Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold

[zrinking]

It almost seems the haters are just making stuff up.

 

They are.

 

They are so desperate for this game to fail they will say anything or spin any stat to "prove it"

[Scritty]

85% retention for the first month is about what I expected, since most of us don't have 50s yet and are still enjoying the leveling process.

 

Yeah - but I think they were hoping for an increase, not ~"holding onto 85%"

[Drewser]

Sorry, but much like your ridiculous claim that Metacritic user ratings were the "industry standard" your wrong again.

 

MMO junkies reads the server stats page from this website so all they can read is the status. There is NO way for them to factor in actual population, so your claim that they factor in when a servers cap is changed is nonsense.

 

If Low is 500 players and the next day Bioware makes Low 1000 people MMO Junkies has no way of knowing this, all they know is that the server is reporting Low.

 

Here is the MMO Junkies FAQ btw, feel free to show me where it states otherwise.

 

http://www.mmo-junkies.net/topic/210-swtor-statistics-tool-faq/

 

BTW, the site also says this:

Can I make guesses on overall subscription count based on these graphs?

No you shouldn't be relying on them to make so guesses. These graph purely relies on instantaneous server population values provided by Bioware, nothing more.

 

Wait, Scritty started that thread? If so, no reason to take any of his posts seriously.

[zrinking]

I haven't sold a guide since May 2011.

 

So you are an admitted Gold/credit farmer.

 

Interesting.

[PhazeFadis]

Your 500K is a complete guess though. The only thing we know from the call is that 'most' of the 1.7m are past their trial period and into their first subscription period.

 

The current numbers are not up for interpretation as to whether they are fail or success. Currently it is a success and that can't be disputed.

 

If you want to dispute something, it is whether or not similar numbers can be maintained. As of right now, it is a VERY BIG success.

 

500k isn't a complete guess... it's a good estimate based on numbers we know and approximately know.

 

Whether or not this indicates success is, of course... up to interpretation.

 

Yes.. if they maintain 1.5 million subscribers, I would say TOR would be a pretty nice financial success... in the early months you're probably looking at EA spending about $10 million/mo on the game, with anticipation that those costs will drop to $5 million/mo by the end of the year.

 

On the other hand, if subscirbers quickly drop below 1 million (say by June)... you're going to see an awful lot of hand wringing.

[Scritty]

Sorry, but much like your ridiculous claim that Metacritic user ratings were the "industry standard" your wrong again.

 

MMO junkies reads the server stats page from this website so all they can read is the status. There is NO way for them to factor in actual population, so your claim that they factor in when a servers cap is changed is nonsense.

 

If Low is 500 players and the next day Bioware makes Low 1000 people MMO Junkies has no way of knowing this, all they know is that the server is reporting Low.

 

Here is the MMO Junkies FAQ btw, feel free to show me where it states otherwise.

 

http://www.mmo-junkies.net/topic/210-swtor-statistics-tool-faq/

 

BTW, the site also says this:

Can I make guesses on overall subscription count based on these graphs?

No you shouldn't be relying on them to make so guesses. These graph purely relies on instantaneous server population values provided by Bioware, nothing more.

 

Nope - I said they factored in the CHANGE in server cap.

I never said they knew what that was

 

Trends are down. Even AFTER the change in status name the trend is down

 

The cap was raised a while back, overnight, across all servert EU and US. We should have seen a step in the graphs where this was ...there isn't one.

 

We also see activity figures CONTINUE TO GO DOWN EVEN AFTER THE CHANGE.

 

I'm not sure if your being deliberatley obtuse , or your just not that bright.

Player figures are down and going down more week by week

 

It's a fact

Live with it

 

I

[Vlacke]

They are.

 

They are so desperate for this game to fail they will say anything or spin any stat to "prove it"

 

That's because they are pathetic trolls, bunch of haters and whiners, basement dwellers who don't know anything else than to bash or predict doom for this game and yet they are still here paying subscription and playing, hypocrisy at it's finest.

[Matte_Black]

15%-20% maybe well approx 17.5% roughly have left the game since start.. Isn't that what the report said.. TBH given the raising of server caps I'll say 15% have left since launch.

 

I see no problem except you saying the same thing as us except we're getting our figures from a financial report and you're getting your figures based on unknown moving goals which are server load indicators

 

It doesn't not change the figures much but keep, in mind we are comparing total sales to current active subscriptions. Don't assume all sales were activated and un-subbed. I can't imagine there were many copies bought that were not activated but, who knows how many were set aside as unopened collectors copies, badly chosen gifts or redundant copies because someone could not wait for shipping, how returns are reported or what have you.

[Scar]

85% retention rate and you think they were expecting more? You people crack me up. Most MMOG's would slice their mother in half for a 35-40% retention rate.

[quantumsheep]

So between January 8th and Febraury the numbers dropped by 20% (as accurate as these charts get, since they are only guesswork based on the server-stats). In that time the free month ended and even according to the real numbers published by EA there has been a 15% drop in subscriptions. So the difference between the guesswork and the real numbers is 5%, which is pretty good. For guesswork.

 

Of course in the end none of these numbers (either real or made up) say anything about the long-term success of the game, but saying the game is doomed based on server stats is just as stupid, as it is to assume the game will be the most successful MMO ever, because it had a decent launch-period.

 

If you read it, it says 'unique' daily log-ins.

 

What that means I don't know if I'm honest.

 

If you're a 'fanboy', as you put it, then it could mean 1 million accounts log in every day.

 

If you're a 'hater', then it means that you log in with 6 alts (for an average of the 4 hours play time on each in a 24 hour period). Or six times with one toon in a day for an average of 4 hours.

 

I have no beef with you, or anyone really. I'm not BW fan per se (I've only played Mass Effect 1, not tried 2 yet, and not a fan of fantasy based stuff personally like Dragon Age, though it's obviously a hugely profitable part of the market).

 

I *am* a Star Wars fan, though. Have been since I was a kid. I played SWG, but even that game died for me when everyone left.

 

I tried WOW for a month a few years ago - couldn't get into it thanks to the fantasy setting. I could see it was a very polished game, and people that appreciate the setting must have had a blast playing it!

 

Yes, it's a PR piece by EA. Based on their figures for the game. Yes, there are things wrong with the game, and there are areas I would dearly love to see expanded on, fixed.

 

But 1 million people logged in every day is a good figure. 1.7 million active subs is a good figure.

 

Those are what we've been given. In an official investors thingy to boot.

 

Trying to find faults from other sources, based, as others have said, on guesswork, doesn't help anyone, and looks like grasping at straws to me.

 

 

But that's just me I guess.

 

Please, carry on - I just wanted to throw that out there!

 

QS

 

EDIT: I think I quoted the wrong thing - oh well!

Edited February 2, 2012 by quantumsheep

[Scritty]

So you are an admitted Gold/credit farmer.

 

Interesting.

 

How does selling a gold guide make me a credit farmer?

I wrote a gold guide (it's free on that site). I used the techniques to make a ton of gold.

Playing the market was part of the game. In fact towards the end of my time with WoW I did it more than anything else. It was great fun.

 

Had alts in Booty bay from both factions (I have vids showing you how to get a level 1 of either faction to Booty bay) and did X faction trading, logistics, mule runs, stock buyouts. Brilliant. It may notr sound like fun to you,. but I (and many others) love that aspect of MMO's. Together with involving crafting it was a game in itself.

 

Hell after Cataclysm came out, playing the market was a lot more fun than instancing or levelling.

 

I have a character with it's own guild on Anachronos (EU) and 11 million gold in the guild bank. Never sold any of it..never would. But if you want some. log in and I'll post you 100,000 G (genuine offer) How's that for fair?

 

What's the problem with that?

[Runeshard]

Nope - I said they factored in the CHANGE in server cap.

I never said they knew what that was

 

Trends are down. Even AFTER the change in status name the trend is down

 

The cap was raised a while back, overnight, across all servert EU and US. We should have seen a step in the graphs where this was ...there isn't one.

 

We also see activity figures CONTINUE TO GO DOWN EVEN AFTER THE CHANGE.

 

I'm not sure if your being deliberatley obtuse , or your just not that bright.

Player figures are down and going down more week by week

 

It's a fact

Live with it

 

I

 

Seeing as they didn't know the actual caps for the servers in terms of players before the change and certainly not after, how exactly are you saying they factored in this change without having any way of knowing how big it was etc etc?

[PhazeFadis]

85% retention rate and you think they were expecting more? You people crack me up. Most MMOG's would slice their mother in half for a 35-40% retention rate.

 

It is not 85% retention rate.

 

EA is very clear in the conference call what that 1.7 million represents and it has been discussed in many posts in this thread.

[Jxspyder]

This is a PR piece written by EA.

How does that prove anything?

Daily log in's is a meaningless stat. You might log on 8x a day. Every time you change from one alt to another that's a log in. Over 1 million a day sounds very low to me in that case.

 

Server stats. Hard figures. How many people are online.

MMO junkies also takes into account changes in the labels and server pop increases (to answer the poster above)

 

If you read the FAQ on their site it's all there (remember to remove your fanboy blinkers first, they might get in the way) So if "Moderate", becomes "Low" (as happened) that is all factored in. (If it wasn't you'd see an even more humungous leap one day when that happened - there is none)

 

You can find articles where EA and Bioware toe the line and quote shareholder pleasing figures all you like.

I prefer to see the numbers

MMO junkies have the numbers

 

If you choose to ignore them that's up to you

Doesn't make you right though.

 

8 times a day, for an average of 4 hours each? That would be 32 hours a day. That's pretty impressive.

 

And for someone who continually complains about people being blind and fettered.....you're awfully blind in your insistance.

[Jxspyder]

I must admit watching the haters rage here and at massively.com and mmorpg.com is quite amusing, but cheer up, haters...over 300k people still quit before the first month was up.

 

85% retention for the first month is about what I expected, since most of us don't have 50s yet and are still enjoying the leveling process. It will be interesting to see if they mention sub numbers at the next quarterly, and if they still have over a million. I still think they'll be lucky to have 500k left by the 6 month mark, without major improvements and content additions.

 

 

 

EA's fiscal 2012 runs Apr 1 2011 - Mar 30 2012, so TOR launched in their Q3 (Oct-Dec).

 

Good thing they've already layed out added content and improvement plans for the next year then.

[Scritty]

Seeing as they didn't know the actual caps for the servers in terms of players before the change and certainly not after, how exactly are you saying they factored in this change without having any way of knowing how big it was etc etc?

 

Taking JUST the pre-change figures shows a decline

Taking JUST the post-change figures shows a continuing decline

 

The best a change would show up as would be a big one day "blip" where there was a sudden and false decline when these changes were made.

Yes, that one day would be a false decline. But it would not invalidate the KPI's being measured before or after as long as they were interpreted as trends and taken in context. Trends would continue either side of that false day where the UOM was changed (unit of measure) and lo-and-behold they do..and the trend is DOWN

 

The change was a while ago now. It happened on one day across all servers

And the trend post the change, after it's one day effects have been felt...is still down.

 

The trend is down (arrgghhh)

[Cor_Blimey]

I just want to post to laugh at all the people who were saying two days ago that they think the active subscribers is as low as 100k people.

 

Don't you look stupid now.

[rafter]

500k isn't a complete guess... it's a good estimate based on numbers we know and approximately know.

 

No it's not, it's a complete guess. I have no clue where you pulled that number from but I have a good idea.

 

The only numbers we know are these:

2 million sold

1.7 million subscribers

300k left the game

 

Nowhere in those numbers can you come with 500k anything.

 

Seeing as they didn't know the actual caps for the servers in terms of players before the change and certainly not after, how exactly are you saying they factored in this change without having any way of knowing how big it was etc etc?

 

They didn't, he's wrong, again.

 

It is not 85% retention rate.

 

EA is very clear in the conference call what that 1.7 million represents and it has been discussed in many posts in this thread.

 

Oh really?

 

2 million minus 300k = 1.7 million or 85% still playing.

 

Sorry, that's 85% retention rate.

Edited February 2, 2012 by rafter

[Kthx]

TServer stats. Hard figures. How many people are online.

MMO junkies also takes into account changes in the labels and server pop increases (to answer the poster above)

 

If you read the FAQ on their site it's all there (remember to remove your fanboy blinkers first, they might get in the way) So if "Moderate", becomes "Low" (as happened) that is all factored in. (If it wasn't you'd see an even more humungous leap one day when that happened - there is none)

 

As I and many have pointed out, MMO junkies shows the server load, expressed in a numerical scale from 1 to 5, aggregated across all servers. This is stated very clearly in the FAQ (http://www.mmo-junkies.net/topic/210-swtor-statistics-tool-faq/):

 

These graph aggregates all instantaneous server population values. So a value of 800 (in y-axis) with a total number of 215 serves means; 800 / 215 = 3.7 ( ~ heavy population)

 

The scale used is as follows:

 

Light - 1

Standard - 2

Heavy - 3

Veary Heavy - 4

Full - 5

 

In other words, the numbers do not show population and you cannot infer the population from the numbers, unless you also know what the server caps are.

 

Nowhere does it say that the charts were adjusted for the raising of the population caps, which means that some of the early decline in the charts is caused by the caps changing, not by the population dropping. If you think the FAQ states otherwise, please cite the section in question.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Kthx

[Scar]

It is not 85% retention rate.

 

EA is very clear in the conference call what that 1.7 million represents and it has been discussed in many posts in this thread.

 

I understand that. And I don't remember saying that they had that. I'm commenting on others saying that EA had "hoped for higher" than an "85% retention rate" (which again was their words, not mine). At which point that shot by stupidity and now is borderline on insanity because 85% retention rate is so far out of the realm of reality that no one, repeat no one, would ever expect that nor would they be even more foolish to expect higher.

 

Only about 30% of the people in WoW ever get by level 10, and people are saying they would be disappointed with an 85% retention rate?

 

Good lord you people are nuts.

[Vlacke]

Taking JUST the pre-change figures shows a decline

Taking JUST the post-change figures shows a continuing decline

 

The best a change would show up as would be a big one day "blip" where there was a sudden and false decline when these changes were made.

Yes, that one day would be a false decline. But it would not invalidate the KPI's being measured before or after as long as they were interpreted as trends and taken in context. Trends would continue either side of that false day where the UOM was changed (unit of measure) and lo-and-behold they do..and the trend is DOWN

 

The change was a while ago now. It happened on one day across all servers

And the trend post the change, after it's one day effects have been felt...is still down.

 

The trend is down (arrgghhh)

 

Hey SCRITTY you are obviously taking this too hard man, don't hang yourself because this game is doing good in spite your wishes, clean up your troll cave instead, be productive.

[Zatanic]

If you sell 2 mil and have 1.7 subs you have a decline, doesnt take much math to know that.

[Supercracker]

Nope - I said they factored in the CHANGE in server cap.

I never said they knew what that was

 

Trends are down. Even AFTER the change in status name the trend is down

 

The cap was raised a while back, overnight, across all servert EU and US. We should have seen a step in the graphs where this was ...there isn't one.

 

We also see activity figures CONTINUE TO GO DOWN EVEN AFTER THE CHANGE.

 

I'm not sure if your being deliberatley obtuse , or your just not that bright.

Player figures are down and going down more week by week

 

It's a fact

Live with it

 

I

 

You my friend.......are butthurt.

 

Don't know the numbers but on Sunday around 6 pm central....every US server was at standard with 36 being in heavy mode and 8 being full. I know this cause I check after another butthurt idividual was saying the game was dead.

 

Every person that has said their server is dead is from the Republic side...but it isn't dead...they just have low numbers on republic side which is going to happen...just like it did with WoW and how it is today with WoW.

 

 

fyi I believe I read somewhere that WoW has 10 million subs but has also lost 10 million subs over the course of the game....people quit and come back and new guys join...its how mmos work...get over it.

[ChicksDigHarleys]

Yeah - but I think they were hoping for an increase, not ~"holding onto 85%"

 

I doubt anyone that has paid attention to population trends in the vast majority of MMOs expected the pop to grow after release. I certainly didn't.

 

That being said...has EA even advertised this game on TV yet? All I've seen are Google ads.

[rafter]

I doubt anyone that has paid attention to population trends in the vast majority of MMOs expected the pop to grow after release. I certainly didn't.

 

That being said...has EA even advertised this game on TV yet? All I've seen are Google ads.

 

I record a couple of shows on Scyfy and there are at least a couple of ToR commercials during each show. I've also seen them on other channels as well.

 

Right now they are doing a lot of the tie-in commercials with TPM 3D.