NOW = 1.7 Million Active Subscribers | 3 Months from now = Guess What

[bearchubbs]

If bioware continues crushing bugs and keeping up with new content while making quality of life upgrades I honestly see in 3 months over 2 million players.

 

If this continues, perhaps within a year, 3 million?

[Vecke]

Wouldnt it be so easy for someone from Bioware to just come into this thread and say yes it was as of feb 1st and just shut them up. They can even say we will not reply to all issues but to clear up any bad rep that we might be getting we will clarify that it was s of feb 1st and not dec.

 

Dont try and sy they dont read these forums either. They have people reading the forums and scanning chat logs all day long.

 

But they already have done exactly that. They said "In just over a month..."

 

It's physically impossible for that statement to be based on 12/31. So when you say, "wouldn't it be easy for them" to come in and say yes, you're actually saying, "Wouldn't it be easy for them to come in and say yes again, because we didn't believe it the first time."

 

The information they gave in the press release and the Q and A afterward was completely explicit in what those numbers mean. If people choose not to believe it the first time, what makes you think they'll believe it the second time.

[Emeda]

Friday night at 6 pm, i did a tally last night 33 heavy servers (also it went from 28 heavy to 33 during the ten minutes i was checking , i refreshed a few times)

 

13 light and the rest standard.

 

 

Not to mention about a week and a half to 2 weeks after launch they doubled the maximum server capacity as stated here

"I want to take a second to correct the reports which speculated that a lack of congestion was a sign of slow participation. Shortly after launch, we doubled the efficiency of each server, allowing us to handle twice as many players and remove the waiting lines. The lack of congestion is a function of great engineering."

http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call

 

So a server that was full at launch would have become a standard server and a standard server would have become a light server etc. So the server pops have most likely grown since launch not shrank.

 

I have to question this. How can they just double the size of a server. Is it really possible. I mean when they set up a server its intended to hold a certain amount of people why would they put in a server and plan to run it at 1/2 capacity to begin with. To me that just look right.

 

Why would any company plan on setting up a server to run at 50%. Maybe 90% to give them some room but 50? SO were they just wasting money running servers at 1/2 capacity or are they now running servers at over 100%. Also looking at graphs of servers since launch I do not see any large fluctuation to show when this increase was made.

 

The next day wouldnt you expect the numbers to be somewhere 1/2 of what it was. I dont believe they increased the servers then by some miracle they just balanced out to look like what they were before

[SpinelessNJ]

I just discovered the website Guild Wars 2 Guru and went through all the information the guys collected from Guild Wars 2 so far. In terms of features and how cool those features are, I think GW2 tops SW: TOR in every way. This game has potential, but damn GW2 will be launching with **** load of features when compared to what this game launched with. Kind of scary when compared to this game, feature wise. Bioware need to step it up. That's just what I think.

 

GW2 already runs better, looks better, sounds better, has better pvp, better pve, and its an early alpha build. This game is a pile

[Samborino]

Wouldnt it be so easy for someone from Bioware to just come into this thread and say yes it was as of feb 1st and just shut them up. They can even say we will not reply to all issues but to clear up any bad rep that we might be getting we will clarify that it was s of feb 1st and not dec.

 

Dont try and sy they dont read these forums either. They have people reading the forums and scanning chat logs all day long.

 

Its as clear as day that thats what they meant based on both of those post. So why would they bother.

 

Youd have to be blind not to see it. "we currently have" from an interview on that day

 

"In just over a month we" from the actual press release.

[Samborino]

I have to question this. How can they just double the size of a server. Is it really possible. I mean when they set up a server its intended to hold a certain amount of people why would they put in a server and plan to run it at 1/2 capacity to begin with. To me that just look right.

 

Why would any company plan on setting up a server to run at 50%. Maybe 90% to give them some room but 50? SO were they just wasting money running servers at 1/2 capacity or are they now running servers at over 100%. Also looking at graphs of servers since launch I do not see any large fluctuation to show when this increase was made.

 

The next day wouldnt you expect the numbers to be somewhere 1/2 of what it was. I dont believe they increased the servers then by some miracle they just balanced out to look like what they were before

 

They wanted to see how popular it was and spread players out among the new servers they created before upping the max server population.

 

They purposely set it quite low to begin with. I dont know the exact numbers but ppl were saying it was 2500 max pop before. It would be pretty simple to do if they purposely set it lower to begin with.

 

What do you mean "by some miracle they just balanced out to look like what they were before"

 

There were queue's on most servers a week after launch then one day they just vanished , poof no more server queue's on any of the servers. Now the overall population has gone up since then and alot of the servers are starting to be on heavy at peak hours again.

[Grometsc]

My rough estimate is 2.5M Active Subscribers

What's yours?

 

500K if that

[Vecke]

Just for clarification... to the folks that still think this game is a failure (or is going to be a failure), I have a question... how do you define success? This isn't a dig. I'm just curious. What would Bioware have to accomplish in regards to sales for you to come to this forum and say, "Okay, I admit it. This game's a success"?

[Emeda]

Its as clear as day that thats what they meant based on both of those post. So why would they bother.

 

Youd have to be blind not to see it. "we currently have" from an interview on that day

 

"In just over a month we" from the actual press release.

 

I think its feb 1st also. But wouldnt it be easy just to clarify it for everyone. First how could it hurt anything. Some still wont believe it sure but some will accept that any dought they had has been answered.

 

What company would really not want to try to stop people from "hating" the game when they can easily clarify something. Also how many times has someone from a statement said something after the fact of Just to clarify we are talking about active subs as of feb 1.

 

I guess pubplic relations isnt a strong suit for them.

[JeremyDale]

Just for clarification... to the folks that still think this game is a failure (or is going to be a failure), I have a question... how do you define success? This isn't a dig. I'm just curious. What would Bioware have to accomplish in regards to sales for you to come to this forum and say, "Okay, I admit it. This game's a success"?

 

Technically it's a success if it makes money.

 

If you define success though as to rather or not this game lived up to expectations, then I'd say it's unsuccessful.

[Emeda]

They wanted to see how popular it was and spread players out among the new servers they created before upping the max server population.

 

They purposely set it quite low to begin with. I dont know the exact numbers but ppl were saying it was 2500 max pop before. It would be pretty simple to do if they purposely set it lower to begin with.

 

What do you mean "by some miracle they just balanced out to look like what they were before"

 

There were queue's on most servers a week after launch then one day they just vanished , poof no more server queue's on any of the servers. Now the overall population has gone up since then and alot of the servers are starting to be on heavy at peak hours again.

 

OK explain this then

 

http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/12/20/stephen-reid-addresses-swtor-server-load-issues/

 

at the bottom of the first paragraph he says that some servers are close to reaching their absolute maximum. I didnt know that you could double close to an absolute maximum and still not reach maximum level.

 

Or did they somehow find a way to double the servers but they cant find a way to fix FPS and other issues in over a month.

Edited February 5, 2012 by Emeda

[wrmrstacrdwower]

well on average in the MMO industry new release MMO's will loose about 20% of the players that purchase the game within the first free month. After that it depends on the game. AoC and Aion lost probably about 15-20% per month of active subs time after the first monthly billing came up sooo ...... I would say for SWTOR:

 

Assuming at the launch of the game all 1.7M users at launch and that purchased played the first month.

-1.7 M @ purchase

 

-1.3m M after free month.

 

-1.1M after first billing cycle.

 

-1M after the second billing cycle.

 

And if they haven't evened out the issues with class balance, mechanics and bugs I would expect by the 6 month mark *676 260 players with an active sub.

[rfcsoulja]

Technically it's a success if it makes money.

 

If you define success though as to rather or not this game lived up to expectations, then I'd say it's unsuccessful.

 

In your opinion. I didn't expect this game to be God's gift to man right out of the box. I do enjoy it, thus to me it is successful.

[Deyjarl]

Have they even released in Asian markets yet?

[Aleeha]

There are going to be 3209280359820394823049812390812340928340293840293850293840293482039852039482093482039482095802938420935780296803495812983712983729358723942398472039582304982304982305698230948203491982731938189271095801312391872368764230958230490124719487093245

 

New subs in the next six months. This is the greatest thing ever created in the history of the known universe.

[oursacrifice]

100% wrong. By stating the above you are simply making known to all of us that you have never participated on quarterly earnings calls.

 

I participate every 3 months.

 

But hey, 12 year old Star Wars nerds know more about the business industry so yeah YOU GUYZ ARE RIGHT BECAUSE IT'S BENEFICIAL TO STAR WARS THE OLD REPUBLIC!

[wesmarshall]

I think GW2 tops SW: TOR in every way.

 

Really? You do? Have you played GW2 yet? I think SW: TOR has the hands-down advantage in being in a currently playable at all state. Remember how crazy excited we all were for this game to launch? And then you played it? And you're not excited anymore? If it happened with this game, it'll happen to with GW2, also.

[Selaik]

I participate every 3 months.

 

But hey, 12 year old Star Wars nerds know more about the business industry so yeah YOU GUYZ ARE RIGHT BECAUSE IT'S BENEFICIAL TO STAR WARS THE OLD REPUBLIC!

 

You mad bro?

[Xrayll]

Keep in mind alot of mmo's are worldwide. SWTOR is only EU and US... No idea on what it could should or will be. I'll be here though thats for sure, having fun.

[dyves]

OK explain this then

 

http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/12/20/stephen-reid-addresses-swtor-server-load-issues/

 

at the bottom of the first paragraph he says that some servers are close to reaching their absolute maximum. I didnt know that you could double close to an absolute maximum and still not reach maximum level.

 

Or did they somehow find a way to double the servers but they cant find a way to fix FPS and other issues in over a month.

 

Sigh.

They also stated that they were going to increase player cap when they feel it was needed.

It isn't as if what BW is doing is something new, other MMO companies did the same at their launch, to spread the population out over all available servers, and also to not have thousands of people hovering around in the same starter area. Rift started with like a 1250-1500 player cap and only after a few days they raised it to 2000 player cap for a server.

BW did the same for SWTOR, gradual cap increase for server populations when they saw the need, also not for all servers the same increase.

[Akirator]

I participate every 3 months.

 

But hey, 12 year old Star Wars nerds know more about the business industry so yeah YOU GUYZ ARE RIGHT BECAUSE IT'S BENEFICIAL TO STAR WARS THE OLD REPUBLIC!

 

Well then you obviously know what you're talking about. I mean who could argue with that logic. /sarcasm

 

 

And even though that last statement made you look like the 12 year old, it seems like some of them do indeed know more than you. Or at least have common sense and reading comprehension.

[Epixxxx]

I just discovered the website Guild Wars 2 Guru and went through all the information the guys collected from Guild Wars 2 so far. In terms of features and how cool those features are, I think GW2 tops SW: TOR in every way. This game has potential, but damn GW2 will be launching with **** load of features when compared to what this game launched with. Kind of scary when compared to this game, feature wise. Bioware need to step it up. That's just what I think.

 

GW2 will flop.

 

Its like RIFT with a cooler logo.

[WarTornPanda]

You guys are so blind. You realize that a large portion of those 1.7 million haven't paid for a subscription yet?

 

2 million copies sold.

300,000 already gave up.

Who knows how many accounts haven't ended their free month yet.

Who knows how many accounts have paid for more than a month and cancelled.

 

3 months from now? 750,000 subscribers. It will probably settle to around 300,000-500,000 after a year. Feel free to bookmark this and quote me.

[VenthiosLestaran]

GW2 will flop.

 

Its like RIFT with a cooler logo.

 

Way to do your research bud. Game functions entirely differently than RIFT thankfully. As for the comment about being playable at all. Lots of people have played GW2 at trade shows, for much longer than you were allowed to play SWTOR. In SWTOR you were allowed to play the staring area and for a very limited amount of time.

 

GW2 trade show timers offer 40 minutes and optional pvp/high level content/low level content. They literally let you test whatever aspect of the game you want to see if you'll like it or not. Why didn't SWTOR let us do this at trade shows? By the current state of the game, we know why.

 

I'm not saying that GW2 will be the biggest smash hit ever, in fact it'll probably appeal to less players than SWTOR given how absolutely different it is in terms of game play mechanics and the philosophy surrounding the game, but that's okay.

 

GW2 doesn't need to maintain a gigantic amount of subs to be profitable, thankfully they didn't go that route.

 

Oh and before you guys say enjoy the cash shop, it's confirmed by dev's it'll be cosmetic armor skins only, which is great because people love buying that stuff, I know I do. Expansions and content may be episodic, but I'm fine paying 14.99 or so for content every so often rather than once a month.

 

Defend SWTOR where it needs to be defended, don't bash other games and companies that Literally want nothing to do with SWTOR - at all.

[Akirator]

You guys are so blind. You realize that a large portion of those 1.7 million haven't paid for a subscription yet?

 

2 million copies sold.

300,000 already gave up.

Who knows how many accounts haven't ended their free month yet.

Who knows how many accounts have paid for more than a month and cancelled.

 

3 months from now? 750,000 subscribers. It will probably settle to around 300,000-500,000 after a year. Feel free to bookmark this and quote me.

 

Actually to quote from the Q&A "Active subscribers means anyone paying OR in their trial period. A majority of those 1.7m are paying at this point." So most are actually paying for a sub.