genre. They're already introduced to the genre by WoW, which eliminates a massive amount of the awe that came with people as they discovered WoW.

 

And it's true of all of us. We all have a special love for the game that introduced us to the thrill of stepping into another world. For me, it was EQ1. No game will ever capture my imagination like EQ did. Every MMO since has been fun, but none have been quite so exciting. And WoW is that introduction to millions of people.

 

So no matter how great a new MMO is, the millions of players that came to the genre through WoW won't be as awed because it won't be a new experience any more. That's why they scream this is a "WoW clone." Anybody that's played MMOs for years can see that this game isn't a clone of any other game. It's simply a game that fits the model of the genre, with a few small tweaks (which is normal).

 

So, considering the fact that WoW managed to give the mainstream its introduction to MMOs, the definition of success can't be measured by WoW's numbers.

 

Me personally, I just want this game to be successful enough to stay up and running and get decent amounts of funding toward adding regular content. The numbers released in this press release are optimistic in that regard. Not guaranteed, obviously, but they are optimistic.

[Touchbass]

WoW was a cultural phenomenon. No game will be a "WoW killer" because the circumstances that allowed WoW to become so successful no longer exist. WoW introduced MMOs to mainstream gaming. Millions of people that didn't play MMOs tried it with WoW and discovered they loved the MMO formula.

 

These people weren't only won over by WoW. They were won over by the modern iteration of the MMO.

 

No other game can do that, because the mainstream is now familiar with the genre. They're already introduced to the genre by WoW, which eliminates a massive amount of the awe that came with people as they discovered WoW.

 

And it's true of all of us. We all have a special love for the game that introduced us to the thrill of stepping into another world. For me, it was EQ1. No game will ever capture my imagination like EQ did. Every MMO since has been fun, but none have been quite so exciting. And WoW is that introduction to millions of people.

 

So no matter how great a new MMO is, the millions of players that came to the genre through WoW won't be as awed because it won't be a new experience any more. That's why they scream this is a "WoW clone." Anybody that's played MMOs for years can see that this game isn't a clone of any other game. It's simply a game that fits the model of the genre, with a few small tweaks (which is normal).

 

So, considering the fact that WoW managed to give the mainstream its introduction to MMOs, the definition of success can't be measured by WoW's numbers.

 

Me personally, I just want this game to be successful enough to stay up and running and get decent amounts of funding toward adding regular content. The numbers released in this press release are optimistic in that regard. Not guaranteed, obviously, but they are optimistic.

 

Really good analysis, I liked your use of out of the box thinking. I think a lot of what you said has truth in it.

[WarTornPanda]

WoW was a cultural phenomenon. No game will be a "WoW killer" because the circumstances that allowed WoW to become so successful no longer exist. WoW introduced MMOs to mainstream gaming. Millions of people that didn't play MMOs tried it with WoW and discovered they loved the MMO formula.

 

These people weren't only won over by WoW. They were won over by the modern iteration of the MMO.

 

No other game can do that, because the mainstream is now familiar with the genre. They're already introduced to the genre by WoW, which eliminates a massive amount of the awe that came with people as they discovered WoW.

 

And it's true of all of us. We all have a special love for the game that introduced us to the thrill of stepping into another world. For me, it was EQ1. No game will ever capture my imagination like EQ did. Every MMO since has been fun, but none have been quite so exciting. And WoW is that introduction to millions of people.

 

So no matter how great a new MMO is, the millions of players that came to the genre through WoW won't be as awed because it won't be a new experience any more. That's why they scream this is a "WoW clone." Anybody that's played MMOs for years can see that this game isn't a clone of any other game. It's simply a game that fits the model of the genre, with a few small tweaks (which is normal).

 

So, considering the fact that WoW managed to give the mainstream its introduction to MMOs, the definition of success can't be measured by WoW's numbers.

 

Me personally, I just want this game to be successful enough to stay up and running and get decent amounts of funding toward adding regular content. The numbers released in this press release are optimistic in that regard. Not guaranteed, obviously, but they are optimistic.

 

You are absolutely correct. Which means that a launch like SW:TORs will inevitably crash and burn.

 

However, I believe that you do not account for the people that want to replace WoW as their MMO of choice. There has yet to be a game that launches with all the features and polish of WoW, let alone anything that truly expands on the genre. And until that day comes, new MMOs will live and die in a matter of months. There is a next "big thing". It just hasn't arrived yet. I put my money on Titan, but that's because I think Blizzard is the only developer right now with that capability to do so. Experienced developers, patient investors, and a rabid fan base is the only recipe for massive success in this genre.

[Zatanic]

Also depends alot on when diablo3 and GW2 and the likes comes out.

The other alternatives for ppl getting bored here.

[Larce_Apollo]

Steady Mill until more stuff is added and polish is done to various systems. Game has a lot of similar history to WoW when it first came out, and forum e-peen as well. Edited February 5, 2012 by Larce_Apollo

[WarTornPanda]

Steady Mill until more stuff is added and polish is done to various systems. Game has a lot of similar history to WoW when it first came out, and forum e-peen as well.

 

In 2004, not 2012.

 

People don't have that kind of patience when there are alternatives available.

[RedMix]

Thresholds for server population has absolutely nothing to do with the success of this game. "Heavy" could be 200 players for all you know.

 

I know for a fact from doing /who on every class and subclass that the threshold for "Heavy" is well over 2400 players. 3000 players over 123 servers is nearly 370,000 concurrent players.

[WarTornPanda]

I know for a fact from doing /who on every class and subclass that the threshold for "Heavy" is well over 2400 players. 3000 players over 123 servers is nearly 370,000 concurrent players.

 

Source?

[MustrumRidcully]

Source?

He describes his methodology:

from doing /who on every class and subclass that the threshold for "Heavy" is well over 2400 players

So you can verify yourself.

[WarTornPanda]

He describes his methodology:

 

So you can verify yourself.

 

Then he is obligated to provide evidence. Burden of proof. He makes the claim, he backs it up. I'm not going to do the footwork for him.

[Surakis]

Then he is obligated to provide evidence. Burden of proof. He makes the claim, he backs it up. I'm not going to do the footwork for him.

 

Odd....

 

You are absolutely correct. Which means that a launch like SW:TORs will inevitably crash and burn.

 

Source?

[WarTornPanda]

Odd....

 

Source?

 

My opinion. You can disagree if you would like, then we may do battle. I don't need a source for conjecture.

[Quiet]

In 3 months, they'll be about 3 million subscribers due to all the people quiting WoW after finding out how bad the panda expansion is.

[MustrumRidcully]

Then he is obligated to provide evidence. Burden of proof. He makes the claim, he backs it up. I'm not going to do the footwork for him.

 

What kind of evidence is he to give you that you would believe? Would you accept screenshots of every request he made and the comparison to a standard load? One could still ask if he couldn't have "photoshopped" the results or something.

 

The point of giving other people the methodology to achieve his conclusions is that you don't have to rely on some data he wrote down somewhere. You can just replicate what he did.

 

He outlined how he managed to get the results. You don't believe that the results are true? Now the burden is on you - show how repeating his measurements leads to a different conclusion.

[WarTornPanda]

What kind of evidence is he to give you that you would believe? Would you accept screenshots of every request he made and the comparison to a standard load? One could still ask if he couldn't have "photoshopped" the results or something.

 

The point of giving other people the methodology to achieve his conclusions is that you don't have to rely on some data he wrote down somewhere. You can just replicate what he did.

 

He outlined how he managed to get the results. You don't believe that the results are true? Now the burden is on you - show how repeating his measurements leads to a different conclusion.

 

/sigh...

I know for a fact from doing /who on every class and subclass that the threshold for "Heavy" is approximately 300 players. 300 players over 123 servers is nearly 36,900 concurrent players.

 

Unreasonable? Yes, but I feel that it illustrates my point well enough. I can fudge the numbers however I want and make my claim. Now that I've done so. Refute it. You have the methodology.

Edited February 5, 2012 by WarTornPanda

[PhazeFadis]

The thing people are overlooking here is how quickly "box" purchases of this game dried up in January.

 

Unless they start giving away free trials - what is going to bring more people to the game?

 

Find me evidence of any game where new features were added... a patch... whatever... and people suddenly started buying it in droves at $60 copy months after it came out.

 

 

I'm not an expert in MMO retention rate and churn - but I do know that whatever the % retention after 1 month... there will be continued attrition of those individuals in the 2nd... 3rd... and continuing months.

 

To even maintain subscriptions they have to be replaced with resubs or newsubs. I don't see any reason for massive resubs... and even in the first month after launch, the newsub rate doesn't look like it could keep up with the drop rate.