jameslively Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nov13! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doddsie Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 1)let's assume, for arguments sake, that physical pre-orders and digital are even, since there is no available origin data. I think them presales were from online orders, but id have to check. 2) again, let's take that poll and assume savvy, hardcore players are members of forums, voted in the poll, and pre-ordered early on Origin. So even if the poll is 4:1, the sample is skewed towards more hardcore users, as casual users are probably more likely to order physically, and at a later date, thus eventually evening out physical vs. digital to 1:1. These are the only factual figs we have, so its all we have to make any views. if bioware would release the preorder registration figs then we would be sorted knowing how many would log each month, but for some unknown reason they dont want to do that, thinking more than we will panic rather than sit down logicaly like i did and work out what could happen. remember most people dont care that they wernt picked, they are just resenting not being told any usefull info. 3) There are 1 million pre-orders listed on that chart, we'll say 1 million digital users, forming 2 million pre-orders. remember not all the physical orders have been getting their preorder codes, and not striaght away some places have been rubish at getting people preorder codes. im not sure as many people would be out in shops as you think to preorder, personaly my local video game store only started advertising this last week. 4) based on those prior assumptions, we assume the digital pre-orders are more front-loaded timewise than physical orders. this makes sense given the chart you posted doesn't exibit that much front-loading in july on the physical pre-orders (only 119000 in july) and SR has tweeted that there was a heavy spike of pre-orders that month. so say the 4:1 poll is accurate for July, and there were 100,000 physical pre-orders and 400,000 digital in July. That would be 500,000 in July, or 1/4 of all pre-orders, hence why they only got to July 28th on Day 1 with the waves. That heavy spike in July is right, because them july figs are for a few days in july where the rest of them are for a whole month. 119k sales in just over a week is pretty high. but thats a starwars fan base thats buying there. not general public, every starwars geek around would have tried to buy in them first 2 weeks. 5) Bioware has stated that people will be pleasantly surprised by when they get in, and cited the huge July spike, and said they plan to increase the amount of people let in Day 2. Since they didn't get through July, lets say they let in 400,000 people, and plan 600,000 today on Day 2. That's 1 million people, or 1/2 of pre-orders. Yes i know, which is why i really dont understand why they dont give out full pre order info, i was more than impressed when i looked at the sales, there seemed to be a lot more got in yesterday than they would let on to. you know most of yesterday people were saying 10k per wave, but looks like it was more than that. i think if everyone saw how many people ordered and when they COULD potentionaly get in, they will be more chilled and prepared to wait. 6) By that logic, Day 2 should reach September today (maybe mid-september?) Depends really if they let in more: ) hopefully they will and they did say double, so yes i would hope to see at least a few in there from sept. 7) Day 3, if they let in around 500,000, thats 3/4 of pre-orders, going into November. Maybe if they continually ramp it up they let everyone in Day 3, but I don't know. they wouldnt be letting in that many day 1 100k 2 200k 3 200k 4 300k(maybe) which would get them onto 800k preorders in 4 days, day 5 getting that to a million, 6 maybe would be when they open the flood gates, which would mean like posted "everyone will get at least 1 day" 8) If they dont let the last group of people in on Day 3, by my guesstimations the final group of late November and December pre-orders should be allowed in Day 4 on Friday, letting everyone play the weekend -- thus making everyone "pleasantly surprised" to be playing by the weekend. This, just by human rationale, makes sense, to plan to let everyone play on the weekend before launch. Now, that's a hell of a lot of conjecture, and I could be completely off base, but that's how I break it down My gut feeling is that every will be in on Friday. Half a million by day 3 is still pretty impressive, and remember these are my conservative figures, they will probably have let in much more. Well i would hope that too, but im not sure, it all depends on the preorder info really which we cant have. : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thalen_Loire Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 28 November. Im thinking Saturday, Friday at the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvhen Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Not true. They are inviting more people today. They are just doing it in four equally sized waves. The waves are not equal in size to yesterday's waves but only to each other as today's waves. I was considering that, but in that case, he should have worded his sentence differently, in the context of what he was writing it would refer to yesterdays waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasrik Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I wonder if some of the 'later registrations' are due to being guild linked with early registrations ? so they are all getting dragged in at the same time I pre-ordered on Nov 29, and my guild is deployed (some are already in); I am still waiting for my invite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix_Down Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 November 15th here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swayde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 my bill says $5 for preorder, so is it free time? Yes, that $5 is a deposit which will be deducted from the cost of the game, so you still pay the same total amount as anyone else, even those who get NO early access and buy after launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FkzAz Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 November 5. The low novembers will probably get in tomorow or Friday. The high novembers will probably be saturday cuz there was a big boom of sales in the "open" weekend beta 25/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaia Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I have good feelings about tomorrow. I figured the point of the extra two days of early access was to get almost all the preorders in for the full five days. They know the servers can handle that, that's why we had a stress test I thought, so I'm hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AaYaA Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Unless Im blind I cant see the date I redeem the code so I cant proof it But I swear to god im in. I did pre order in july but redeem in november. So keep faith guys ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Markovnikov Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 30th here. we're never get in, let's face it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baskcm Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 21st of novemember for me i can wait though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undies Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 11/14 here, hoping that is early enough before the influx hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xerotrigger Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 11/29 here I was really hoping for Thursday, or even Friday, but at this rate I'm not so sure I'll even see the weekend. It's more than just a little disheartening, but all you can do is sit and wait and hope your number get called while it's still reasonable to call it "early access". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altherion_bear Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm hoping for today or max tomorrow.29.11.2011 here ^^Just started playing Jedi Outcast again ,teehee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windwald Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) November 28, here I am. Edited December 14, 2011 by Windwald Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pthulhu Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I really dont understand why the hell they cant add the cut off date for each wave so we have some idea of what is going on and at least an idea of time frame. The wait wouldnt be nearly as bad if they would just communicate the process a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sebasownz Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 11/01... I have a feeling we get in around friday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyG Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 November 18th here... My guess is probably not until Sunday for me, but I'll be happy to be proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebdecker Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 November 9th...I'm thinking probably Friday. Got a friend who pre'd (ha) in September, so when he gets in I'll start feeling more confident about my own timeline. I'm dyyyiiiinnngggg with excitement- today is devoted to re-watching the good trilogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sKyloo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 got my e-mail at 9:05 am ! redeem code november 17 ! See you in game ! troll?!lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lyon Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) If today goes as optimistically well as I hope We can see up TO October in today due to the lower number of Pre-orders after July till November. Mine is... 11.16.11 Here's to hoping for tomorrow xD Edited December 14, 2011 by Lyon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waldgrim Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Unless Im blind I cant see the date I redeem the code so I cant proof it But I swear to god im in. I did pre order in july but redeem in november. So keep faith guys ! The details are in your account under "Code Redemption" Mine is 11.29.2011 Star Wars™: The Old Republic™ Early Game Access: Ready to patch -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11.29.2011 Star Wars™: The Old Republic™ Standard Edition Pre-Order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AaYaA Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 troll?!lololol Unless Im blind I cant see the date I redeem the code so I cant proof it But I swear to god im in. I did pre order in july but redeem in november. So keep faith guys ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackyV Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nov 16th here. Doubtful it'll be today, possibly tomorrow, likely friday. (I hope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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